Final Thoughts on Chicago Sports

Should the Bulls trade for Kobe?

It's a code-red at ESPN, folks.  Kobe Bryant wants out of Los Angeles.  There aren't a lot of teams that both have the trading chips and would be a good fit for Kobe, but the Bulls are at or near the top of everybody's list.  Should the Bulls do it?  Abso-frickin-lutely.  But what would it take?  Let's look at the candidates:

The Blue Chips

• Luol Deng is awesome, and at 22 he's just starting to blossom into a star.  Will he ever be as good as Kobe, though?  Not a chance.  Kobe's a perennial MVP candidate, the most explosive scorer and one of the best defenders in the league.  I love Deng, but he's no Kobe.
• Tyrus Thomas is an athletic freak with monster upside.  Outstanding in spurts.  It wouldn't be out of the question to see him grow into a perennial All-Star. 

Flash

• Ben Gordon is an outstanding scorer that can put up 30 on any given night.  Hell, any given quarter.  But he's awfully short and can get exposed by bigger guards on defense. 

The Rest 

• Kirk Hinrich.  The Captain's a really good player, but I think he's about as good as he's ever going to be. 
• Andres Nocioni is a gamer.  All heart.  The city loves him.  A good 3rd or 4th option on a playoff-caliber club.
• Ben Wallace might be involved for salary matching reasons.  Big Ben was solid this year, but he wasn't the Defensive Player of the Year candidate the Bulls thought they were getting.
• The Number Nine pick in the draft.  It is what it is.

The Offers 

• ESPN Radio this morning suggested Deng, Gordon and Wallace for Kobe and Andrew Bynum.  Bynum's a decent 7-footer and would make up for the loss of Wallace.  So Deng and Gordon for Kobe?  In a heartbeat. 
• Chris Sheridan suggests Thomas, Gordon, Duhon and Nocioni for Kobe.  That's a lot of bodies to give up, but they'd still have Deng, Hinrich and Wallace to keep Kobe warm.

I think the Bulls would definitely have to give up one of their blue chips, Deng or Thomas.  In addition, I think Gordon would have to be a goner as well.  Essentially, the two best players on the team, possibly the draft pick and one of their other good players for Bryant.  Is he really worth all that?  After all, he's an aloof rapist that doesn't get along with, well, anybody.  He's such a good basketball player, though, so it's easy to overlook his faults!

Kobe's estrangement from his teammates is easily explainable.  He was the son of a former basketball player, travelled the world, and grew up differently from everybody in the league.  He speaks Italian, for heaven's sake, so it's understandable that he doesn't get along with his hip-hop oriented teammates.  The rape thing is tough to overlook, though.  He was found not guilty, but the scarlet letter will follow him till he dies.  I don't know.  I was convinced at the time that he was guilty of something, but he's been a model citizen otherwise and maybe it really was consensual.  I feel icky for even thinking about this. 

The bottom line is Kobe is an MVP, he's won championships, and the Bulls could more with him in the fold.  If they can do it, they should.  I don't think the current core can win without an elite player.

Why can't the Cubs win?

I don't get it.  The Cubs put together a solid team this year; not great, but not bad either.  They've received solid starting pitching, the hitting has been decent, and the closer has blown only one save.  The middle relief has been shaky lately, but not awful enough to explain the team's record.  (Four games under this Memorial Day, if you're scoring at home.)  So let's play the blame game, shall we?

The Bullpen - until two weeks ago, the pen was nearly as solid as the rotation.  They've been pretty awful of late, though, so it's easy to put them first on the list.  Eyre and Howry have been particularly mystifying, as they were supposed to be the core of this pen.  A few weeks ago, Steve Stone more or less accused Dusty Baker of overusing these guys in meaningless games last season, going against a direct order by Jim Hendry to take it easy on the two guys with long-term deals.  Stone isn't the first to pin the Cubs problems over the past few years on old Dusty.  Analysts all over the globe blame him for ruining Wood and Prior, basically from over-use during the stretch run in 2003.  Can't say I disagree with those analysts, but I'd really rather stop living in the past and stop blaming Dusty for everything.  Yes, he used them too much, probably, but it can't be said definitively that he was the reason they turned to sawdust.  Besides, he's been gone for nine months and it's time we move on.  Bitching about Dusty isn't going to solve anything.

