Final Thoughts on Chicago Sports

2007 Bears Draft Review - Going for the Home Run

With most of the roster already set for 2007, Jerry Angelo didn't play it safe and decided to go for the home runs with the Bears choices in the NFL Draft.  Lets see how he did.

1.  Greg Olsen, TE, The U.  A great pick.  So great, in fact, that I'm a little nervous.  Usually, I disagree with Jerry Angelo.    These last few years, he's usually been right and I've usually been wrong.  But this time, I got what I wanted.  In my preview the other day, Olsen was the only guy I singled out as a potential pick for the Bears (though I didn't actually call him by name.)  I didn't want to harp on it, but yes, he was the guy I wanted.  Problem is, practically every Bears fan wanted him.  And who wouldn't?

He's a stud.  He's got receiver speed and receiver hands with Tight End bulk.  He's a freak.  In the NFC Central, everyone's playing the Cover-2.  Lovie knows what beats him, and a good Tight End can exploit the holes in the scheme.  No linebacker is going to keep up with this guy.  He may well put up Antonio Gates numbers for this team.  Well, if not Gates then maybe Todd Heap.  If he's even half of what Todd Heap is, he'll be the best Bears Tight End since Ditka.  Not to set a lofty goal for him or anything.  Great pick.

2.  Trade!  The Bears traded the number 37 pick they got from the Jets to the Chargers for four picks.  Great move.  With the way Angelo finds sleepers in the mid rounds of the draft, this had to be a no brainer.  They might end up now with two or three productive players for Jones, in which case this would be a steal. 

2.  Dan Bazuin, DE, Central Michigan.  And here's where everything goes crazy.  I don't have a problem with Bazuin per se, but like the Devin Hester pick last year, this is an awfully risky move.  An undersized, speedy Defensive End from the MAC?  Eek.  He might pan out, because as I said the other day, Jerry knows defense.  But this pick is far from safe.  Did I mention I'm a MAC guy?  Yeah, I went to NIU, and that's the conference I watch most.  (Well, that and the Big Ten).  Which leads me to the Bears next pick.

3.  Garret Wolfe, RB, Northern Illinois.  Wow.  I've seen probably three quarters of Wolfe's games over the past three seasons, and I know this pick as well as I've ever known a Bears draft pick.  No doubt, Wolfe was awesome in college.  Super fast, super agile, and tougher than you'd think for a little man.  He's just so damn little, though.  5'7, Buck-Eighty-Six.  And he really took a pounding at NIU, averaging more than 25 carries a game.  As the only real threat on the NIU offense, defenses would key on him and he'd get stuffed for a loss on half his carries.  But when he got past the line, he was gone.  Simply amazing at times, and he really reminded me of a skinnier version of Barry Sanders.  Or Maurice Jones-Drew if you prefer not comparing him to a Hall of Famer. 

Wolfe was a real wild card in this draft.  Based on his size alone, I figured he'd be a sixth or seventh rounder.  Maybe a fifth rounder, maybe even undrafted.  Again, he's a real little dude.  I figure whoever got him would be pleasantly surprised in this change-of-pace back.  This pick shocks me.  On every level.  Angelo said he had a hell of a workout a few weeks ago.  He must have. 

3.  Michael Okwo, LB, Stanford.  Another shorty in the fold.  Scouts, Inc. projects him as a special teams ace, overachiever type.  Lets not ship off Briggs just yet.

4.  Josh Beekman, OG, Boston College.  By all accounts, this guy sounds like a steal in the 4th round.  He's beefy, and I like my lineman how I like my burgers.  Beefy.

5.  Kevin Payne, S, Louisiana Monroe.  Boy, the Bears sure like filling out their secondary with guys from Louisiana.  This is the second guy they've gotten from Louisiana Monroe, after Chris Harris, a college I'd never heard of before 2005.  In addition, Peanut Tillman and Bobby Gray came from The Lou.  As for Payne, he sounds like a great athlete, but a project.

5.  Corey Graham, CB, New Hampshire.  Another "upside" guy.  Fast. Talented. Raw. 

7.  Trumaine McBride, CB, Mississippi.  Another corner?  Are the Bears planning on letting Nathan Vasher walk?  They certainly are stocking up in the secondary.

7.  Aaron Brant, OT, Iowa State.  I don't know why, but the fact that they got a big bald white guy from Iowa puts a smile on my face.  Don't they all come from Iowa?

