All the Pieces are in Place: Jon Lieber Returns to Cubs
The Cubs signed former Cub All-Star Jon Lieber to a one-year, $3.5 million dollar contract. He's been injured and/or horrible for the last two years, but this isn't a bad signing by the Cubs. While it's not likely that the 37-year old will return to his 2001 form, where he went 20-6 in Cubbie blue, it is possible that he will return to his 2005 form, where he went 17-13 with a 4.05 ERA. (It's not likely, but it's possible.) Further, he's not guaranteed a spot in the rotation, so It's a low-risk, medium-reward type of move. Somebody brought up the name Rick Reuschel today as a best-case scenario. Reuschel had a few injury-plagued seasons from ages 34-35 (with the Cubs), but then he went to San Francisco (after a stop in Pittsburgh) and was excellent in his age 38-40 seasons. I think that's extremely optimistic, but hey, the Cubs are a due a few lucky breaks. One thing going for him is the nature of his injuries. Lieber's problems weren't with his arm, but his foot. So that's encouraging. I'm not expecting lightning in a bottle, though. I'd be happy with league-average.
This whole rotation is starting to scare me, honestly. There are very few "sure things" on the pitcher's mound in baseball, so asking for five aces is a bit ridiculous. But I like to see five solid options, or "kinda sure things" in the rotation at the dawn of Spring Training. The Cubs have only got three such "kinda sure things," and after that a whole bunch of question marks. Here's how I see it. First, the "kinda sure things."
Carlos Zambrano - a Grade A nutbag, but even at his worst he'll be 14-12 with a 4.20 ERA. I'm not worried about Carlos at all. He'll either win the Cy Young or merely be "good."
Ted Lilly - Last year was a career year for Ted. While I don't expect him to repeat, it wasn't far out of line with his established performance. He's a good bet to win 15 or so with a better-than-average ERA.
Rich Hill - His peripherals are solid, but he suffered the worst run support in the NL last year making his overall stats look somewhat average. (11-8, 3.92) It wouldn't surprise me to see him take a step forward but it also wouldn't surprise me for him to stay the same, if not drop off a bit.
Now, for the "question marks." (as noted by "quotation marks")
Jon Lieber - One more thing I should note is Lou Piniella doesn't put up with crappy performance. If Jon doesn't perform, he will move to the pen and/or be released/demoted. That goes for all these guys.
Sean Marshall - surprisingly effective young lefty had a solid ERA (3.92) but rarely went more than 6 innings in his starts. He's young enough to have upside and I'd pencil him in for the fourth spot in the rotation right now, but there's talk of trading him to Baltimore for Brian Roberts. I'm not sure the marginal upgrade at second is worth the loss of this potentially solid option in the rotation, so I'll keep my fingers crossed that Hendry finds a way to do the deal without losing Marshall (unless it's a larger package that includes Bedard. Then, by all means, trade Marshall.)
Jason Marquis - started off 2007 great, but finished it so poorly he was left off the postseason roster. I wasn't a fan of the Marquis signing, but I can't complain about his overall numbers last year. If he could repeat those numbers, albeit with a little more consistency from start-to-start, I'd be fine with Marquis as the fifth starter. I just have very little confidence that will happen. Oh, and I might add that Marquis is on the trading block so discussing him now may be moot. Despite the horrid finish, if a GM just looks at his 12-9, 4.60, Hendry might be able to get back more than he's worth. (which is slightly above nothing.)
Ryan Dempster - Hendry and Piniella have both said that Dempster will get a shot in the rotation, but Piniella also qualified that by saying (paraphrase) "teams try a lot of things in Spring Training that don't work out. Look at Boston last year with Papelbon in the rotation for a while before heading back to the closer role by the time the season started." He was a crappy starter before becoming a mediocre closer with a few high profile blowups. He hasn't been a good starter since 2001 so the odds of him being effective in the rotation are slim. But I guess it's possible. Otherwise, long relief for the Dumpster.
The Field - The Field consists of a bunch of prospects, basically. Sean Gallagher, Billy Petrick, Donald Veal, Juan Mateo, and a whole slew of other farmhands have a one-in-a-dozen shot of ending up in the rotation before season's end. All have upside; none are even close to sure things.
And barring another move, that's it. Three sure things and a bunch of question marks. This isn't that different than 2006 when they went into the season with two sure things (Zambrano, Maddux) and about a dozen question marks. And that season was an abortion by May 15th.
So yeah, very little confidence in the rotation right now. I like the lineup. Pie in Center is the only real question mark I see, and that potential hole can be filled with a midseason move. The bullpen ain't bad either. I suspect Marmol, Howry, Wood, Wuertz and a few others to be at least in the same ballpark as last year, and that ballpark wasn't bad at all. It's just the question marks in the rotation that have me on edge.
Oh well, in a short month we'll get a glimpse at the question marks on the mound, and we'll know very quickly who will pan out and who will fail. Till next time...