Clutch Hitting - What are they, one for their last 25 with the bases loaded?  Do they lead the league in LOB?  It sure seems like it.  A lot of analysts say clutch hitters don't exist.  Clutch hitting exists, of course, but players that possess some magic skill to buckle down and repeatedly get hits at a higher rate than when nobody is on base simply doesn't exist.  Good players get on base roughly 35% of the time, and they continue to do so when the game is on the line.  A good hitter might have one or two seasons in their career when they actually do hit 20% higher in clutch situations.  But for the most part, hitters hit at their normal rate when its close and late, and the "best" clutch hitters maybe end up with a five percent boost in clutch situations over their entire career.  Do you know what five percent is?  One extra hit every two months.  That's some clutch.  So anyways, I guess this is a long-winded way of saying that I think the Cubs bats will wake up in clutch situations sooner or later. 

Stability in the Lineup - I blame Hendry for this more than Piniella, but the Cubs have four starting outfielders dividing their time at two outfield positions, and it appears that none of them plays very well in a part-time role.  Well, maybe Floyd's numbers haven't suffered much as a part-timer, but everyone else has seemed to drag somewhat.  I think Murton's the worst off among the OFers.  He just doesn't look comfortable up there when he comes into the game cold.  When he gets two or three starts in a row, you can see his swing get better by the day.  When he sits, he rots.  I don't know what can be done about this.  Trade Jones, I guess, but Murton in Center is a nightmare that I'd rather avoid.  Screw it, trade all four guys for two regulars.  Theriot, Izturis, and DeRosa all moving up and down, in and out of the lineup at an incredibly fast rate doesn't appear to be doing much for any of them either.  Find a lineup and stick with it.

Alfonso Soriano - Overall, he's been decent.  But I expect a whole lot more than decent for $136 million dollars.  A lot of guys take a full year to really get adjusted to day baseball and Wrigley Field.  (See Derrek Lee and Moises Alou for two recent examples.)  So I'm not going to start ripping The Fonz just yet.  But still, if he doesn't start looking like the 40-40 guy I thought they signed soon, it's going to be a long eight years.

Carlos Zambrano - He's supposed to be the ace, and except for last Saturday he hasn't been very ace-like.  Pitch like an ace and earn your next contract.

And that's pretty much it.  They address those problems, and things might start looking up.  (Especially with the Brewers falling apart.)  Then again, Marquis and Lilly have both far exceeded their expectations so far, and if Zambrano, Fonzie, and the Pen don't start making up for this eventual downfall, the 2007 season will be over by the Fourth.  Of June.

Cubs take two of three from Sox

With the Bulls playoffs and Bears draft, I haven't had a chance to write about the Cubs lately.  They haven't really been bad, but they had lost their last three series heading into the Crosstown Classic.  The bullpen has received the brunt of the blame for the recent slide, but really its simply been more of the same:  no clutch hitting.  The reason the Cubs record out of the pen was 2-11 is that they weren't able to come back in late innings.  The bullpen ERA and performance has been middle-of-the-pack in the NL.  Nothing to write home about but not exactly Alfonseca-like either.  Over the weekend, there was some talk about moving Dempster to the rotation, a move that I don't get.  Dempster sucked as a starter.  Mets blowup aside, he's been pretty good this year and he was pretty good in 2005.  He hasn't been a decent starter since the year 2000.  Moving Dumpster to the rotation and a rookie like Guzman or Marmol to closer causes more problems than it solves.  It seems they've already backed off this idea, which is good.  Just the fact that they thought of it was ridiculous.

