Final Thoughts on Chicago Sports

Lovie Under Fire: A Conversation

With the Bears season on the line, it's time for another back and forth between me and my cousin, Jim. 

Mike:  I gave my thoughts, you give yours.

Jim:  Quick hit points, as opposed to breaking down the game, which both of us would agree was shit:

• I don't think Lovie Smith is a good coach.  Dare I say it, Dick Jauron was better at getting the maximum out of his roster.  I think you give Jauron this team and he'd have it at 5-3 even with the injuries.  Jauron is a better communicator and deals with the media better.  No, he never said anything relevant, but he doesn't look like a complete fool like Lovie does right now with respect to the Urlacher injury.  Jauron respected the media and the fans.  There I said it.  Jauron is a better coach than Lovie.  
• Angelo really should take a lot of the blame for this year's debacle.  Let's run down the list here...training camp trades eroding secondary depth, trading TJ for essentially nothing (why?, because he didn't get along with his prize RB), drafting one offensive lineman high since 2002 (who is now playing at a high level with Dallas), relying on Mike Brown to come back strong and stay healthy, picking up Adam Archuleta (no further comment needed), trading out of the first round in 2006 to select Daniel Manning, drafting Garrett Wolfe in round 3 (probably 3-4 rounds early, he wasn't even active last week), drafting Craig Krenzel (no further comment needed), and the list goes on.
• The players are who they are.  The O-line is old.  Benson is not capable of carrying the load.  Griese is Griese.  He's no saviour, he's no Tom Brady.  He's Brian Griese, a capable starter, but not capable of carrying the team for more than a week or two.  
• Defensively, they are fine on the front seven.  Tommie Harris shouldn't even be playing, but he is, and as you can imagine is not nearly as effective.  Teams appear to have figured out Mark Andersen.  Urlacher is getting older and the Cover 2 is not best for him at this stage of his career.  The corners, when healthy, are fine.  Maybe the worst starting safety duo in the NFL right now.  

Bottom line, just not a well run organization, from front office to coaching staff and I think their days as a contender are over.  Unfortunately I think we'll have to deal with 2-3 more years of Lovie and Co.

Mike: I'm not sure I agree with you about Smith or Angelo.  First of all, Dick Jauron was a moron.  Don't you remember?  He's probably a little better with the media, if only because he never remotely says anything of substance, but Lovie's not exactly bad in that respect.  He's simply loyal to his players which occasionally makes him sound like he's in over his head.

Jim: Loyal to his players?  I don't see it, unless you're referring to Tank Johnson, who made him look like an even bigger idiot.

Mike: Loyal to Grossman.  Moose.  Archuleta.  Berrian.  Miller.  Guys that are not producing.  

Lovie's in-game decision making is light years ahead of Jauron's.  I will say that Jauron was probably better at making half-time adjustments, though.  Overall I'd give Lovie the edge because he rarely makes the major blunders that directly cost the team games.  Jauron is still doing it in Buffalo.  (In the Dallas game, all he had to do was run the ball and the clock out and he would have won the game.  Instead, interception, big rally, loss.  I recall another horrible decision he made earlier in the season as well, costing his team the game, though I can't remember the specifics.  His 3-4 team should be 5-2.)

Jim: The Bills should not be 5-2, they are lucky to be 3-4, based on their injuries.  Have you seen them?  Similar to Bears, 9 guys on IR.  They lost at New England, at Pittsburgh, and the infamous squeaker loss to Dallas.  And to Denver on a last second FG.  At least they lose to good teams.     

Mike: The Denver game was a horrible loss for them.  That's a game they botched horribly with play-calling (and Denver is not exactly "good.")  That and the Dallas game.  3 return TDs and lose? 9 point lead with 20 seconds left and lose?   2 game swing = 5-2.  NOT a good coach.  I just don't see how you can blame Lovie so much.  He's not looking good right now, but he's still a lot better than Jauron.

With every recent Angelo decision, they seemed like good ideas at the time.  To witness:

• Mike Brown was healthy and playing great.  Still, he added Archuleta insurance and you, me, everyone thought that was a great move.
  
  Jim: Sure, I liked the Archuleta signing, but I'm Joe Schmoe in bumble F Ohio.  Angelo should have known what everyone else seemed to believe in the NFL...Archuleta was washed up.
  
  Mike: He played better before he broke his hand.  Still, 3 years looks like an awfully long time at this point.
  
• Kevin Payne and Brandon McGowan, the top 2 safeties in reserve, were outplaying Chris Harris and Dante Wesley in camp.  So much that the latter two became expendable.  Who knew Brown, Vasher, Payne, and McGowan would miss significant time, and that Archuleta would break his hand?  That's a pretty severe hit to any unit.  Chris Harris would have been released if they couldn't get that 6th rounder for him.   
  
  Jim: Probably right.
  
• Mike:  I wasn't a fan of trading out of the first round in 2006, but that move got the Bears Devin Hester and Dusty Dvoracek (who looked good in his one, uh, half).  Can you really argue with that??!? 
  
  Jim:  Well, they may have gotten both of them anyways.  We don't really know.  At any rate, Dvoracek has played one half of a football game in two years.  Hester is the most exciting player in football.  But he plays a position that allows him to be neutralized.  Someday he may be a great WR, but not right now.   He is what he is...the best special teams player in football. 
  
  Mike: And where would they be without him?  He's the biggest game-changer in football.  Only Brady, Manning, and maybe LDT mean more to their teams.   Yes, you read that right.  Would you trade Hester for even a first round pick at this point?  I wouldn't even think about it unless there was a top 3 pick at stake with three sure-fire superstuds in the draft.  Which there never is. 
  
• Supposedly Thomas Jones couldn't co-exist with Benson.  I have a hard time believing that, as they were a productive tandem last year.  But remember, Jones isn't exactly special.  He had the same yards per carry as Benson, and couldn't put a move on anybody to save his life.  You, me, and everyone were clamoring for more Benson last year.  We got it, and now we want a refund?  Purely revisionist history.  What the hell is Jones doing this year that's so special?  Oh yeah, nothing.
  
