Hot Stove, part deux
Yesterday I commented on the Neifi Perez signing, and with the winter meetings approaching, it's time to discuss the rest of the Cubs options this offseason. I think the Cubs biggest needs have been pretty well established: Shortstop, Outfield, Leadoff hitter, and Bullpen help. They could use upgrades elsewhere, but those are the biggest holes to be filled. I've already given my opinion on the SS/Leadoff problem, and a heaping helping of Furcal would satisfy both needs. As for the rest of the holes...
I'm going to give the Left field job to Matt Murton. He's hit well at every level of the minors, and I'd like to think he can keep it going. He doesn't project to be a big power guy, but he can probably hit .290/.350/.480, with 20 HRs or so. That'd be more than enough, and a large step up from the '05 Left fielders. Since Murton has yet to prove himself over the course of a full season, though, the Cubs need to acquire a decent fourth Outfielder in case he falters. And here inlies a problem. The Cubs have had good fourth outfielders in the past, like Todd Hollandsworth, but Dusty has overused these players to the point of all effectiveness being wasted. So the Cubs need to acquire a decent fourth outfielder that's on the short side of 30 yet brings enough stability so that he could be counted on to man the position capably for a few months before the trading deadline. If the Kevin Mench rumors are true, he would fit the bill perfectly.
In Right Field, I'd love to see the Cubs sign Brian Giles. He's a little old, but he's still incredibly productive. The numbers being thrown around hint that a three year deal might be enough to sign him, and I'd make that deal in a heartbeat. He's got a tremendous batting eye, and would fit the heart of our lineup like a glove. If they get outbid on Giles, I'd like to see the Cubs make a run at Hideki Matsui. The Yanks want him back, but might be forced to part with him if they end up signing Giles. If the Cubs fail on Matsui, it's time for Hendry to get creative. Two years ago he dealt a top prospect for a guy nobody knew was available, and that guy ended up being Derrek Lee. That turned out pretty well. Perhaps a Shawn Green or Pat Burrell could be made available? Just dangle a pitching prospect or two and voila, a new Right Fielder that nobody saw coming. If Hendry strikes out on the trade market, he'll have to go the stopgap route again. There's some decent guys available, but none would be worth more than a one year deal for four or five million. Guys like Reggie Sanders, Juan Encarnacion, and even Jeromy Burnitz could be brought back.
In Center, it's pretty clear that Corey Patterson is a goner. Hopefully Hendry doesn't wait till the fan convention in January to unload him, like they did with Sosa last year, because the market will be extremely thin at that point. As for his replacement, lots of guys are clamoring for Juan Pierre. I'd take him, but I wouldn't offer him a long term pact. One or two years is plenty. I also wouldn't mind seeing Mike Cameron come to the North Side. He plays excellent D, has some pop, and gets on base. He strikes out a bit much, but he would suffice. If they lose out on those two, I think Preston Wilson might be worth taking a flyer on. Good pop, good glove, and yes, unfortunately tons of strikeouts. He's not worth anything near the 12 million he earned last year, but if he could be had for one of those “one year, 5 million” types of deals, a case can certainly be made. The fact is, none of the guys available is a long-term solution. They'd all be just keeping the seat warm till Felix Pie is ready. The Cubs don't need to break the bank on Johnny Damon.
In the pen, B.J. Ryan is by far the best guy available. He's young and he throws fire. He's a proven closer. I'd love to see him either finishing out games or setting them up for Ryan Dempster. He's going to command a lot of money this offseason, though, so I'm skeptical at the Cubs chances. Tom Gordon is an older chap that's available and will probably be successful, but the Cubs rarely have luck with former Cubs, so I'd probably avoid him. Ditto for Kyle Farnsworth, obviously. Trevor Hoffman and Bob Wickman are available and have been consistently productive over the last few years. But they're both approaching forty and anyone that remembers Mike Remlinger (or Doug Jones or Goose Gossage or Rick Aguilera) knows how that's bound to turn out. Another name to avoid: Todd Jones. He's been pretty awful for the last three years before an out-of-nowhere excellent 2005 campaign. Smells like Jeff Fassero to me. I guess I don't really have any names to offer, but that really goes with the territory in the bullpen. Most successful bullpen guys come out of nowhere, burn out fast, and you never hear from them again. It's up to Hendry and his scouts to find these one-year wonder types and mold them into an effective pen. I will say this, I wasn't overly disappointed in the 2005 model. I wouldn't be surprised if guys like Novoa, Weurtz, and Ohman took a step forward and turned our bullpen from an area of weakness to an area of strength. I wouldn't bet the farm, but I wouldn't be surprised either.
So that sums up the Cubs greatest needs in this offseason. There are other areas that can be upgraded, like starting pitcher, second base, and a better defensive starting catcher; but these other areas must be addressed first. Jim Hendry is on the hot seat. He's going to make some moves, that much is known. How these moves turn out will determine whether the Cubs are hoisting a trophy next October or searching for a new General Manager.