As for the Sox series, the first two games were awesome.  (Like I would describe them as anything but.)  I went to Saturday's game, and when Lee hit that bomb, Wrigley was as loud as I've heard it since Kerry Wood hit that home run in game seven of the 2003 NLCS.  Just nuts.  Just a great win. 

Of course, talking to a Sox fan like Perry, those wins should be nothing to get all excited about.  The Sox' pen is awful.  Way worse than ours, it seems.  Whatever, I enjoyed our two days of bliss before Zambrano imploded on Sunday. 

What is up with that guy?  Head case?  I know he's side-arming it a lot this year, and apparently that's dinging his velocity.  But his velocity is up when he goes over the top, so it doesn't look like there's an issue with his arm.  All I can assume is that he's thinking about his contract every time out, which is a shame.  I hope he gets whatever's ailing him resolved soon, as Marquis is starting to fall apart himself and we'll need Z at full strength if there's any hope for this season.

Da Bulls: It's Over

There's really not a lot to say about this one; the better team won.  Final Thoughts from Mike and Jim's three part series on the Bulls-Pistons series are below...

Jim:  Well, last night sucked.  I guess they just weren't ready for the big time.  I really thought they were in control at halftime.  They just couldn't sink any shots though, really for most of the game. 
 
On the whole, a successful season.  They won a playoff series, and got some good seasoning against a veteran playoff team.  I'd like to see a real blockbuster off-season.  I'm still not convinced that Gordon is really a piece of the puzzle for this team's future.  I wouldn't mind seeing a big trade this off-season with him involved and that Knick's pick.  Unless of course, they hit gold and that Knick's pick ends up being one of the top two, where they could get either Oden or Durant.  We'll see what happens. 
 
Now we get to focus on baseball.  Yay.

Mike:  Yeah, they simply went cold and had no inside presence.  They don't have any alternatives for when their shots aren't falling.  Hopefully they'll get it resolved in the offseason.  Pretty much everything we said last week (after we thought the series was over the first time) still applies.

All we can do now is hope our five percent chance of landing one of the top two picks comes through!

Let's go lottery balls!

Another Bear wants out

Alex Brown is the latest Bear to seek a trade.  What is it about this team that drives people away?  Jones, Briggs, and now Brown?  Who's next? 

I think Brown wants out because he saw who the Bears picked in the second round of draft, Mr. Dan Bazuin out of Central Michigan.  Now, it's not like the Bears have slated this rookie for the starting lineup or anything, but with the emergence of Mark Anderson and the size of Adewale Ogunleye's contract, it's pretty clear that Brown is the odd man out.  If you read that article I referenced above, the Bears are saying all the right things and it sounds like this is purely Brown seeking if there's a better fit for himself.  He sees the writing on the wall, and he also probably sees that a career high of seven sacks probably won't cut it with hungry DEs behind him. 

Personally, I like Alex Brown.  He's a complete football player.  He may not rack up the sacks, but he stops the run, forces fumbles, tips balls and generally plays a solid all around game.  He's a better fit for the Bears defense than a Simeon Rice-type, a player who gets a dozen sacks a year but is virtually invisible on every other down.   You know, like Adewale Ogunleye.  He's the guy the Bears would probably choose if they had to pick a Defensive End to cut.  It's just his contract is too big to even think about it, so Brown's a lot easier to move. 

Oh well.  It's not like Brown would be a great loss for the team.  It just sucks that the team that was a mediocre offensive performance away from winning the Super Bowl is now deflecting core players left and right.  Let's hope Lovie can keep it together for another run.

Hester is getting Offensive

The Bears announced that Devin Hester is moving to offense, starting with mini-camp this weekend.  Hester is just a tremendous talent, a game-breaker in the truest form; but nobody's going to miss his Cornerbacking skills.  The Bears are going to start by lining him up in the slot, and maybe work him into the backfield on occasion.  Whatever.  Give him 5-7 extra touches a game and you're looking at another six or eight touchdowns in 2007.  Just tell him right or left and watch him fly!