The Bears certainly didn't play it safe this year.  Only Olsen looks like a sure thing; well, as much of a sure thing as there is in the draft.  The rest of the guys are the definition of hit or miss.  They'll either flame out and be worthless or they'll end up being major contributors.  I'm guessing at least half these guys will be nobodies by 2009.  But if any team can afford that luxury of aiming high, I guess its the Bears. 

And with that, now it's time to hurry up and wait.  Make all these picks, get all excited, and...wait four months.  Bear down.

2007 Bears Draft Preview

Coming off an appearance in the Super Bowl, the Bears don't have a lot of holes.  They don't have any holes, really.  They have some positions where there's not a lot of depth, but there are no holes.  Here's where they're light:

1.  Defensive Line - Tommie Harris is coming off an injury, Tank Johnson has a suspension in his future, and both Ian Scott and Alfonso Boone are goners.  They did sign Anthony Adams to replace the departed Scott, and hopefully Dusty Dvoracek can come back from injury and do a decent Alfonso Boone impression.  (The bar isn't very high.)  But still, I'd like to see the Bears pick up someone beefy on day one. 

2.  Offensive Line - The Bears are returning all five starters from a year ago, but some of those guys are starting to get up there.  Brown, Miller, and Tait are 35, 34, and 32, respectively.  The Bears web site lists Kreutz at 29, and that shocks me.  I would have bet my left eye that the nine-year veteran was at least 32.  Go figure.  He's just one year older than Garza, Metcalf and St. Clair; the other heavy contributers on the roster.  So even with Kid Kreutz anchoring the line, nobody good could really be classified as "young."  (Sorry, Olin.)  They desperately need help on the O-Line in the first two rounds.

3.  Linebacker - Screw Lance Briggs.  Call his bluff, let him sit out the first ten games of the year.  It doesn't help the Bears in the long run, but I'm willing to sacrifice the future a little to send a message that the Bears aren't pushovers.  If the Bears bow to Briggs demands, what's to stop the next guy from pulling the same crap?  The precident will have been set.  So stay strong, Jerry.  I bet he suits up by week 3.  Seven million is a lot to give up. 

On a related note, Briggs is no doubt a goner after 2007.  Better get someone good.

4.  Running Back - The Bears don't need to spend a high pick on a runner, but I suspect a replacement for Thomas Jones will arrive sometime Sunday.

5.  Tight End - Was Desmond Clark for real this year?  He and Gilmore were a pretty solid combo, but if that guy from Miami is still around in the early 20s the Bears should seriously consider trading up. 

6.  Wide Receiver - Bernard Berrian should be a fixture for the next several years, but nobody else on the roster gives me the warm fuzzies about 2008 and beyond.  Moose will probably be cut after this season, and Mark Bradley has yet to stay on the field enough for the team to count on him. 

And that's really about it.  Notice I didn't give names on who the Bears should draft.  Just the positions that need attention.  I'm not going to claim to be a college football expert, and all I'd be doing is regurgitating the top players from the lists that Kiper and Scouts, Inc. have prepared for me.  And they're usually wrong 80% of the time anyways, so screw it.  All I'll say is, Jerry, pick the best players available on the board when your number comes up.  I've gotten to the point where I trust your judgement.  Especially on Defense.  Offense, you're a little shaky, but you draft Defense like a mofo.  So you go on with your bad self.  And don't go cheap.  That's all I ask.

Bear Down. 

Cards in Town, Cubs Fall Short

Lou Piniella should head on down to Office Max and stock up on printer paper.  He should buy so much that they could replace all the sod at Wrigley Field with it.  After all, on paper, the Cubs are pretty good. 

Lets see, after they won 66 games in 2006, they added the biggest bat free agency could buy, and their resident MVP candidate was coming back from injury.  Pick up an aging slugger with some pop on the cheap, mix them up and the offense is sure to score more runs than last season. 

Then, pick up a few steady starters and add reinforcements to the bullpen.  Even the mediocre new guys will be a huge upgrade over the greenies last season.  Really, anything less than 82 wins this season should be considered a massive disappointment.  And you know what?  I know this.  I know that this team isn't a great team by any stretch, I just happen to think they're good enough to contend in a weak National League.