  Jim:  Angelo said himself that they could have afforded to keep Jones, but couldn't keep him because of the chemistry problem with Benson.  When people get paid money to make decisions and they turn out to be bad decisions, they should be called out for it.  What's wrong with that?  I don't know why Benson or Jones aren't nearly as effective this year, but I think both of them would be better off together on the Bears.  
  
  Mike:  Maybe.  All I know is Jones wasn't that great.  He was average at best.
  
• Wolfe was obviously drafted too early, but the team didn't really seem to have any holes and they were going for home runs.  Like with the Hester pick.  This one probably didn't work out.  Though in fairness I must say that the playcalling when he's in the game has been shit.  He's not a between the tackles runner in the NFL.  Get him the ball in space.  They've yet to do that even once.   
  
  Jim:  For a third round pick to be inactive on a gameday is unacceptable.  Period.   
  
  Mike: Yes, you are probably right.  Especially with Benson struggling.
  
• Columbo is doing OK in Dallas, but he's not exactly a stud tackle.  His QB makes him look better than he is.  Remember how Romo was constantly evading the pass rush against the Bears?  He makes his line look better.  Columbo wouldn't start over Tait.  Probably Miller, but I don't think he'd be too much of an upgrade.  And besides, at the time of his release he just didn't look good at all.   
  
  Jim:  He's not a stud, but he's a solid young RT.  Think a young Fred Miller.  Which, would actually be a good Fred Miller.  
  
  Mike:  Maybe.  But he was being outplayed by Fred Miller, Terrance Metcalf and John St. Clair at the time.  Columbo, as a (botched) first round pick was making too much money to be ultimately left inactive every week.
  
• The O-line is old, but still productive enough.  I really blame Benson.  He just lowers his head and tries to plow through the line before the hole is even there.  Peterson just looks so much better than him, it's not even funny.   
  
  Jim:  The O-line is old AND Benson is not good enough.  Seriously, I thought the O-line was old going into last year.  I thought they were lucky to get another productive year out of them in 2006.  
  
  Mike:  Look at Peterson run behind that line.  It's not the line.  It's Benson.

Bottom line is it's easy to pile on and find the flaws when the team is struggling.  But not a negative word was spoken about any of those moves at the time they were made.  The only two moves that drew criticism from me were a) trading out of the first round in 2006 (which netted Hester) and b) well, there is no b.  Everything else more or less made sense at the time.  They weren't indefensibly bad moves, that I assure you.

Oh yeah, sticking with Grossman.  But I even think he did OK with that move.  Grossman deserved his extended shot, and it wasn't until it appeared to look completely hopeless that he was pulled.  Lovie's timing in that regard was perfect.  It's not like they have Tom Brady on their bench.

Jim:  Lovie & Angelo are on my shit list right now.  That's obvious. 
 
I'll know for sure how I feel about Lovie by year-end.  Angelo, I'll still give him a pass, because for every Ced Benson, there's been a Tommie Harris.  For every Rex Grossman, there's been a Greg Olsen.  I think he got caught with his pants down this off-season and he'll make up for it next year. 
 
Lovie, if this team goes 5-11 this year, I will start the calls for his head.  

Mike:  Lovie gets a free pass from me.  A Super Bowl trip earns you at least one free year.  He's had to deal with lots of injuries, Tank Johnson, and a few underachieving stars.  He doesn't get a free pass next year, though.  Next year it's 10 wins or bust.

Bears Lose, Season all but Over

So I guess it wasn't all Rex Grossman's fault, huh?  The Bears lost a horrible game to the Detroit Lions today, 16-7 at Soldier Field.  Wearing their "nightmare orange" jerseys in time for Halloween, the offense couldn't score and the defense couldn't hold them.  Just a bad, bad performance all around.  Let's start this recap with the Good:

The Good
Devin Hester again gave the Bears good field position all day.  One great punt return (in only two tries) led to the Bears only TD, and a whole lot of gutless directional kicking put the Bears in great position all afternoon.  Also, the defensive line was able to put pressure on Jon Kitna a few times.  That's about it.

The Bad
The Defense wasn't terrible today, it just wasn't very good.  They only forced one turnover, and they repeatedly let a nondescript runner like Kevin Jones run all over them while constantly allowing key first downs on third down.  Urlacher and his bad back weren't able to do much, and neither was the injured Tommie Harris (save the one sack).  I can't really blame those two, because they were in obvious pain and trying to save the season.  Instead I'll blame the suddenly invisible Mark Anderson.  Where the hell has he been?  I think Bryant McKinnie ate him a few weeks ago.  And don't even get me started on Archuleta and the safeties.

The Offense
The Bears offense isn't completely inept.  I've been watching the Bears for almost 25 years, and I've seen plenty of inept offenses.  Historically bad Quarterbacks, too.  Cade McNown, Henry Burris, Steve Stenstrom, Bad Rex...nightmare after nightmare after nightmare.  The 2007 version of the offense simply can't put the ball in the end zone.  They can, unlike some of the Bears offenses from the past, get a few first downs at least.  It's just that this offense simply dries up once it gets inside the forty.  Typical Bears drive:  Start at own 40 (thank you Devin,)  Two first downs, third and long, check down, FG attempt.  The latest twist is interceptions in the end zone (thank you Brian Griese.)  Those are especially painful. 

I'm just about done with Brian Griese.  I think I've said that exact phrase before.  In fact, I did.  I mean, if he's not part of the solution then he's part of the problem, right?  Yes, the receivers suck.  (Hello, Moose?)  Yes, his coordinator has about as many original ideas as Rush Hour 3.  Griese just...isn't that good.  A good backup that can win a game or two in a pinch.  Can move the chains, but can't make plays unless the two-minute drill is on.  (By "plays" I mean completions more than 7 yards.)  In four of his five starts, the Bears offense has been unable to score 10 points through each game's first three quarters.  That's not going to get it done.  FACT. 

It's really unfair to pin too much blame on Griese.  Take a look at some the box scores from today.  So many QBs are just beyond pitiful.  There's literally only 7 or 8 guys that I can confidently say would do better on the 2007 Bears than Brian Griese.  Isn't that pathetic?  After the top two teams, it's a horribly mediocre NFL, and not very fun any more. 