In other Bears news, Garrett Wolfe is the first NFL rookie to sign a contract.  I wonder how he's going to fit into the Bears offense with Hester.  Logically, you'd try to avoid having the two little guys on the field at the same time.  But think of this for a minute... Wolfe goes right, Hester goes left, Olsen shoots up the middle.  Who's the linebacker going to cover?  Any one of those guys can take it to the house.  And I think Grossman just soiled himself. 

Finally, lock up your daughters and hide your guns because Tank is outta jail!  Now he has to face the wrath of Goodell.  The new commish hasn't exactly been a pushover with Pacman getting bumped for a season and Chris Henry losing out on 8 games, and neither of those guys were ever convicted.  Tank's rap sheet isn't nearly as long as those two guys, though, so look for him to end up with 4-8 games. 

How many days till Training Camp?  Bear down.

Bulls Make a Statement in Detroit

And that statement is, "why the Hell couldn't we play like this earlier?!"  Like roughly 99.9% of the sporting world, I wrote off the Bulls chances to win this series on Thursday night.  Having been demolished in games one and two on the road before blowing a 19-point, second-half lead in game three, I thought they may scrape together one victory.   But there was simply no way this series goes beyond five games.  Well, after holding on to victory on Sunday, the Bulls destroyed the Pistons in game five tonight in Detroit, and the series is officially on. 

The odds are still quite long against the Bulls advancing, as no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in NBA history.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they get blown out of the playoffs on Thursday night.  It's just the fact that there is a Thursday night is what impresses me most.  I thought they were dead.

If they had only been able to hold on to that 19-point lead in game three, the Bulls would be up 3-2 right now.  Talk about infuriating. 

So how'd they manage this mini-comeback?  Well, for starters, Detroit started looking past Chicago.  Much like Miami two weeks ago, the Pistons think they can simply flip the switch and bury the Baby Bulls.  Not gonna happen, especially when the Bulls are hitting 60% of their shots.  Ben Gordon was simply on fire tonight, while Deng and Hinrich were near the tops of their games as well.  Toss in some inspired play by Tyrus Thomas, PJ Brown and Chris Duhon, and the Bulls had six players at or near their peak performance.  Even the worst teams in the league are tough to beat when their players are clicking.

In fact, the only subpar performances were by Wallace and Nocioni.  Since Skiles mercifully cut Noce's minutes, and Wallace was still able to contribute on D despite his lack of rebounds, it's no wonder the Bulls won.  Oh, and let me tell you about the defense.

Smothering.  As good as the Pistons looked in the first two games, that's how good the Bulls looked tonight.  While Billups was fouling his way to the bench, Webber and Sheed were rendered useless.  And Prince was completely invisible.  You simply can't compare games 1 & 2 to tonight's game.  Tonight was like Bizarro Game Two.  Did they switch jerseys?  I simply don't get it.

Oh well.  I'm not expecting them to win this series, obviously, as Detroit can wake up at any time and end this season.  But if the Bulls win Thursday, all bets are off.

Go Bulls!!!!

Pardon the Interruption for more Bulls talk

To finish what we started on Tuesday...

MJ:  Ok, now that the series is over....what now?  What a horrible display of basketball.  Even when they were up 19, I wasn't remotely confident.  They still looked scared and completely lacking confidence, even when they were building that big lead.  What a demoralizing series. 

Jim: I pretty much felt the same way you did.  I wasn't confident they could hold that 19 point lead.  Most of their baskets were a struggle and I knew they couldn't keep that up.  I was just surprised how quickly it vanished.  I thought it would take Detroit until mid-4th quarter or so to take the lead. 
 
