Felix Pie: Should he stay or should he go?
Felix Pie is tearing it up in Spring Training for the Cubs. Pronounced Pee-Ay, the Cubs number one prospect, is a 22-year old, five-tool center fielder from the Dominican. This spring, he's hitting .354 while supporting a .404 OBP and playing excellent defense. It would seem like a no brainer that the Center Fielder of the Future should be the Center Fielder of Today. Slide Alfonso Soriano to Right and Jacque Jones out of town. Seems too simple. Or is it?
Corey Patterson alert! Corey Patterson alert!
You hate to hang that saddle on the kid, but the similarities are astounding. The five tool player with a sweet swing, fast wheels, but questionable plate discipline is the most recent example of a prospect that was rushed to the show before he was ready. Is Pie ready? Consider:
- He's the best defensive center fielder on the 40-man roster right now. The combo of him in Center with Soriano in Right is probably worth 3-5 wins this season defensively alone.
- He has had far more success in the minor leagues than Corey Patterson ever had. Corey tore it up in A-ball, was mediocre in AA, and struggled in AAA. Yet he still climbed the ladder at light speed to sit on Don Baylor's bench at age 20. I don't want to say he was ruined, but damn it, he was ruined. Let him have some success in the minors. Giving such a raw player one at-bat per week is criminal. Pie has not been nearly as rushed. Taking on one league per year, he's had at least moderate success at every level. Finally up to AAA last season after recovering from an injury, he proceeded to have a strong second half.
However, as a wise human spider once said, "with great power comes great responsibility." There's this:
- As much as I rag on Jones, his projections at the plate for 2007 dwarf those of Pie. He's good for another 28-30 HRs and 80 RBIs against righties alone. (Literally alone.)
- Pie's lofty spring average is almost entirely comprised of singles. One double, one triple, 15 singles. That's it. Singles hitters tend to be less lucky when the season starts. It's the guys that can consistently drive doubles into the gaps (if not over the fence) that end up being the best hitters in the game. He's forecasted at having that sort of power in the bigs eventually, but he's not there yet.
- There's still that plate discipline issue. His walk rate isn't as bad as Patterson's, but it's still not much to look at. Most projections have Pie around .270/.313/.350 this year. That's barely better than Neifi. (And this is our number one prospect?!) Well, I think he'll be better than Neifi, but he won't come within sniffing distance of Jones in '07 so they'll probably be better served sticking with Jacque.
So that's that. Send Pie back to AAA, and if he hits like a banshee for two months, bring him up then. Just don't bring him up to sit him. Once he's up, he starts. Every day. Until then, stick with Jones.