And the Bears running game is beyond repair.  At least Griese can make a few plays.  Benson has maybe three good runs in him per game.  And by "good runs" I mean carries for more than 3 yards.  He's a lost cause.  Time to give Peterson double-digit carries and see what he can do with a bigger role.

So the Bears are 3-5 heading into the bye.  The season's not technically over but it might as well be.  It's officially time to stop thinking about "the season."  It's time to think of each game in singular.  Bears win?  It's a good day.  Bears lose?  A bad day.  A single loss will no longer mean anything more than an unpleasant Sunday dinner.  A single loss will no longer affect playoff seeding or even playoff chances.  It's like the late 90s, all over again.  Football games without meaning.  Ain't it great?   Now excuse me while I go hang myself.

2007 Cubs Report Card

With the World Series going on, all talk of the Cubs is virtually silent.  It's been a few weeks since the season ended, and now's as good a time as any for some reflection.  Let's hand out some grades for the 2007 campaign.

Catcher, C
The team started out the year with Michael Barrett, who had been a solid, consistent hitter over the past three seasons.  But this year he was mired in a bit of a slump.  This slump extended to behind the plate and on the basepaths as well, as he was making mental mistakes and getting picked off.  Before you knew it, he was brawling with Carlos Zambrano in the lockerroom and traded to San Diego for scraps.  The Cubs then scraped along with Koyie Hill and Rob Bowen for a month or so.  Both were above average defensively, but neither could hit a lick.  (sub .150!)  Bowen then got traded and Hill demoted, and the Cubs acquired slumping Athletic Jason Kendall and eventually promoted Geovanny Soto.  After the trade, Kendall was rejuvenated at the plate, with his OBP approaching .400.  His overall work behind the plate was solid, but his throwing arm was and is horrendous.  People always ragged on Barrett's arm, but baserunners never went 50 for 52 in Stolen Bases on Michael!  By September, Lou Piniella was going with the hot rookie and PCL MVP Soto as his every day catcher, who rewarded Lou by hitting a ton.  Because of Soto's emergence and Kendall's advancing age, the Cubs shouldn't even consider bringing Kendall back for another season.  Give Soto the job, and keep Henry Blanco (who was injured most of this year) and Hill as backups.

First Base, B+
Derrek Lee was just fine this year.  His power was down a bit, and that little extra bonus he gave the team by stealing 15-20 bases a year was virtually gone.  But he did everything else up to his usual standards and I suspect he'll be his old self next season.

Second Base, A-
I wasn't a huge fan of the Mark DeRosa signing.  I thought he was a solid utility guy at best, and boy was I wrong.  Mark's a gamer, and he hit better than I would have expected.  More importantly, he started in a pinch all over the diamond.  Second, Third, Right...he even played a game at Short.  While I wouldn't mind a little more power from Mark, he got on base consistently and kept his mental mistakes to a minimum.  A lock for the starting job next season.

Shortstop, B
The Cubs started the year with Cesar Izturis at short and kudos to Lou for recognizing his worthlessness quickly and inserting Ryan Theriot into the every day lineup.  Theriot's no all-star, but he's a competent fielder and a knowledgeable hitter that can really work the count in the late innings when the Cubs needed a baserunner.  His numbers dipped in September, but until then he was a .285 type of hitter with a .340 OBP.  Plus, the guy reaches base on opponent's errors more than anybody I've ever seen.  Perhaps it's his hustle that make defenders press to make plays quickly?  Whatever, it worked for him this year.  I don't think Ryan's a long-term answer at Short, but the Cubs could do a lot worse than sticking him in the 8-hole next season. 

Third Base, B+
Aramis Ramirez has got a little bit of another Ramirez in him -- Manny.  Great hitter, but a bit lackadaisical at times with his head not seemingly always in the ball game.  (Though in fairness, he's not 10% of the nutjob that Manny Being Manny is.)  Still, Aramis Being Aramis is the best hitter on the team.  He may not be the best at doing the little things, but he's by far the best at doing the big things.  His defense is light years ahead of where it was when the Cubs acquired him in 2003 as well.

Right Field, C
Cliff Floyd, Matt Murton, and Angel Pagan got the most playing time in Right this season.  For the first five months, Floyd was alternating stints in the training room with stints on the bereavement list, and his power outage was striking.   He became a 6 foot 4 singles hitter.  In September, though, he was like a new man.  He was absolutely murdering the ball in every direction.  Because of this, I wouldn't be upset if the team brought back Cliff to platoon for another season.  There's plenty room here for upgrade, of course, but going with Floyd again would hardly be an embarrassment.  Murton's an interesting guy as well.  For the third year in a row, he did nothing in the first half (except get demoted).  The second half, though?  Very solid.  If he could pretend it's the second half every day, all season, he would be a borderline all-star.  Not that I'm willing to find out, mind you.  But a platoon with Floyd would be just fine.

Center Field, C+
Alfonso Soriano started the year in Center before being shifted back to his position of comfort in Left.  At that point, Lou was juggling Felix Pie, Angel Pagan, and finally Jacque Jones as his every day guy.  Pagan is a fourth outfielder at best, and Felix Pie was completely overmatched at the plate this season (while being a tremendous fielder).  And Jones?  Shockingly adequate this season.  His first half was completely awful, so awful that the Cubs traded him to Florida for a seemingly new Jacque Jones.  After the "trade," Jones hit .330 and played very good defense in Center Field.  Shocked the Hell out of me.  His power disappeared, but so did his idiotic baserunning and wretched throwing arm.  I'm telling you, he was a different guy.  Smiling every day, too.  Jones was so good this year that I'm not calling for the Cubs to trade him.  He has one more year at $5 million on his contract, and that's a perfect deal for the Cubs.  I'd like to see them give Pie a legitimate shot in Spring Training next year, as the dude raked in the minors.  I just have no confidence in him, though, and ultimately settling on Jones for one more season wouldn't be the end of the world.

Left Field, B+
Soriano, when hot, is as dynamic as anyone in baseball.  When cold, he's awful.  Luckily for the Cubs he's hot more often than not.  Despite missing 30 games, he still led the team in homers and set a record with 14 to lead off games.  Those 1-0 starts work wonders for the pitching staff.  And he's got an absolute gun in left.  19 assists?  I can't believe anyone ever runs on him.  I must also add, though, that Soriano sometimes frustrates fans with a seeming lack of effort in certain situations.  Not jumping into the ivy after balls or running out popups.  Like Aramis, though, it's the big things that matter most and Soriano does those exceedingly well.  I'll take eight Alfonso Sorianos over eight Darin Erstads any day.  (And I'll cut him some slack, too, because of the Quad injuries.)