Nonetheless, what's amazing is they were still in that game with like a minute to play and Nocioni shooting those free throws.  If he makes both, it's a one possession game and who knows what could happen.  They win that game, get some confidence, who knows maybe they could win game 4 and push it to 6 games.  By no means could they win, but at least extend the series.  They will be VERY lucky not to be swept. 
 
They all looked scared though.  Deng especially.  I walk away from this series not knowing if he has the killer instinct to be that go to guy for them as they've hyped him up to be.  Gordon inch for inch is probably one of the best scorers in the NBA, but he's just too damn small. 
 
This team may need some drastic measures in the off-season to take the next step.  Of course, if they strike it rich in the draft and get Oden, it would take care of everything. 

MJ: Nocioni was the LVP of this series.  Just awful, from start to finish.  Skiles shouldn't have given him all those minutes, especially at the end.  You mean, after shooting less than 20% for the entire playoffs, you think "he's due" and all of a sudden going to get hot in the closing minutes of a tight game?  Come on.

I'm not sure if this team needs to be blown up, though.  Reinforcements, for sure.  They get Oden or Durant, and they're set.  Otherwise, they'll have to trade off some of this young talent for a big man.  Gasol would be nice, but I still don't think he's worth a Deng.  Of course, Garnett would be the dream acquisition.  (though that dream isn't as good lately with the T-Wolves missing the playoffs three years in a row.)  I don't think he's going anywhere unless he pulls an Iverson and requests a trade.  Assuming he does, what would you give to get him?  Surely Deng or Gordon must be a part of the package, and I'd trade Gordon if I had to choose, but who else?  Thomas?  Think Gordon, Thomas and the Knick number one would do it (provided it's not top 3). 

All I know is this has been a completely demoralizing series.  I was so excited after the Miami series, but now I feel like I've been watching Super Bowl XLI for a week straight.  Well, not that bad, but it was certainly a miserable experience watching the game last night. 

Jim:  I think the way they laid down in this series is the most disappointing.  If anything, you could always count on this team to be tough and hard-nosed.  They look like a bunch of sissies right now, far from a Scott Skiles/John Paxson team. 
 
I'd offer up the package you suggested for Garnett.  I'm not sure that it would be enough though, as they turned the same thing down last year with Deng in there instead of Gordon.    I wouldn't trade Deng right now, even though he's been massively disappointing in this series.  Seriously as awesome as he was vs. the Heat, his flop in this series almost completely cancels it out.  He had some opportunities to knock down some big shots last night and he missed them. 
 
I'd give Nocioni the benefit of the doubt since he's been hurt.  He's a valuable guy to have with his energy and effort.  I'd keep him around. 
 
Hinrich is good, although not a star.  It would be nice to win that game 4, even though they are already finished.

MJ:  I'm not down on Nocioni long term, I think overall he's very good and he was one of the few Bulls to really stand out and hit clutch shots in the playoffs the last two seasons.  It's just this year, bad foot and all, he's been awful.  I blame Skiles for playing him too much.

I think Minnesota would have to take that package.  Two young guys with All-Star ceilings and a high lottery pick for an aging former MVP.  Garnett is only useful for them if they plan on making a Finals run in the next year or two.  Gordon and Thomas would be a valuable pair for the next 10 years, to say nothing of the lottery pick. 

I'm kind of torn on Hinrich.  I like him, he's a good player and all, but he's rarely great and I just don't ever see him making an All-Star team.  And he's very inconsistent.  At his best, he'll give you 20 points and 10 assists.  But at his worst, he'll give you nothing.  A good guard should be able to make plays and get you assists even when his shot isn't falling.  Hinrich just disappears far too much.  Not that we can't win with him, but I can't imagine him being anything better than the "fourth best player on a championship team."  Which is fine and dandy, but you expect more from the face of the franchise.  Fair or not, I think he's the guy the Bulls center their marketing around. 

