Mark My Words
Cubs fans are abuzz about Mark Prior and his shoulder. Will Carroll dropped this bombshell in his report for the excellent Baseball Prospectus the other day:
"You can't have spring training anymore without pitcher problems or at least rumors of said problems. Those usually start with the Cubs, and this year is no different. Reliable sources -- the same ones that tipped us early to Mark Prior's Achilles problem -- now tell us that Prior is having shoulder problems. The Cubs deny this and point to Prior's work on the mound. Prior was doing towel drills on Saturday, but this is the same type of work he was doing last year when there was a problem. According to our best sources in Mesa, Prior looks 'weak and sick.' Until he throws, we just won't know, though I'd like to believe Larry Rothschild."
It's interesting how the local papers are reporting this. Check out this tasty nugget from Paul Sullivan at the Tribune:
"And because anyone with access to a Web site can pretend to be a journalist, they often do. Prior said he feels good and expects to be throwing off a mound within the next few days."
As a true hack with access to a web site, I'm not offended by this. But Will Carroll shouldn't be lumped in with the rest of us idiots. I've been reading Carroll's work for several years now, and I've come to trust him as a reliable source. His specialty is in player conditioning and injuries. He's written for slate, espn.com, mlb.com, has two books published, and has contributed to several others. He's not some hack. He's been burned a few times with some less-than-100%-accurate insider reports, but for the most part his stories are dead-on, balls accurate.
The Sun-Times gives a different view of the whole situation. They acknowledge the spottiness of some of Carroll's previous reports, but they also point out the Cubs less than stellar reputation for being truthful about injuries.
"Keep in mind, the Cubs are the ones who tried to conceal Prior's elbow pain in spring training 2004 by saying his slow progress was entirely because of an Achilles tendon problem."
Gee, I wonder which of these two media companies owns the Cubs?
The less optimistic Cubs bloggers out there would like to remind you that single-game tickets go on sale this Friday, and that TribCo is hiding information that might hurt sales. Does one man make a difference on sales? Well, yes. What are the chances of the Cubs making the playoffs without a healthy Mark Prior? Pretty slim. So the hopes of an entire season may well rest on his shoulder.
So what's the real story? Frankly, I don't know. Nobody does, really, other than Mr. Prior himself. What I do know is he hasn't been throwing a baseball, and that he's behind schedule. The Cubs say he'll be ready by opening day, but until I see him actually pitching every five days, I'll just have to take their word for it. And hope that the tickets I buy this Friday aren't to watch another sub-.500 team.