Bench: A
You can't do much better than Darryl Ward did off the pine this season.  Throw in Murton, Fontenot, Cedeno, Pie, and the rest; and you've probably got the best Cubs bench in my lifetime.  Benches can be fickle, though.  Good one season does not necessarily translate to good the next.  I'm not going to spend much time worrying about the backups, though.

Starting Pitchers, B+
Carlos Zambrano was a true ace at times, a bit of an ass at others.  This was probably his worst full season in the bigs, yet he still set a career high with 18 victories.  I think he'll be better next year.

Ted Lilly was an outstanding free agent pickup.  I didn't expect much more than a .500 pitcher with a league average ERA from Lilly.  He truly surprised, though, with 15 wins and a 3.83 ERA.  Too bad he stunk it up in the playoffs.

Jason Marquis was an even bigger shock.  I'm not a big fan of his prospects for next season, but it's hard to call his 2007 anything other than a success.  (12 wins, 4.60)  Marquis and Lilly are by far the biggest reasons that the Cubs went from the worst to first this season.  The good Lilly and average Marquis were a monster step up from all the rookies in the rotation last season.  Check out the middle of this post for an in-depth comparison of how two average joes might do in place of the greenies from last season.  Factor in Lilly being better than average, and that's your playoff explanation in a nutshell.

Rich Hill was pretty good this year, though he's got some yo-yo in him as well.  (See:  Playoffs).  He's got the talent to be better and I'm really hoping he is, because Marquis is almost certain to be worse.

Sean Marshall was pretty solid this season, too.  (Wade Miller and Steve Trachsel?  Not so much.)  I'd like to see the Cubs sign another pitcher, and keep Marshall around as the number 6 (ready in case of injuries or Marquis' inevitable downfall.) 

Bullpen, A-
The pen would be an outright A if it weren't for Ryan Dempster.  Marmol was the best reliever in baseball this year, and Bob Howry wasn't much worse.  The Cubs got effective innings from Kerry Wood and Michael Weurtz as well.  Kevin Hart was possibly the biggest surprise of all in pitching 11 stellar innings in September to earn a postseason roster spot.  Scott Eyre was horrible in the beginning of the year but quite solid in the second half.  The rest of the guys were kind of blah but all pitched few enough innings to not really have a big impact.  (Except Will Ohman, who took an awful lot of drubbings to earn his demotion.)  Finally Dempster.  He had several stretches of effectiveness for multiple weeks in a row, and he only blew a handful of Saves.  He just was worthless in non-save situations.  Tie game or down a run, he'd blow it.  Up five runs, he'd blow it.  It was uncanny.  But one inning, 3 runs or less?  Near perfect.  I don't get it.  I don't want him closing next year.  I don't want him starting either.  Feel free to keep him around for the six and seventh innings, but keep him away from the 9th.  That's all.

Coaches, A
No complaints from me on Rothschild this year.  The criticism I laid on him last year was probably unjust.  Quade, Perry, Trammell...across the board, no complaints.  I can't think of a single negative story about any of them this year.  Quite a refreshing change from year's past.

Manager, A
Lou's not perfect, but he's light years ahead of his predecessor.  Let me ask you this, how long would Baker have stuck with Izturis at Short?  Would Theriot even make Baker's roster?  Is there a remote chance in Hell that Soto would have started games in the playoffs?  Would Murton have gotten as many chances as he did, or would Jones have been his every day man in right?  Would Baker have let Marmol take on such a crucial role so quickly with Eyre and Ohman available?  Would Hart have made even a single appearance?  Would Marquis have started Game 3 in place of Hill?  (Not that Hill was any good in that game but he was the best choice.)  Lou is just better than Baker, across the board.  Lou plays the best guys, period.  He manages every game of the season to win, period.  He doesn't just sit back with his toothpick and say, "we'll get 'em tomorrow."  If he runs out of infielders he's not afraid of putting Soriano at second for an inning.  He's a winner.  He didn't win a game in the postseason, but I blame the players more than Lou.  Lou is the best manager the Cubs have had in my lifetime, bar none.  Granted, that's not a bold statement and there's probably a half dozen other guys in MLB I think are better.  He's just the best we've had yet in this town, and I'm happy he'll be in the Cubs dugout next season.

Despite the lousy finish, this season was a success.  I mean, $300 million or no, worst-to-first is quite an accomplishment.  Is 85 wins enough to be satisfied overall?  Not a chance.  But it's way more satisfying than 66 wins, that I can assure you.  Next year I expect a few minor to medium acquisitions, and with Lou's better knowledge of the roster, I expect another step forward for the franchise.  I'm thinking 92, 94 wins.  They won't be a heavy favorite like the 2004 Cubs with five aces, but they should be plenty good enough to make the postseason again, and hopefully make some noise.  Till next time....

Go Cubs, Go!

Bears Outlast Philly in a Stinker

The Bears won a nail clipper of a game today, 19-16 in Philadelphia.  Wait a minute, didn't I mean nail biter?  Hardly.  Today's contest was the type of field-goal infested yuckfest where you look for things to do to kill time.  Such as...clip your nails, check out your fantasy team on the computer, or maybe even watch some bull riding.  But enough about that, let's get to the game:

• MVP of today's game?  Devin Hester.  He only had 3 catches for 41 yards, but scaredy cat Philadelphia kicked away from him and gave the Bears good field position almost every time.  Sure, I miss the big returns.  But it's nice to start at the 40 practically every time you get the ball. 
• You could really see Donovan McNabb attacking two weak spots all day:  Adam Archuleta and Brian Urlacher.  Urlacher got the job done with 12 tackles, and Archuleta didn't give up too many big plays either.  But it was really amusing seeing the Eagles attack our all-world middle linebacker like that.  After two mostly invisible weeks, it was nice to see him step up.
• Tommie Harris stepped up in the fourth quarter, too, with two big sacks.  You can really see him hurting on the sidelines, and he made every time he stepped on the field count.  The bye week won't come soon enough for the big guy.
• The Eagles offense stinks.  They basically consist of a hurt Brian Westbrook and a mediocre Quarterback.  So today's squeaker of a victory hardly gives me confidence moving forward.  The Eagles were able to get first downs against the bend-but-don't break Bears defense, but their red zone Offense is among the worst in the league.  Against a better team, the Bears defense would have broke.
• Speaking of mediocre Quarterbacks, how about Brian Griese?  Once again, he did very little for three quarters. Just an old man playing it safe.  But man, he runs the two-minute offense well, doesn't he?  A 97-yard drive with less than two minutes on the clock and no timeouts?  I really shouldn't be saying this but that's very Elway-like.  Grossman might be a better quarterback for getting out of the gates strong and building a big lead, but Griese is far better at playing from behind and moving the chains when it matters most. 
  
  Maybe the Bears should start Grossman, and if he starts out slow or turns it over switch to Griese in the second quarter.  A hot Rex can put 21 on the board in a hurry, opening up the game for the defense to take more chances and turn a game into a blowout quickly.  A cold Rex can put 14 on the visitors scoreboard just as fast, and for him that usually means the game is over.  Start with Rex but be ready to switch to Griese as soon as things turn to shit.  Who says Quarterbacks can't be switched out like other positions?  Another reason for doing it this way would be that QBs would never come in cold when injuries arise.  I'm confident Griese could have beaten Detroit a few weeks back had he not been so rusty after a 22-month break between starts.
• Once again, the Bears had no running game.  Cedric Benson just can't seem to get into any sort of rhythm.  I'm still leaning towards Ron Turner being the culprit, not calling enough running plays and thus freezing out his own runner.  But then I look at TOAP (The Other Adrian Peterson) gain 21 yards on four carries and I start pointing the finger back at Benson.  He just sucks, that's all there is to it.
• The Wide Receivers did zilch for the first three quarters, though part of that blame can probably go to Brian Griese and conservative play-calling by Turner.  They really turned it on in the fourth, though, when Griese had no other choice but to throw down field.  Moose is finally starting to look like the old Moose again.  The guy making $4.2 million this year.  Welcome back

After last week's nightmare against the Vikings, I had an "L" marked down next to this week's game.  I think the Bears and Philly are pretty even, but Philly being at home should have given them the slight edge.  I mean, if you can't beat Minnesota at home, how do you expect to beat Philadelphia on the road?  But they came through, and the playoff push is still on.  And that's good, because I like a playoff push as much as anybody.  Now let's take of business next Sunday at home against Detroit and go into the bye 4-4. 

 Bear down.

Is Window Closing on Bears?

Multiple columnists in the local papers have declared that not only is the season over, but the Bears window to win a championship is over as well.  Say what you want about the season, and I certainly have, but I'm not quite as sure that the opportunity for a championship is completely lost.  Let's look at the evidence.  First, the defense:

• Other than Lance Briggs, every key player is signed beyond this season.  Tommie Harris is due a big wad of cash, but the following guys have already been secured:
• Urlacher, Hillenmeyer - Number 54 looks a little slow this year but I firmly believe it's because of his back injury.
• Tillman, Vasher, Manning, Jr. - as good a group of corners as there is in the NFL.  There are individual corners out there who are better, but the collective talent of these three can not be beat.
• Mark Anderson, Darwin Walker, Dusty Dvoracek, Ogunleye - Anderson and Dvoracek are on a rookie contracts, and Walker just signed for big bucks.  Ogunleye still has one more overpaid year on his deal.
• The only area of concern on defense is at Safety, and I'll take the opportunity to compare these guys to poultry.  I think Mike Brown is dead as fried chicken; Danieal Manning looks raw and Archuleta looks fully cooked.  As for the rest -- and I think I'll stop with the lame chicken comparison -- McGowan is nothing special while Payne looked like a solid rookie before injury.  I'm hoping that Archuleta recovers from his broken hand and looks like he did in St. Louis, but I'm not holding my breath.  I'm hoping that the Bears will keep Manning at safety and not mess with him by jerking him around at coner.  And I'm hoping Payne gets healthy fast for next year.  Still, this is a major area of concern.
• Offense is a mess at the skill positions and a little old on the line.  To witness:
• I think Tait, Kreutz, Garza and Brown are, while getting older, still solid enough and capable of performing well for at least one more year.  Fred Miller looks awful.  St. Clair can perhaps handle the job next year, but young talent needs to be acquired on the line for sure.
• The Receivers aren't very good, but you can win with them.  Moose will be gone, but I would think they'll have some money available for a free agent.  Berrian, Bradley, and Davis are solid complementary guys, but this team needs a number one.  It'd be awesome if Hester became that guy, but I think that'd be asking too much.
• Tight End should locked up with Olsen and Clark.
• Runningback.  They need a runner.  Peterson and Wolfe aren't the answer.  Perhaps they can sign Michael Turner?  After further thought, I don't think they need to draft a runningback high, as many great runners can be found in later rounds. 
• Quarterback.  Brian Griese is OK, but I honestly don't think he's much better than Rex Grossman, if at all.  Not to mention he's five years older.  The quality of competition Griese has faced is far lower than Grossman.  And he dinks and dunks way too much.  We need more.  Like I said the other day, if the defense and running game were clicking, Griese would be fine.  But they're not and he's not.  I'll dive into this more in another post.

So the Bears definitely have some holes, but in the weak NFC I think they can plug & play some free agents and quality draft picks and make it work.  The defense, if fully healthy, should not be a problem.  Competitive, at a minimum, and that's all you need (with some injury luck) to make the playoffs where anything can happen.  What concerns me more is the lack of effort the other day. 