What about Ben Wallace?  Do you think his five year deal was a mistake?  Would you rather have kept Chandler?  In hindsight, and assuming Tyson played in Chicago the way he has in New Orleans, it's clear that keeping Chandler would have made more sense.  But I'm not a fan of revisionist history.  Chandler had five years to prove himself, and he clearly regressed in his last year in Chicago.  His 2006 playoff performance was especially brutal, and I can't blame the Bulls for dumping him in favor of Big Ben.

Jim:  From what I heard Minnesota has had some financial troubles and the draw of Garnett is pretty much all they've got going right now. I just don't see them dealing him.
 
I kind of think differently about Hinrich.  You can always expect good defense out of him, and he generally takes good care of the ball at the point guard spot.  He gets in trouble when he tries to do too much, in other words score too much.  I think if he had a bigger two guard playing along side of him he could be an all-star.  He just has to score too much though when Gordon disappears.  I think he may still be the best player we have right now, though Deng has the most potential. 
 
I would take Chandler back right now for Wallace.  Wallace is just too surly, old, and generally unproductive for the money he makes.  We'll be lucky to get one more good season out of him really.  I'd try to trade him back to the Pistons in the off-season. 
 
Chandler probably would have never realized his full potential in Chicago, but the fans had already kind of forgotten he was the #2 overall pick in the draft.  He was awful in last year's playoffs, but I think they should have stuck with him.  At his height, he causes some major problems with blocking shots and rebounding.  Wallace has to tap most rebounds to himself like Rodman used to. 

MJ:  I don't think Hinrich's defense is that consistent, though.  Billups has destroyed him in this series, and he commits a ton of turnovers.  Yes, he forces turnovers, but he commits more than he forces.  If there was an expansion draft, and I had to choose players to protect, I'd probably put Hinrich after Deng, Gordon, and maybe even Thomas.  Hinrich has just about peaked.  Those other three have not.

Any other thoughts? 

Jim:  Billips would tear up most other guards in the league, too, though.  Remember Hinrich has shut down DWade each of the last two years of the playoffs.  Well, maybe not shut him down, but has kept his hands full.  Like I said, I think Hinrich's main problem is he's been handi-capped by playing with a 2 guard with point guard (if that) size. 
 
Someday Thomas could turn into a star.  The guy's got mad athletic ability.  He's probably the best athlete they've had since the Jordan era.  

MJ:  Regarding Thomas, that's a bold statement.  I mean, Dalibor Bagaric was awfully talented. 

Jim:  Yeah, don't forget about Khalid El Amin & Dragan Tarlac.  

My only other thought is I hope they don't get swept.  Even though they have no prayer of winning this series, getting swept could have a lasting effect on the mindset of these young players.  I think it's important for them to win a game, just for their own mental well-being. 

MJ:  As for avoiding the sweep, I honestly don't think it matters at this point.  If they were to somehow win two or three, then yes, it would be beneficial.  But extending the series one game won't mean anything.  They're shot.

Ladies and Gentlemen, your Chicago Bulls!

Subject: awful

An email thread from earlier today...the part of Jim is being played by my cousin, Jim.

MJ: You can probably tell by the subject, but this email is about The Bulls.  Have you ever seen a more wretched display of basketball?  They look like a High School team against NBA Champions.  It's not even close.  Only Ben Wallace looked like he belonged on the court.  What the hell?

Jim: Wallace and maybe Tyrus Thomas. 
 
I don't know that it's necessarily the Bulls are that bad, or the Pistons are that good.  It's tough to beat a team when they shoot 50% plus on both FG's & 3PT FG's.
 
The Bulls clearly look rattled though, and I don't know that they have the confidence at this point to come back and even win a game, home court or no home court.  I would expect or hope that they'll get at least one in Chicago though.  I don't know that the Pistons can maintain this high level of focus and play this well on the road, where the Bulls have been tough. 
 