Well there's one thing the Cubs forgot to upgrade this offseason.  Shortstop.  What I've seen these last two weeks is an absolute abomination.  Cesar Izturis and Ronny Cedeno, I'm talking to you.  For starters, lets look at your batting average.  Thus far, you've combined for a sparkling .140 Batting Average, with one Home Run and four RBIs.  And if that's not bad enough, your defense has been "spotty".  If it's not the THREE ERRORS in ONE GAME, it's the hesitation on an easy grounder two nights ago that cost the team game one of the Atlanta series, Cesar.  And then there's today.

After a one-out single by Mark DeRosa in the 9th inning of a one-run game, Lou uses Cedeno to pinch run.  Curious move, I was thinking at the time.  DeRosa's not especially slow, and Cedeno never struck me as a "smart" baserunner.  He was only 8 for 16 in SB attempts last year, and I'm pretty sure he got picked off at least five times.  But whatever, he's in for DeRosa.  Some how, some way, Jacque Jones draws a walk on a 3-2 pitch where the runner was going.  Incredibly, Cedeno over runs the bag and gets thrown out.  On a walk.  I can't ever remember seeing that in all my years watching baseball.  Ridiculous.

And don't even get me started on the botched "triple play."  A lucky call puts the two Cub runners back on with only one out and they follow it up with back-to-back strikeouts.  Way to shift the momentum guys.

I wonder if this guy is still available?

Bulls - Heat, Round 2

The Bulls had a disappointing end to a pretty good season last night by falling to the Nets and down to the fifth seed of the playoffs.  Now the road to the finals starts with Miami, and then on to cities like Detroit and Cleveland; a far tougher scenario than they would have had if they simply won the game last night.  No use crying over spilled milk, though, so let's look ahead. 

I haven't written much about the Bulls this season, but I've been watchin.  Oh yes, I've been watchin.  What I've seen is a much more consistent team than the team that took the floor last April.  Luol Deng is a rock.  Night in, night out, 19 and 7.  He's by far the most consistent of the "good" players on the Bulls.  And the fact that he just turned 22 two days ago gets me pretty excited.  In fact, the playoffs themselves get me excited.  There's nothing better to spice up May and June than a good tight playoff series.  And therein lies the problem.  The Bulls haven't seen May or June since Jordan retired nine years ago. 

But I have a feeling this year might be different.  Miami just isn't the same team that beat the Bulls in last year's first round and ended up hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy in June.  Yes, their mediocre record can largely be explained away by Wade and Shaq's respective injuries, but they didn't exactly light the world on fire when they both were in the lineup either.  Shaq's old, and Wade is rusty.  If Hinrich can contain Wade, and Wallace can prevent Shaq from having a flashback, I really think the Bulls will win this first series.  In fact, I'm going to put it out there right now that Ben Wallace is the most important player on the court in this series.  He wasn't here last year, and Tyson Chandler had an absolutely miserable opening round.  Shaq played like it was 1999, and it was all over.  So if Big Ben can lock down Shaq, Captain Kirk can shadow Wade, Gordon fires up a 30 spot two or three times, and Deng remains his consistently good self; I don't see how they not win in 6.  Throw in a healthy, scrappy Nocioni and it smells like a lock to me.  Am I just talkin crazy or what?

Cubs finally find some offense at Home

As I write this, the Cubs are taking it to the Padres by a score of 12-1 in the 7th.  With the way the season is going, they'll be lucky to score two tomorrow.  But I likey what I see tonight.  Well, except for the part where Alfonso Soriano came off the field clutching his hamstring.  I could have done without that.  But other than that, it's been a joy.

• Before I get to the hitting, how about Jason Marquis?  I told you he'd be great!  Well, maybe I didn't.  But only the biggest curmudgeons among us can complain about Marquis' effort so far.  Well, call me a curmudgeon because I'm not about to throw a parade for Marquis just yet.  Consider:
• Tonight he faced a team that didn't arrive in Chicago until 6am this morning after playing the Dodgers last night.  And it showed.
• Historically, he's been pretty good in April.  Even during his crap year last season, he still managed three wins in the first month. 
• Interesting new lineup tonight.  Murton in Right, Jones in Left, Theriot at Second and DeRosa filling in for Aramis at third.  I wonder what Lou is thinking?
• I don't have to wonder about the first part, because Lou said he prefers Murton's arm in Right over Jones.  I have no idea what he's talking about.  Jones is like Roberto Clemente out there.  Or not.  But I'm wondering if this is permanent.  Of course, Jones had to slide over to Center in the fifth when Soriano came out, so maybe this "new lineup" will be a one-night oddity and we'll see another new lineup tomorrow.
• I am wondering, however, if Theriot is going to find himself starting at second more in place of DeRosa.  DeRosa hit a bomb tonight, but otherwise he's been cool of late while Theriot's been the only hot bat in the lineup.  I guess we'll know when Aramis gets back.
• Bombs away!  Barrett, DeRosa and Floyd all jacked one tonight; the latter being an absolute bomb.  I'd love to see Floyd do well and stay in the lineup this year, even at the expense of Murton.  Murton's good, but Floyd two years ago was awesome.  He repeats 2005, and I'm going to lose no sleep over seeing Orange Guy on the bench.  Of course, if Orange Guy continues to start over Jones in Right, I won't exactly be filling out a complaint card. 

