The Chicago Bears take on the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs this Sunday at 3:30 Central, and this happy blogger will be at Soldier Field to partake in the activities. I don't know about you, but I am fired up for this game! It's not every year that the Bears make the playoffs, you know. So with that, on with the preview.
Since this game is a rematch, we have the luxury of knowing in advance how the teams match up. In that regards, this game bodes well for the Bears. In looking back at some of my old posts, it's kind of interesting to compare what I was saying before the last Panthers game to what I was saying afterwards. The Carolina game, in fact, was the only time all season that I predicted a loss for our beloved. After that boneheaded pick, I decided to stick with the boys in navy and orange for the rest of the way. (What can I say? Predicting a W is more fun.) That game really was a turning point, though. The rest of the league discovered that the Bears are, indeed, for real. They dominated on both sides of the ball, and the game really wasn't as close as the final score. So has anything changed since November? Lets take a look.
Chicago Offense vs. Carolina Defense
The biggest difference between this game and the last is Rex Grossman will be taking over for Kyle Orton at Quarterback. You're probably thinking this is a massive upgrade for the Bears, and well, you're probably right. But don't forget that the Carolina game was perhaps Orton's finest as a pro. Orton's final numbers weren't spectacular that day, but Muhsin Muhammad and Desmond Clark combined to drop five balls, including a sure TD. Had those five completions been included in his stats, Orton's QB rating would have surpassed 100 (not to mention drives would have been extended and more points would have been put on the board.) So with that in mind, I'd be ecstatic if Grossman can simply duplicate Orton's Carolina performance.
The offensive line did a tremendous job that day in November -- all season really -- and Carolina's stud Defensive End Julius Peppers and the rest of his crew were held in check. Don't get me wrong, Carolina's defense is tough. They ranked third in the league, and anyone that saw them last week should know that they aren't to be taken lightly. That said, I think Eli Manning lost last week's game more than Carolina won it. He was that bad, and I like to think that Grossman won't be that careless with the ball. Look for the offense to put at least two TDs and a few FGs on the board.
Chicago Defense vs. Carolina Offense
Some of my happiest moments as a Bears fan were watching Jake Delhomme repeatedly getting pulverized by Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown on that dreary November day. After Delhomme was peeled off the Soldier Field turf, I came to the conclusion that Jake wasn't that special. He's got an outstanding receiver in Steve Smith, but he'll fall apart if you hit him hard enough. I think the Bears got in his head that day. They should send him a subtle reminder on the first series and blitz the crap out of him. Hit him hard with Mike Brown, and hope the man-to-man can keep Smith in check. Then back off into that cover-2 and let the line do the rest. It worked the last time.
A lot of people are picking the Panthers to win this game because of the emergence of DeShaun Foster in the last few weeks. Sure, he ran for 151 yards against the Giants, but they were on their fifth string linebackers. A few weeks ago, these guys were asking “paper or plastic?” and now they're starting linebackers for the G-men? Foster's strength is getting outside and breaking some tackles. That plays right into Chicago's hands, as they've got a pair of Pro Bowlers built to run these speedy guys down. Doug Buffone said it best when he said he'd shove a lead pipe up his nose if Foster ran for more than 60 yards this Sunday. I won't go quite that far, but I'd double down on the Briggs and Urlacher combo.
Coaching and Intangibles
John Fox is a good coach, but Lovie Smith is coach of the year. I love the way Lovie handles this team. He uses that southern Texas drawl to keep everybody calm yet everyone plays their balls off for him. He's good with in-game decisions and strategy, too. I can count on one hand how many times I disagreed with a play-call or really questioned his decision making. Under the previous regime, I'd find five problems per quarter.
The weather should be unseasonably warm, and while I'll probably find that enjoyable as a spectator, it eliminates the chance for “Bear Weather” and our supposed home field advantage. I saw who cares. Watching our guys chase around Jerome Bettis in the snow was about all the Bear Weather I needed to see this season. This team is built for speed and the conditions should be optimal for them. 'Nuff said.
Finally, a prediction. The Bears were embarassed by their early exit from the 2001 playoffs, and are looking for redemption. The key to this game is getting out to an early lead. Unlike the Brokeback Mountain boys, the Bears don't play well from behind. If they go down by 10 or more early, this game will be over fast. But if they can get out to an early lead, they can sit on the ball and play their game. Look for another early Vasher pick, and look for the Bears to win, 20-17.
PS. In the other games this weekend, I expect the Seahawks, Patriots and Colts to advance.