I think some lineup changes are in order.  I'd start Thomas over P.J. Brown who is worthless in this series.  I'd also start Sefolosha or at least give him more significant minutes.  Put Hinrich on Billups and let Sefolosha guard Hamilton.  Gordon has been completely ineffective and can't defend against any of their guards.  Bring him off the bench like before and let him find his spots.  He's too small for this series.   
 
The most disappointing thing though has been the play of Deng.  He looked like a budding star vs. Miami, and he looks like a scared rookie in this series.  Nocioni's play has also been atrociously bad, although I'll give him a little leeway since he's been injured. 

MJ: Thomas only did good in garbage time.  In game one and in the first half last night, he was wild and out of control.  I actually stopped watching last night about half-way through the third quarter.  I periodically checked the score to see if they made any miraculous comeback, but of course that never happened.  Watching "Heroes" seemed like a much better way to spend my evening.

They seriously looked like the post-MJ Krause Bulls that won about 12-15 games per year.  They looked like the "Jamal Crawford" years, when he would score 30 and they'd lose by 5, or he'd score 5 and they'd lose by 30.

Yeah, Deng disappoints the most, though.  He was supposed to be mister consistent.  Like you said, he's been flailing around like a rookie.  And Gordon just looks like a midget out there.

Jim:  They looked bad, very bad.  But, remember this is the playoffs and they are playing perhaps the best team in the NBA right now.  The old Bulls couldn't even win 20 games, let alone make it to the semifinals of the playoffs.  Even if they get swept, the season was an improvement over last year as they finally won a playoff series. 
 
At any rate, the series is a long way from over.  They could come back and tie it up 2-2 and it's a series again.  I still think Thomas & Sefolosha should get more minutes, if anything just for energy and switching things up.  They are better matchups than Brown & Gordon. 

MJ:  I don't think it's over, but it's obviously not looking good.  I've seen teams come back from one blowout and win a series, but I can't think of a team coming back from two blowouts and do anything other than get swept or lose in 5. 

And I don't think the Pistons are the best team in the NBA right now.  Best in the East, without a doubt, but I think both San Antonio and Phoenix are better. 

Jim:  The Pistons are playing better than anyone right now.  As you said, back to back blowouts in the playoffs just don't happen.  Remember the Pistons completely destroyed the Shaq & Kobe led Lakers three years ago, and they look just as good now, if not better.  I'd have a hard time seeing them losing to anyone right now. 
 
That being said, let's see what happens in game 3 when the Bulls get back home.
 
On another note, have you ever heard anything more annoying (or stupid for that matter) than the Pistons PA announcer.  What the hell is up with that shit?  What happened to the day when a PA announcer was there to call the game, with some freaking dignity?  Not to try and be part of the entertainment themselves?  How dumb. 

MJ: The Heat guy was atrocious, too.  I think that's just the way 80% of the NBA is.

As for the Pistons, five days ago I would have said the Bulls were playing as well as anyone in the playoffs.  I just think the Pistons are a terrible matchup for the Bulls.  But what I really want to know is, how did the Bulls win 3 out of 4 against these guys in the regular season?

Jim: Good question.  In a way, I think the Pistons are somewhat like the Bulls.  They don't have a star (although their "good" players are far better than ours), so they have to rely on pinpoint execution and all-out effort to win games.  I simply think they were unmotivated in the regular season.  And, I know in at least a few of those games they were missing people while the Bulls were always healthy. 

MJ:  I just checked the game log.  Back in January, the Bulls won by 17 but Billups didn't play and it was before Webber was acquired.  Deng and Nocioni dominated this one.

In February, the Pistons won at home by 2 with their full lineup.  Gordon, Deng and P.J. Brown had solid games for the Bulls. 

In March, the Bulls won by 2 at home with Webber missing in action.  Gordon was again the man.

Finally, in April, the Bulls won by 18 at the Palace without Ben Wallace and against a full roster of Pistons. 