And that's it.  Tonight is just what the doctor ordered, let's keep it up tomorrow.

The new phone books are here! The new phone books are here! Actually, it's the 2007 NFL Schedule.

The NFL released the 2007 schedule today, and everybody's going nuts over it.  I'm not really sure why, though.  With the eight division set up, 14 out of the 16 opponents are known literally years in advance.  Only the last two opponents are determined by a team's record, and we knew them back in December.  Still, it's fun to look at the Bears' schedule and start identifying the wins and losses.  First off, here's the schedule.

WK DATE      OPPONENT         TIME (ET)
1 Sun, Sep 9 at San Diego     4:15 PM
2 Sun, Sep 16 Kansas City     4:15 PM
3 Sun, Sep 23 Dallas          8:15 PM
4 Sun, Sep 30 at Detroit      1:00 PM
5 Sun, Oct 7 at Green Bay     8:15 PM
6 Sun, Oct 14 Minnesota       1:00 PM
7 Sun, Oct 21 at Philadelphia 4:15 PM
8 Sun, Oct 28 Detroit         1:00 PM
9 BYE WEEK
10 Sun, Nov 11 at Oakland     4:15 PM
11 Sun, Nov 18 at Seattle     8:15 PM
12 Sun, Nov 25 Denver         1:00 PM
13 Sun, Dec 2 NY Giants       4:15 PM
14 Thu, Dec 6 at Washington   8:15 PM
15 Mon, Dec 17 at Minnesota   8:30 PM
16 Sun, Dec 23 Green Bay      1:00 PM
17 Sun, Dec 30 New Orleans    1:00 PM

Much tougher than last year, that's for sure.  But what do you expect when you have to play the NFC East and AFC West in the same season?  Five night games, too.  Wow. 

The season starts off with three straight tough games.  Luckily, the latter two are at Soldier Field so I would think they should win at least two of those three.  Following that, five of the next six opponents should be a cakewalk (only the road game in Philly should pose any threat).  Yes, there's some tough division games in there, but anything less than 4-2 over that stretch would be an upset.  Then, starting the week before Thanksgiving, they've got the toughest sequence of the year:  @Seattle, Denver, NYG, @Wash, @Minn.  Then the last two are nothing to sneeze at either in GB & the Saints.  The potential good news is that if the Bears can zip through those teams, they should be in great shape for another extended postseason run.  The potential bad news is they can start out 8-1 or 7-2 and then slump down the stretch to back into the playoffs. 

I'll go with a happy medium.  Bears go 12-4 and clinch the division in week 15. 

Bear down.

Brrrr!!! You're not in Tampa anymore, Lou

So before the game, Lou says, "We're not built to win in this weather."  After the game, he changes his tune.  Ah, hell, let me just quote the AP game recap:

"I was telling our general manager today, the way we're put together as a team, if we play in 40-degree [weather] all year, I don't think we're going to do very well because we don't have that type of team," Piniella said. "We have more power in our lineup. We need to bang it a little more, and once the weather warms up, we will."

After the game, Piniella wanted to make sure his comments weren't misinterpreted. He said the Cubs are more a fly-ball team than a small-ball group but still should be able to win cold-weather games.

[...]

"We got to play in cold weather the same way the other team does, and we got to win our share of ballgames in cold weather, the same way the other team does," Piniella said.

That just reeks of "Give me my horses," doesn't it? 

