The NFC Championship Game: Saints vs. Bears, Uncharted Territory
Anyone that thinks they know what's going to happen this Sunday is crazy. The Saints are making their first appearance in the NFC Title game in franchise history. The Chicago Bears, of course, have appeared in two such games but the last of which occurred when Devin Hester was just six years old. So you can throw history out the window. Or can you?
The Saints rival the Arizona Cardinals as the worst franchise in NFL history (at least performance-wise). Last week was just their second playoff win in team history. I think this is one critical fact that the mainstream media is overlooking as they scribble "New Orleans" down when giving predictions for this week's game. Before they saved the city, they were known for Archie Manning, bags on their heads, and a handful of wild card appearances (including a loss to the Bears in 1991). They're the "Ain'ts." They've never been within 1000 miles of the Super Bowl, except of course when it took place in their home, the Superdome.
On top of that, they've got a rookie coach making a rookie mistake. It's going to be awfully cold this Sunday in Chicago. Yet when given the rare opportunity to practice in lousy weather this week in New Orleans, he took a pass and practiced indoors. Pretty gutsy. His logic seems sound, or at least it will till he steps off the plane this Saturday.
The Bears, as you know, have been "reeling." They reeled all the way to a 14-3 record this season. So I totally understand why every prognosticator at ESPN has picked the 11-6 Saints to beat the Bears this week. On the road, in the cold. Only Clayton is giving the Bears a shot.
Let's take a step back a second. Let's look at this from a pure football perspective. The Saints strength has been their top-ranked offense this season, and they've got a deadly one-two combo in McAllister-Bush, some speedy receivers and of course, Drew Brees, probably the best QB in the league this year. So let me tell you why they're not going to score two touchdowns this week.
1. Reggie Bush will be ineffective against the Bears. Yes, he's incredibly talented and super fast. But the high majority of his plays come off sweeps and screens, and that plays right into the Bears hands. Urlacher and Briggs were born to run down immensely talented runners on the outside. It's their bread and butter. Ask Michael Vick.
2. Did I mention the weather? The forecast isn't unBEARable, but it'll seem like eskimo-land to the Saints from the South. Other than Colston, their receivers have all had cases of the butterfingers. And that was in a dome in optimal conditions. Throw a rock-hard, wind-affected football at them in the snow? Then have three good-to-great cornerbacks covering them? You do the math.
3. They can't stop the run. Their best method to stop the run is to light up the scoreboard and force opponents to pass to keep up. If they ain't scoring, they ain't stopping nobody. They gave up over 5 yards a carry this year, and Ron Turner knows it. Look for both Benson AND Jones to exceed 80 yards on the ground.
4. Grossman is the man. There, I said it. My confidence in Rex has been completely restored after re-watching the Seahawks game last night. He's not some dumb deer in the headlights. He's not some giddy little schoolgirl either. He's a GunslingerTM. And he just learned how to keep it in his holster. Keep the chains moving, keep Desmond Clark in your sights, and throw deep when Fred Thomas is on Berrian. Stay angry. Then practice your TD celebrations.
5. Lovie Smith isn't stupid. He's not going to stick by a faulty gameplan like he did last year against Steve Smith. He'll adjust if the Saints start making plays.
Really, how the Bears play Deuce McAllister is the key to this game. He can pound the middle and move the sticks. Stop him on first and second down, keep them 3rd and long all day. Forcing a turnover or two would help as well. The Saints coughed it up this year more than they took it. Granted, Grossman alone had more turnovers than the entire Saints team, but still. The Saints aren't going to be able to pass-rush and/or run-block nearly as well as Julian Peterson and Seattle did last week, and Grossman still carved them up. Look for a surprisingly easy Bears win, 24-13. Then prepare for the Colts in Super Bowl XLI.
BEAR DOWN, CHICAGO BEARS!!!!!