So I really don't get it. I think it boils down to the Pistons are going to stop hitting over 50% of their threes sooner or later, and the Bulls are going to start hitting more than 20% of theirs.  It's gotta even out sooner or later, right?  A rebound wouldn't hurt either.

Would ya look at that? The Cubs are over .500.

Nothing cures the ills of a season like a pair of series against the Pirates and Nationals.  The Cubs, coming off a pair of wins against the Cardinals last weekend, have now won 8 of their last 9 to turn a six-game hole into one-game positive.  Not a bad week, to say the least.  So is this team for real?  Or was it just a hot week?  I think they're for real.

I'm going to go geek on you for a minute now, so bear with me.  Ever hear of the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball?  It's old news to Bill James fans, SABR researchers, Rob Neyer fans, and a large percentage of the baseball-blogging universe.  Assuming you don't fit into any of those categories, I'll tell you what it is.  It's a math formula that looks at runs scored versus runs given up, and it tells you what your expected winning percentage should be.  The Cubs, having scored thirty four more runs than they've given up this season, have an expected record of 19-10.  Only the Red Sox and Mets have an "expected record" better than that.  Now, don't get me wrong, the Pythagorean record isn't nearly as important as the actual record.  You don't get to have a parade down LaSalle Street by having the best Expected Record in the majors.  But it is a useful stat when for you're looking at the future.  Which teams are playing over their heads?  Which teams are underachieving?  The Pythagorean record is a good place to start looking for those answers. 

So why have the Cubs underachieved?  Simple, really.  Their record in close games is abysmal.  After today's comeback victory over the Nationals, the Cubs are 1-6 in one-run games, and they've only won three games by two runs.  Some might think that's a negative trait, "not being able to win the close ones," but not me.  The Pythagorean standings correctly point out that the Cubs are winning most of their games by large margins.  Good teams win lots of blowouts.  In addition, records in one-run games often tend to even out in the long run.  So it's something to be positive about.

Then again, it doesn't have to even out.  A team can go several years in a row with lousy records in one-run games.  A team can have a Pythagorean winning percentage over .600 yet still finish in last place.  Again, the actual record and winning the actual trophy is obviously far more important.  But, on average, 75% of teams finish within three games of their Expected Winning percentage.   And if you're looking for reasons to stay positive about the Cubs recent success after such a lousy beginning, that's a big one.

Now, if there was only a formula to explain how Jason Marquis could keep up his 2.09 ERA.

Go Cubs!

The Heat is Gone - Bring on the Pistons!

The Miami Heat are but a distant memory in the NBA playoffs this year, but I want to get in a few words about the Bulls' sweep before we move on to round two.

As good as the Bulls looked, Miami looked just as bad.  Dwyane Wade was rusty and flat, and only sporadically did he show flashes of his usual self.  Big Ben let Shaq score in the first halves some, but completely locked down on the big man in the seconds. Zo and Payton simply looked old and decrepit, while Haslem and Williams were invisible.  Only James Posey was able to provide any sort of spark.  And with the Bulls hitting on all cylinders, it's no wonder the Bulls swept.

So what are the Pistons up to?  Well, for starters, the best record in the Eastern Conference.  It wasn't just a flukey start that they managed to ride either.  They were coasting along around .500 for two months before acquiring Chris Webber from Philly, and then they simply took off.  C-Webb picked up where Big Ben left off, more or less.  Hamilton, Billups, and Sheed are among the best in the East, and the Bulls are going to have their hands full.  But let me tell you why they're going to win.

Ben. Freaking. Wallace.  He will not let his new team lose to his former team.  The Bulls did pretty well against the Pistons this year, and Big Ben was the main reason why.  He just has their number.  And if Deng continues his breakout while Gordon keeps up his steady play, I don't see a way the Bulls can lose this series.  They're simply too deep to lose to the Pistons, and they're hungrier.  Detroit won it a few years ago, and the Baby Bulls need to eat.  Bulls in six.