Both the coaching staff and individual players pointed out the distinct lack of effort by the team in facing Minnesota.  They cited a "lost fire" after last year's Super Bowl letdown.  I think this is far more disturbing than any Grossman fumble or Fred Miller turnstile maneuver.  I mean, these guys are paid to care.  We're not talking about a High School team here.  I think this has to be a knock on Lovie Smith and his coaching staff.  I've been a big fan of Lovie.  Up until now the players have played hard, his defense has been great and last year the offense was sound.  The O had a lot of troubles in 2004 with Terry Shea and they haven't exactly lit it up this season, but for the most part he's led a quality team.  His in-game decisions have been mostly good as well.  I remember back during the Jauron and Wannie years, those guys would make 1-3 bad moves per game.  Lovie has had maybe 3 per season.  So this year's lack of motivation is the first real chink in the armor. 

I think the team is at a crossroads.  Not for this season, as this season is probably (but not definitely) over.  A few wins and they'll be back in it this season.  But I'm talking about the long haul.  I'm saying if they don't right the ship fast, this might be a downward spiral back to where the team was in the 90s.  Good defense or no, this lack of effort worries me that much.  No joke.  So please, Lovie.  Win some games and save our decade.

Peterson, Longwell Destroy Bears

The Bears lost a heartbreaker to the Vikings today on a last second 55-yard field goal by Ryan Longwell.  The final score was 34-31 but in truth, it shouldn't have been that close.  If not for some last minute fireworks, the Bears in effect lost by two touchdowns.  And there's exactly one reason why.

Adrian Peterson.  He just destroyed the Bears today. 224 yards rushing with three touchdowns, and a key 53-yard kick return that set up the game-winning field goal.  He looked like Reggie Bush at USC out there.  A man among boys.  Of course, the Bears certainly did their part in making Peterson look like an inner-circle Hall of Famer.  Poor tackling, poor defensive play-calling.  You can't arm tackle a runner like that.  You can't afford to "go for the ball."  And I don't know what Bob Babich was thinking, but if I'm calling the plays I stack 8 guys on the line and force Tarvaris Jackson to beat me.  Call me crazy, but I'll take my chances with the guy with five career starts and a QB rating of 40.0.  If he beats you, he beats you.  But Jackson didn't come close to beating them today.  He had one nice touchdown pass among his nine completions.  Today was all AP. 

Minnesota scored 34 points today without running a single play in the red zone.  That's got to be some sort of record.  Of course, the Bears weren't much better.  They managed to get the ball in the red zone exactly once. 

I'm just about done with Brian Griese.  I mean, he's OK, but he's got zero upside.  If the defense was playing like it did the first two weeks, then he'd be great.  Just don't be stupid with the ball and make a few plays.  But with the defense struggling, they need more.  They need Sexy Rexy.  Well, maybe not necessarily Grossman.  But if the Bears lose a few more they'd be stupid not to give Orton a look.  Griese is a good QB for a team with a Great Defense and solid run game.  The Bears have neither.

Actually, the running game looked pretty good today.  Benson was consistently breaking out for  8 to 12 yards a pop.  He ended up averaging only 3.7 yards per carry, but his performance was good enough to keep the tough Viking run defense honest.  The problem today was Turner didn't use him enough.  I'm going to go on record and say that the Bears will never win with Griese attempting 45 or more passes in a game.  They're now 0-2 this year under such circumstances. 

Griese's problem is he doesn't have any balls.  He checks down on virtually every play.  Take away the two long TDs at the end and he was averaging less than 5 yards per attempt.  That's not good, folks.  But oh, those touchdowns.

The first was a nice crossing pattern to Muhammad.  Griese fired it in there perfectly before Moose earned his paycheck for the first time this season.  Cutting, juking, and out-running.  After a stupid onside kick by the Bears led to a quick three-and-out by the defense, up next was the 80-yard bomb to Mr. Ridiculous himself, Devin Hester.  Where have they been hiding this guy?  Why haven't they tried this before?  This was the first pass intended for Hester this season that was more than 10 yards downfield.  I mean, the guy has got to be one of the fastest two or three guys in football, with soft hands no less, and it took them until the two-minute warning of game six to send him deep?  They should be trying this at least once per quarter.  He'd be a lock for a touchdown per game, if not more.

And then there's his punt return today.  That was nuts.  He had five guys surrounding him at the ten and he just side-stepped out of it and took off for an 89-yard TD.  Simply amazing.  Too bad the team doesn't have more Devin Hesters.

Any thoughts of this team making the playoffs should be put to bed.  While they're obviously not technically out of it, it's going to take quite a turnaround to put this team back into contention.  I think last week's great second half had everyone putting their "Bear Goggles" on, and that made us forget about the horrible performance in the first half.  I think that first-half team might have been the real Bears, and the Bears are going to join a long list of recent Super Bowl losers that haven't done squat in the following season.

Bears-Vikings Preview: Is there any hope for Benson?

With Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings coming to town, it's time to look at our own runningback drafted within the top ten picks of the first round: Cedric Benson.  At the beginning of the season, I envisioned three scenarios for Benson:

1. Monster year:  1700 yards, 12 TDs.  At a minimum.  Think Larry Johnson.
2. Very mediocre year:  1000 yards, 6 TDs, 3.5 ypc.  Call it the James Allen special.
3. Blown knee:  < 500 yards, 1 TD.  Call it the Enis.

He is well on his way towards projection #2, at best.  It's good enough to win with, but hardly good enough for the team to depend on him beyond 2007.  So is Benson a lost cause or what?

Popular perception is yes, absolutely.  The dude just doesn't seem to care.  You see him in interviews and it's like he's perpetually stoned.  I just want to know is what happened to this guy?  This guy dominated at Texas.  He ran around people, over people, and through people.  His status as the fourth overall pick in the 2005 draft was not bullshit.  He really was one of the top players in the country.  Heck, he looked pretty damn good in a limited role last season.  My only explanation for Benson's downfall, other than him being a loon, is his massive workload.  Guy ran for over 5,000 yards in college, and NFL runningbacks have a short shelf life.  (average career span is five years)  Maybe he wasted half of his in college.  I don't know, I'm grasping at straws here. 

Benson's not in danger of losing his job any time soon.  Adrian Peterson, of the Bears, is a solid backup and great Special Teams player, but he's hardly special.  He might be a little better than Benson right now, but I can't imagine him ever being ranked among the top 15 backs in football.  And Garrett Wolfe is simply too small, that's all there is to it.  Third down back at best.  (Of course, we don't really know what he's capable of because he's been in for all of five plays this season, with lousy playcalling on those plays to boot.  But I suspect he's not the answer either.)