Eight games.  That's how long it took for Lou to start making excuses.  Look, I'm still on the Lou bandwagon.  Despite the 3-5 record, I've seen some good things.  But this crybaby shit has got to stop.  Did Piniella know what the weather in Chicago would be like in April when he took the job?  I got news for you, Lou, it's like this in October, too.  And I wouldn't be counting on an influx of speed and smallball to be added to this lineup before then.  So quit your whining and start winning some ball games. 

And it wouldn't hurt to drop Jacque Jones from the two-spot either.  When I think of the perfect number two hitter, I start giggling because I just said "number two."  But seriously, Jacque Jones doesn't make enough contact to bat second.  With a legitimate stolen base threat on first (assuming Soriano wakes up), you need someone who can make contact batting second.  Michael Barrett might be that guy.  Matt Murton might be that guy.  Mark DeRosa might be that guy.  But Jacque Jones?  Not that guy.

Anyhoo, today's game was full of ups and downs.  The biggest downs were Marquis' awful first inning and Izturis' three errors.  THREE.  They ought start scouting the local circus because I'm sure the nearest clown could play shortstop and not look nearly as bad as Izturis did today. 

What I did like was the lack of quit.  Ninth inning rolls around, and the team rallies.  Yes, two runs in the ninth when you're down four still counts as a loss in the standings.  But sooner or later the fourth and fifth runs are going to cross the plate, and it's the lack of "quit" that we saw oh so much last year that I'm happy to announce is long gone.  Dragged away by wild horses, presumably.

2007 Cubs: Observations from the First Road Trip

The Cubs come home from their first road trip of the year with a 3-3 record.  Not bad, really.  The goal is to win two-thirds of your home games and finish .500 on the road.  Do that, and you're in excellent position to make the postseason.  Not to mention that these first six games were tough intra-divisional games.  So I'll take it.  Here's what I saw, both good and bad:

The Good:

• All in all, good starting pitching.  After Z's sub-par opening day, the starters ran off four straight quality starts before Wade Miller shat himself today.  And with the Milwaukee series already won, I wasn't expecting a whole lot out of Miller against Cub Killer Capuano.  But Lilly, Marquis, Hill, and Zambrano were all good if not great.  The Cubs will win a lot of games this year if they keep it up.  Obviously.
• A solid opening week for Lou Piniella.  I can't really argue with his pitching moves, and the starting lineups have been pretty good (other than Izturis batting in the two hole on Friday.)  I especially liked seeing Jones sit against lefty Capuano with Theriot taking his spot in the field.  Theriot didn't do much in the game and the team lost, but I like the fact that he's actually thinking when filling out the lineup card. 
• One other note about Lou, I absolutely LOVED him bitching out the nibbling Ryan Dempster on Wednesday.  Throw strikes.  It's 35 freakin' degrees out, they aren't hittin Home Runs tonight.  So he did. 
• Mark DeRosa.  Four strikeout game today aside, I like what I've seen so far.  We all know one hot week doesn't mean anything; I remember Cedeno started out last season hot before sinking to a sub .220 line for the rest of the season.  But I like DeRosa's defense and who doesn't like his bat in those first five games.  He's been hitting with authority.  (Again, except for today.)
• Cesar Izturis hasn't been bad either.  Him, DeRosa and Marquis have been doing their best to give me and Cub Nation a Coke and a Smile.

The Bad:

• Zambrano's mouth.  He's gotta get one of those Cokes, man.  You don't say that stuff about any other team, let alone a team in your division. 
• Yes, the pitching was overall pretty great, but how much of it can be attributed to the weather?  I know Lilly would have given up at least two bombs at the GAB had it been a hot summer day.  Let's just say he was pitching to the conditions and be happy with the win.
• The first two losses could have been completely avoided with a little more clutch hitting.  There was also some base-running gaffes.  No one individual is to blame, but it was really starting to look like 2006 all over again for a second.  And what's with all the failed attempted steals?  I was under the impression that only Soriano had a green light every time.  Is Lou calling for all the swiping?  Time will tell.
• Soriano's had a few hits, but I haven't seen no $126 million dollar's worth yet.  Pretty solid on D, though, so no complaints there.
• Barrett's been pretty awful, too.  And Scott Eyre looks worse than Mike Remlinger did the week he got cut.  It's way too early, though, to really give it much thought.

And that's that.  Home opener's tomorrow, and I'll be there in spirit via the magic of the Internet.  Man, what did people do before TCP/IP?  Work?  Pshaw....

Go Cubs!

