Season Preview: Why the Cubs will be better in 2007
As I write this, Opening Day festivities are about 15 hours away. I won't be able to watch this one, as I, like most of America, will be at work. (I will be listening.) I've said it before and I'll say it again, MLB should move Opening Day (for all games) to Sunday. You know, so people could actually watch the game without skipping work? I know, I know, it would make too much sense for an entity that places fan opinion last on their priority list. But anyways, enough bitching. Let's talk about the Cubs!
I'm going to take a look at the Cubs lineup and see if the changes they made over the offseason are enough to keep them out of last place.
What positions should be significantly better?
Center Field- Alfonso Soriano, the prize of Free Agency, should be a tremendous upgrade over Juan Pierre. A legit 40-40 guy in place of a slap hitter. His defense certainly won't be so hot, but then again neither was Pierre's.
First Base - Lee's healthy and has been tearing it up this spring. I don't expect a return to 2005 near-MVP form, but I would think he can come within 10-15% of those numbers, and that'd be just fine.
Starting Rotation - I read an interesting article on The Hardball Times the other day which talks about the mediocrities they acquired (Lilly and Marquis) and how much better they should be than the rookies they replaced. Here's the money quote:
In 2006, by misfortune rather than choice, the Cubs started rookie pitchers in almost half their games—78 of the 162. The most successful of those was Rich Hill, who in the last half of his 16 starts earned a spot in the Cubs’ rotation this spring. Remove him, and you’re left with 62 starts from seven other rookies, with these cumulative results:
IP IP/Start W-L ERA
304.2 4.91 13-26 6.20
Lilly and Marquis between them started 65 games. Their combined numbers:
IP IP/Start W-L ERA
376 5.78 29-29 5.19
If they repeat those not-great numbers, that’s nearly one run fewer for the opponent in 40% of the Cubs’ games, nearly one fewer inning in those games for what was an overused bullpen—and 16 more wins. Add 16 to last season’s 66 Cubs wins, and that’s 82. The Cardinals won the NL Central last season by taking 83 games.
So yeah, mediocrity rocks! And with the half-dozen experienced sophomores in reserve, the rotation should be much improved over last season.
Manager - I can't stress this one enough. Baker didn't know how to set a lineup, didn't know how to manage game situations, and didn't know how to keep everyone's heads in the game (see 2003 NLCS, game 6.) Not to mention that everything with him was "cool, dude." At the very least, Lou doesn't sit on his duff when the shit hits the fan. He gets out there, fires up his team, kicks some dirt on the plate and throws bases. I can't really comment on his in-game managerial skills, but thus far his lineup construction (in ST) has been solid. He can't help but be a massive upgrade.
What positions should stay relatively the same?
They might be a little better, might be a little worse; but I don't expect much difference from last year:
Third Base, Catcher - Aramis Ramirez and Michael Barrett are borderline all-stars and I expect them to remain as such.
Shortstop - You'd think we'd be getting an upgrade with Cesar Izturis over Ronnie Cedeno here. After all, Cedeno was horrible last year. News flash - Izturis sucks. He might be a little better, I guess, but in six years he has exactly one good season. The rest of his career has been Neifi-esque. It's best to not hope for much more than that. At least Lou bats him 8th. Oddly enough, Cedeno had a great spring leading me to believe the Cubs might be better off with the youth of Ronnie than the prime suckage of Cesar. Ronnie actually has a chance to improve. But I'll try to suppress those thoughts until Izturis proves he sucks as much as I think.
Left Field - Murton/Floyd should be better than Murton/Pagan, provided Murton plays like he did in the second half and Floyd doesn't fall apart like the Blues Mobile. If they aren't better, I can't really foresee much of a downgrade at all.
Bullpen - Dempster was pretty awful last year and he can't be much worse. If he is worse (or even the same), he surely won't remain closer for long. With Eyre, Howry, Cotts, and Weurtz backing him up, I'm guessing at least one of those guys could step in and close. Not to mention with the upgrade in the rotation, the bullpen shouldn't be nearly as taxed.
What positions should be worse?
I don't think either of these guys are locks to fall apart, but they're the most obvious candidates.
Right Field - Jacque Jones was a pleasant surprise with the stick last year, but his overall numbers seemed out of line with the previous three seasons. If he reverts to his 2004-2005 levels, this will be a significant downgrade. The good news is Felix Pie looked pretty good this spring, and Ryan Theriot or Mark DeRosa might be able to spell Jones when they face tough right-handers.
Second Base - Yes, Mark DeRosa is coming off a career year and was one of the team's bigger free agent acquisitions this offseason, so you'd think this would be an automatic upgrade. It's not. If he repeats his career year, then yeah, the Cubs have got a more jovial version of Todd Walker on their hands. In other words, no change. But if DeRosa plays the way he did from 2000-2005, then the Cubs spent $13 million on Ramon Martinez. There is some good news, however, in that Lou has seemed to take an appreciation of the scrappy Ryan Theriot this spring. If Theriot's numbers in limited at-bats last year are any indication, he might very well put up DeRosa 2006 numbers, if given a chance. So while DeRosa is a decent bet to suck, at least the Cubs have solid insurance in Theriot.
So that's that.
With the news that Carlos Zambrano is on the verge of signing a huge extension, all is good in Cubland. The team is significantly better, and they should remain in contention in the weak National League till at least August. It might not sound like much, but it's a start. With a little luck, they can win the division with 85 wins. And the Cardinals proved....you know where I'm going.
Would I rather be sitting here like I did in the spring of 2004, with five aces and all-stars at almost every position, picked by Sports Illustrated (and others) to win it all? Of course. I'm not stupid. But after the last two years, I'll take what I can get. And if I get a team that can hold my interest until football season starts...it's something. And something is better than nothing.
Your 2007 Cubs - Something is better than nothing!
PS. Did you notice who didn't get mentioned in this preview? 40% of the aforementioned five aces, perhaps? Yeah, it was intentional.