I think the Bears just have to stick with Benson the rest of the year.  If he ever wakes up, he can become a force.  And if he doesn't?  Well, time to think about picking up a runner in next year's draft.  Hopefully, the Bears will be drafting at the bottom of the first round.  If so, there should be plenty of talent available.  Guys like Joseph Addai, Larry Johnson, and Shaun Alexander were all late first round picks; and Pro Bowls have been littered with Backs drafted later than that. 

Benson finishes the year.  If he can't get his yards per carry up around 4.0, the Bears need to cut bait and look to the draft.

In other news, Lance Briggs told the media that he's open to signing a long term contract with the Bears.  And the Bears have a huge wad of cash in their pockets that was earmarked for Rex Grossman.  Rex has become, shall we say, a bad investment and it seems unlikely at this point that he's going to get anything more than a kick out the door from the Bears.  The free agent QBs available next year aren't so hot either, unless you think Derrek Anderson is The Answer.  (I don't.)  So the Bears have money to spend, and it's clear that the defense doesn't do well without Briggs.  Seems like a no brainer to me.  Then again, it seemed like a no brainer six months ago and where are we now.

And that leads me to Sunday's game against the "real" Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings.  Have I mentioned that I hate the Vikings?  An absolutely deplorable club, and it has little to do with the current personnel.  (Only Pat Williams makes my Charles Martin-style hit list.)  I just grew up hating guys like Wade Wilson, Anthony Carter, Chris Doleman, Cris Carter, Randy Moss, and, well, pretty much all of them.  Put 'em all in a ship and set it fire.  You know, a Viking ....I won't even go there.

These days, the Vikings have a monster run defense, a great young runningback, and little else.  Their QB situation is worse than ours, if that tells you anything.  I think Orton would start for them hands down.  This game being at Soldier Field, look for the Bears to run, run, run, with little success.  They'll stick with it though, even if Benson is averaging 1.5 yards per carry.  Like last week, it'll set up the pass nicely, leading to a pair of Griese scores, one of which to Olsen.  Bears 17, Vikings 7.  Only the wrong Peterson breaking a long one will keep this from being a shutout.

 Bear down.

Bears save season by beating Green Bay

The Bears had a great win tonight over the Packers, 27-20.  This was supposed to be Brett Favre's night to shine.  Fresh off a record-setting game, National TV, Four-and-Oh, John Madden's undying love, etc.  But something happened.  The Bears defense stepped up.  The offense made plays when it had to.

At first, Favre was having his way with the Bears.  His rating was a buck-forty, he was 19 of 20, and he had a TD.  If not for Charles Tillman's two forced fumbles on the rookie James Jones, it very well could have been 21-0 after twenty minutes.  As it was, it was the most lopsided 17-7 that you're ever going to see at the half. 

Then, the defense decided to stop giving up yards.  Before the last two minutes of the game, they only gave up one first down in the entire second half.  That as much as anything was why the Bears were able to come back.  Lance Briggs was a monster with sixteen tackles.  Urlacher had a pick.  Harris and Anderson were making plays on the line.  Ayanbadejo forced a fumble on special teams (that Brad Maynard recovered!)  McGowan had a pick on the last play.  Just a swarming effort all around.  It reminded me of the second half versus Arizona last year.  The opponent's offense went a little conservative, and the Bears simply decided that they weren't going to lose this game on defense.  Whatever Lovie said at the half, it made a difference because they were truly inspired.

And the offense did enough to win.  Cedric Benson had a few nice runs against Green Bay's tough defense, but for the most part he was held in check.  Still, no fumbles.  Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark both had touchdowns and really nice days overall.  Both of those guys are plusses at their positions, unlike the rest of the receiving corps, which is average at best.  Check that.  I'm not going to sugarcoat it, the wideouts are below average.  Bottom third in the league for sure. 

Anyways, finally, the Quarterback.  Brian Griese was solid.  He had one dumb pick that he floated on a first down, but other than that he was very efficient.  He did enough for them to win.  He didn't lose the game.  He is, for lack of a better phrase, who we thought he was.  Good enough to win. 

So now the Bears are 2-3, two games behind the Packers.  Still within shouting distance.  Even if the Bears fail to win the division, the Wild Card is definitely within reach in the shoddy NFC.  Have to take care of business next week against Minnesota.  Losing to them would be brutal and would nullify this week's victory.

Bear down.

Cubs swept out of playoffs. Did they really have a chance?

I'm not surprised that the Cubs got swept.  Mediocre teams often get swept in the playoffs.  The Diamondbacks are nothing special, to be sure, but the Cubs loss isn't exactly a shocker.  Let's just say we're not talking about the '27 Yankees here.  I mean, is it a shock that a team that won only 85 games was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs?

It turns out Lou had nothing to worry about after he pulled Zambrano in game one.  That was really the only bad decision he made all series, and even that one was debatable.  Marmol was unbelievable this year, and on paper the move should have worked.  I guess you can say that about the whole series.  On paper, they should have won.  But they didn't.  They lost a tight game one before getting blown out in the next two.  And that's all she wrote.

Really, the blame falls on multiple players.  Aramis Ramirez was awful, just awful.  He had as many hits as I did.  Soriano did practically nothing.  Only Geovanny Soto managed a clutch hit the entire series.  One hit, that's all they got as a team when it counted most.  Horribly pathetic.  Then there's the pitching. 

Lilly and Hill couldn't go four innings in their respective starts.  You can't have two starters pull that crap in a five-game series.  You'll never win with that unless you've got Schilling and Johnson like the 2001 version of the Diamondbacks.  The bullpen let the opposition tack on a few more, but really with the Cubs offense hacking away like it did the games were over before the bullpen was even summoned.

I really thought they had a chance in game three.  Livan Hernandez was throwing absolute garbage.  Every inning the Cubs put at least two men on, by walk or by hit.  They just needed one hit to break it open, and they had chances in every inning.  Let me tell you what it's like to be a Cubs fan.

For the first few innings, I had a strong feeling they were going to lose the game.  I was just watching them fail, again and again.  Every time they had a chance to score, they didn't.  Then, in the top of the fifth, there was a virtual replay of the Bartman incident.  Now, before I go any further, let me share my thoughts on Bartman.