Busy Opening Day: Cubs Lose, Cubs Sold

There's probably been a few Cubs-related stories on Opening Day through the years that have been bigger than today's news, but I certainly can't remember any.  The Tribune Company has been sold to real estate investor Sam Zell, and it was announced that the new owner will sell the Cubs after the 2007 season.  Hey! Hey!  Holy Mackeral!  The Cubs are on their way!

I'm of two thoughts on this:

1. It'll be nice to get a face for the organization.  A company doesn't have a face.  It has a CEO, but most Cubs fans don't even know what Dennis FitzSimons looks like.  (Understandably, he has other things to do than tend to Cubs matters.)  Further, it'd be nice if the person in charge was a baseball fan.  A company is not a fan, a company is out for the bottom line.  I want someone who puts the bottom line secondary to winning.  I realize this is a pipe dream, as anybody willing to spend $600 million on a baseball team is surely going to expect to make money from it.  But I want a smart baseball man to buy the team and realize that winning championships opens the floodgates for more money.  And performing in the red for two or three seasons might eventually bring a title to the city and a windfall of cash from around the globe. 
2. On the other hand, the Tribune has spent a pretty fair amount of money on the club these last few seasons.  The team's payroll is in the top five in all of baseball, and four of the last five champions have had payrolls smaller than the Cubs.  With new ownership comes new philosophies.  What if a billionaire/cheapskate like Carl Pohlad buys the team?  (He owns the Twins, so it's obviously not happening -- but someone like him.)  Someone who slashes payroll, never signs a marquee free agent, and builds strictly through the farm system.  It might be another dozen years before the Cubs are in contention again.  Of course, the Twins have won two titles in the last 20 years and have been in contention for the last six.  So nobody's exactly crying a river for the fans of the Twinkies.

Who knows how this whole thing will shake out.  All I know is I'm glad the Tribune is gone.  With the mentality that being in contention is all that matters for the bottom line, as well as such travesties as scalping their own tickets to rip off fans, hiding Cubs profits in other businesses, and the constant raising of ticket prices.  Good bye, and good riddance.  I'll take my chances with the next guy. 

As for today's game, there really isn't much to tell.  Zambrano didn't have his best stuff, and the Cubs couldn't hit with runners in scoring position.  That and an overall lack of patience at the plate and it looked like 2006 all over again.  Izturis and Murton especially looked clueless.  But it was a team effort, and another rote loss with at least another 60 sure to come over the next six months.  So I don't want to read too much into one game. 

The Cubs are off tomorrow, understandably.  I mean, they've worked for one whole afternoon and they want to kill any momentum that the fans might gain from watching back-to-back games.  Ridiculous.

Season Preview: Why the Cubs will be better in 2007

As I write this, Opening Day festivities are about 15 hours away.  I won't be able to watch this one, as I, like most of America, will be at work.  (I will be listening.)  I've said it before and I'll say it again, MLB should move Opening Day (for all games) to Sunday.  You know, so people could actually watch the game without skipping work?  I know, I know, it would make too much sense for an entity that places fan opinion last on their priority list.  But anyways, enough bitching.  Let's talk about the Cubs!

I'm going to take a look at the Cubs lineup and see if the changes they made over the offseason are enough to keep them out of last place. 

What positions should be significantly better?
Center Field- Alfonso Soriano, the prize of Free Agency, should be a tremendous upgrade over Juan Pierre.  A legit 40-40 guy in place of a slap hitter.  His defense certainly won't be so hot, but then again neither was Pierre's.  

First Base - Lee's healthy and has been tearing it up this spring.  I don't expect a return to 2005 near-MVP form, but I would think he can come within 10-15% of those numbers, and that'd be just fine.

Starting Rotation - I read an interesting article on The Hardball Times the other day which talks about the mediocrities they acquired (Lilly and Marquis) and how much better they should be than the rookies they replaced.  Here's the money quote:

In 2006, by misfortune rather than choice, the Cubs started rookie pitchers in almost half their games—78 of the 162. The most successful of those was Rich Hill, who in the last half of his 16 starts earned a spot in the Cubs’ rotation this spring. Remove him, and you’re left with 62 starts from seven other rookies, with these cumulative results:

IP    IP/Start    W-L    ERA
304.2 4.91        13-26  6.20

Lilly and Marquis between them started 65 games. Their combined numbers:

IP 	IP/Start    W-L    ERA
376	5.78        29-29  5.19

If they repeat those not-great numbers, that’s nearly one run fewer for the opponent in 40% of the Cubs’ games, nearly one fewer inning in those games for what was an overused bullpen—and 16 more wins. Add 16 to last season’s 66 Cubs wins, and that’s 82. The Cardinals won the NL Central last season by taking 83 games.

