Why can't the Cubs win?
I don't get it. The Cubs put together a solid team this year; not great, but not bad either. They've received solid starting pitching, the hitting has been decent, and the closer has blown only one save. The middle relief has been shaky lately, but not awful enough to explain the team's record. (Four games under this Memorial Day, if you're scoring at home.) So let's play the blame game, shall we?
The Bullpen - until two weeks ago, the pen was nearly as solid as the rotation. They've been pretty awful of late, though, so it's easy to put them first on the list. Eyre and Howry have been particularly mystifying, as they were supposed to be the core of this pen. A few weeks ago, Steve Stone more or less accused Dusty Baker of overusing these guys in meaningless games last season, going against a direct order by Jim Hendry to take it easy on the two guys with long-term deals. Stone isn't the first to pin the Cubs problems over the past few years on old Dusty. Analysts all over the globe blame him for ruining Wood and Prior, basically from over-use during the stretch run in 2003. Can't say I disagree with those analysts, but I'd really rather stop living in the past and stop blaming Dusty for everything. Yes, he used them too much, probably, but it can't be said definitively that he was the reason they turned to sawdust. Besides, he's been gone for nine months and it's time we move on. Bitching about Dusty isn't going to solve anything.
Clutch Hitting - What are they, one for their last 25 with the bases loaded? Do they lead the league in LOB? It sure seems like it. A lot of analysts say clutch hitters don't exist. Clutch hitting exists, of course, but players that possess some magic skill to buckle down and repeatedly get hits at a higher rate than when nobody is on base simply doesn't exist. Good players get on base roughly 35% of the time, and they continue to do so when the game is on the line. A good hitter might have one or two seasons in their career when they actually do hit 20% higher in clutch situations. But for the most part, hitters hit at their normal rate when its close and late, and the "best" clutch hitters maybe end up with a five percent boost in clutch situations over their entire career. Do you know what five percent is? One extra hit every two months. That's some clutch. So anyways, I guess this is a long-winded way of saying that I think the Cubs bats will wake up in clutch situations sooner or later.
Stability in the Lineup - I blame Hendry for this more than Piniella, but the Cubs have four starting outfielders dividing their time at two outfield positions, and it appears that none of them plays very well in a part-time role. Well, maybe Floyd's numbers haven't suffered much as a part-timer, but everyone else has seemed to drag somewhat. I think Murton's the worst off among the OFers. He just doesn't look comfortable up there when he comes into the game cold. When he gets two or three starts in a row, you can see his swing get better by the day. When he sits, he rots. I don't know what can be done about this. Trade Jones, I guess, but Murton in Center is a nightmare that I'd rather avoid. Screw it, trade all four guys for two regulars. Theriot, Izturis, and DeRosa all moving up and down, in and out of the lineup at an incredibly fast rate doesn't appear to be doing much for any of them either. Find a lineup and stick with it.
Alfonso Soriano - Overall, he's been decent. But I expect a whole lot more than decent for $136 million dollars. A lot of guys take a full year to really get adjusted to day baseball and Wrigley Field. (See Derrek Lee and Moises Alou for two recent examples.) So I'm not going to start ripping The Fonz just yet. But still, if he doesn't start looking like the 40-40 guy I thought they signed soon, it's going to be a long eight years.
Carlos Zambrano - He's supposed to be the ace, and except for last Saturday he hasn't been very ace-like. Pitch like an ace and earn your next contract.
And that's pretty much it. They address those problems, and things might start looking up. (Especially with the Brewers falling apart.) Then again, Marquis and Lilly have both far exceeded their expectations so far, and if Zambrano, Fonzie, and the Pen don't start making up for this eventual downfall, the 2007 season will be over by the Fourth. Of June.