Real Cubs fans don't even think of Bartman.  They don't blame him.  Real Cubs fans, the ones that watch every game from day-to-day, don't even give him a thought.  Bandwagon Cubs fans, the types that don't watch any games until the Cubs are in contention in late September, think of Bartman.  The local beat writers don't write about Bartman.  The national media and local columnists talk about him all the time.  When local editors need fluffy content for bandwagon fans, they'll dig up Bartman.  But other than that, he's a non-issue.  At most, real Cubs fans refer to Game Six of the 2003 NLCS as "The Bartman Game."  I'm guilty of this myself.  But I only refer to this as a shorthand way of saying "the game where Alou lost a foul ball to a fan, threw a hissy fit, Prior melted down, Alex Gonzalez botched a double-play ball, and Dusty Baker sat on his butt while the Marlins scored 8 runs in one inning, killing our season in the process."  You know, "Bartman" sort of rolls off the tongue better.  Anyways...

In the top of the fifth, in game three, Marmol put two runners on base.  There was a pop foul to left in almost the exact same spot as the Bartman incident.  I shit you not.  The circumstances were different, but the Cubs were pretty much in a do-or-die spot if they had any chance of salvaging this series.  So Soriano jumps up, misses the ball (it was one row deep into the stands)...and then nothing.  He looks to the infield, and that was that.  TBS showed a Bartman flashback.  Then, miraculously, Marmol then proceeded to strike out the batter on the next pitch.  At this point, I seriously thought the Cubs were going to make a historic comeback.  It was like a weight off my shoulders.  "Bartman," the black cloud hanging over the Cubs -- not the person, has been vindicated. 

So the Cubs lead off the bottom of the fifth with a walk.  Lee grounded out badly before Livan Hernandez walks the bases loaded (including Aramis, who made his first appearance on the basepaths all series.)  All they needed was a solid single and the game would be tied.  Mark DeRosa worked the count hard before grounding into a double play, crushing Cubs fans spirits in the process.  Game, set, match.  This series is over. 

They barely did squat after that, as Arizona's bullpen dominated.  The series was truly over in that fifth inning.  Ninth inning rolls around, and it's time for Arizona to celebrate.

So the Cubs lose, and it was ugly.  As ugly as 2003?  Hell no.  As ugly as 1984?  Hell no.  It was probably uglier than the 1998 sweep at the hands of the Braves, if only because they were close in all three games of that series.  This series was literally nothing.  They did nothing.

On one hand, I'm not that upset by it.  The team wasn't that good, so my expectations were low.  On the other, I'm very upset by it.  What are they going to be able to do to get better?  Which pitchers can reasonably expect to be better next year?  Hill and Zambrano?  Maybe a little.  Any improvement from them will be offset by Lilly and Marquis getting worse.  Same goes for the hitters.  You might get marginal improvements from Ramirez, Soriano, and Lee.  But only at the catcher slot should they see any real improvement, by way of having Soto in for a full year and not messing around with Cancer Barrett and the awful hitting of the scrub fill-ins.  So 90 wins is what you get, if things go right next season.  Will that be good enough?  Good enough for the playoffs, probably, but good enough that you can reasonably expect them to end the draught?  I don't think so.

So that's that.  Cubs lose, 99 years, wait till next year.  All that crap.  See you in 2008.

Cubs vs. D-Backs, game 2: It's not looking good

For a series that's shaping up to be over quick, Game 2 has certainly been agonizingly slow.  Awful, just awful.  You know what I said the other day?  About not having expectations?  Well, while that's still technically true, it doesn't make this embarrassment hurt any less.  Gawd. 

It's hard to win games when your big three hitters are putting up big nothings.  It's hard to win games when your best pitcher gives up 6 runs in little over 3 innings.  Just a horrible performance by Lilly tonight.  Well, at least you can't blame Lou for tonight.  Did he stick with Lilly one batter too long?  Maybe, but it probably didn't matter.  If Lilly didn't give up that hit, the next guy would have.  That's just how the Diamondbacks roll.   Nothing but big hits when they need them most.  You know, the opposite of the Cubs.

These guys are playing like they did back in April and May.  Anti-clutch.  I mean, Doug Davis beats them?  Jeez. 

Is it over?  No.  Rich Hill, without any magic pixie dust or good luck charms, is fully capable of beating Livan Hernandez with ease.  Then, Zambrano can come back and dominate Micah Owings on Sunday.  Now you're looking at a one-game series back at the BOB between Lilly and Webb.  It may not seem very likely at this point, but it's possible.   Sooner or later the bats will heat up, right?  Right?

Cubs-Diamondbacks NLDS: A Cubs Fan's Preview

Cubs in five.

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Like it?  Homer alert!

I'm extremely optimistic when it's time to make predictions.  I've picked the Bears in roughly 33 of the 35 games I covered, I picked the Bulls to win each of their playoff series, and I even picked the Cubs to win the Wild Card in each of the last two years (despite the fact that I knew there was virtually no chance of them doing anything last season).  Just call it wishful thinking.

I'm not going to give too depth of a preview on this one; the web is littered with position-by-position comparisons and analysis that is far better than anything I could ever do.  Let's just boil down the preview to four points:

• Arizona has the best starting pitcher in the series, Brandon Webb.  The Cubs have the next best 3 starters.  (Zambrano, Lilly, Hill)
• Arizona has a great closer and three other decent middle relievers.  The Cubs have a horrible closer and four decent to great middle relievers. 
• Arizona had the second-worst offense in the league this season, featuring a very young lineup that has trouble with breaking balls.  The Cubs offense enters the playoffs on fire, with 47 homers under their belt in September.
• Lou Piniella has a ton of playoff experience, Bob Melvin has none.  Lou is 4-1 versus inexperienced managers in his playoff career.

That said, the playoffs are a crapshoot.  It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cubs sweep and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Cubs get swept.  That's just the nature of the playoffs.  Whoever stays hot over the next month will win the Series.  The regular season means little.  How many times in the last 10 years did the team with the best regular season record win it all?  (One - 1998 Yankees) 

So, Cubs in five.  Exorcise those demons, one round at a time.