So yeah, mediocrity rocks!  And with the half-dozen experienced sophomores in reserve, the rotation should be much improved over last season. 

Manager - I can't stress this one enough.  Baker didn't know how to set a lineup, didn't know how to manage game situations, and didn't know how to keep everyone's heads in the game (see 2003 NLCS, game 6.)  Not to mention that everything with him was "cool, dude."  At the very least, Lou doesn't sit on his duff when the shit hits the fan.  He gets out there, fires up his team, kicks some dirt on the plate and throws bases.  I can't really comment on his in-game managerial skills, but thus far his lineup construction (in ST) has been solid.  He can't help but be a massive upgrade.

What positions should stay relatively the same? 
They might be a little better, might be a little worse; but I don't expect much difference from last year:

Third Base, Catcher - Aramis Ramirez and Michael Barrett are borderline all-stars and I expect them to remain as such.

Shortstop - You'd think we'd be getting an upgrade with Cesar Izturis over Ronnie Cedeno here.  After all, Cedeno was horrible last year.  News flash - Izturis sucks.  He might be a little better, I guess, but in six years he has exactly one good season.  The rest of his career has been Neifi-esque.  It's best to not hope for much more than that.  At least Lou bats him 8th.  Oddly enough, Cedeno had a great spring leading me to believe the Cubs might be better off with the youth of Ronnie than the prime suckage of Cesar.  Ronnie actually has a chance to improve.  But I'll try to suppress those thoughts until Izturis proves he sucks as much as I think.

Left Field - Murton/Floyd should be better than Murton/Pagan, provided Murton plays like he did in the second half and Floyd doesn't fall apart like the Blues Mobile.  If they aren't better, I can't really foresee much of a downgrade at all.

Bullpen - Dempster was pretty awful last year and he can't be much worse.  If he is worse (or even the same), he surely won't remain closer for long.  With Eyre, Howry, Cotts, and Weurtz backing him up, I'm guessing at least one of those guys could step in and close.  Not to mention with the upgrade in the rotation, the bullpen shouldn't be nearly as taxed.

What positions should be worse?
I don't think either of these guys are locks to fall apart, but they're the most obvious candidates. 

Right Field - Jacque Jones was a pleasant surprise with the stick last year, but his overall numbers seemed out of line with the previous three seasons.  If he reverts to his 2004-2005 levels, this will be a significant downgrade.  The good news is Felix Pie looked pretty good this spring, and Ryan Theriot or Mark DeRosa might be able to spell Jones when they face tough right-handers. 

Second Base - Yes, Mark DeRosa is coming off a career year and was one of the team's bigger free agent acquisitions this offseason, so you'd think this would be an automatic upgrade.  It's not.  If he repeats his career year, then yeah, the Cubs have got a more jovial version of Todd Walker on their hands.  In other words, no change.  But if DeRosa plays the way he did from 2000-2005, then the Cubs spent $13 million on Ramon Martinez.  There is some good news, however, in that Lou has seemed to take an appreciation of the scrappy Ryan Theriot this spring.  If Theriot's numbers in limited at-bats last year are any indication, he might very well put up DeRosa 2006 numbers, if given a chance.  So while DeRosa is a decent bet to suck, at least the Cubs have solid insurance in Theriot.

So that's that.
With the news that Carlos Zambrano is on the verge of signing a huge extension, all is good in Cubland.  The team is significantly better, and they should remain in contention in the weak National League till at least August.  It might not sound like much, but it's a start.  With a little luck, they can win the division with 85 wins.  And the Cardinals proved....you know where I'm going.

Would I rather be sitting here like I did in the spring of 2004, with five aces and all-stars at almost every position, picked by Sports Illustrated (and others) to win it all?  Of course.  I'm not stupid.  But after the last two years, I'll take what I can get.  And if I get a team that can hold my interest until football season starts...it's something.  And something is better than nothing. 

Your 2007 Cubs - Something is better than nothing!

PS.  Did you notice who didn't get mentioned in this preview?  40% of the aforementioned five aces, perhaps?  Yeah, it was intentional.