Final Thoughts on Chicago Sports

Cubs Lose Opener

It's great to have baseball back.  It sucks that the Cubs had to lose their first game, 4-3 to the Brewers in extras, but in the grand scheme of things it's just one game and nothing to get too worked up about.  

Because of the rain delays, all of the big plays happened after I left the office (and my RealAudio) at 5pm.  So I was forced to follow the critical action on my phone.  (What did people do before 3G?)  Do you know how deflating it was to see that Wood gave up 3 in the top of the 9th?  Do you know how thrilling it was to read "K. Fukudome homered to Right, D. Lee and A. Ramirez scored"?  It's obviously not as awesome as watching it live but I had to to give a muted cheer on the train as it pulled into my stop.  By the time I got to my car, of course, Howry had coughed up the game, and this time it was for good. 

Some thoughts on the individual efforts...

• Kosuke Fukudome - it's pronounced KOH-SKAY FOO-KOO-DOH-MAY.  Learn it.  Love it.  How about that for a debut, eh?  He was so awesome that I didn't even mind much when he got caught off the bag.  (On that, he must not be familiar with Jason Kendall, or else he would have known about his throwing arm and just ran to a base.  There's no way Kendall nails him.  Oh well.  I guess we'll just have to live with the 3-for-3 with a 3-run game-tying homer, a double, and a walk.) 
• Carlos Zambrano - like Ben Sheets, pitched a great game (though I think all the goose eggs were partly due to the weather.  As Lou said in the post-game press conference, "it was tough to hit.")  Zambrano, of course, left early with cramps due to dehydration.  In 60 degree weather.  Pat said on the radio that Zambrano doesn't like drinking water.  That sounds really, really weird, so I don't know if I believe it.  But if it's true, boy, they gotta get him some gatorade or something.  Fast.  It's going to warm up in 10 weeks.
• Carlos Marmol - awesome.  Kerry Wood and Bobby Howry?  Not so much.  Seems like it was just yesterday that I was touting the bullpen as one of the team's major strength.  Oh yeah, it was. 
• Pie, Theriot - didn't look good at all today.  Let's hope they have big games Wednesday and avoid an early slump.  That's always something to worry about with young players.
• Lou Piniella - I can't disagree with any of the moves.  They just didn't work out today. 

And that's pretty much that.  One game in back of the Brewers with 161 to play.  Time to start winning.  GO CUBS!

2008 Cubs Preview: The Favorites Edition

It's Opening Day and, amazingly, virtually everyone is picking the Cubs to win the NL Central this season.  Don't these people know anything about history?  The Cubs always do crappy when they're the favorites.  Especially coming off of a playoff appearance.  See 2004, 1999, 1990, and 1985.  Or better yet, don't.

So the division is still mostly crappy and the Cubs are the favorites.  So let me ask, is the hype justified?  For the third year in a row, I'm going to go through the team, position-by-position, and give a synopsis on which positions should be better, the same or worse. 

What positions should be significantly better?
Right Field - Kosuke Fukudome has been imported from Japan (literally) to man Right, and he should be significantly better than Floyd, Murton, DeRosa and the likes who played Right last season.  He should play better defense, have a better arm, hit for higher average, steal more bases and even have more home runs than the former trio.  I don't expect a All-Star or anything, but I would think a .300/.365/.475 with 15-20 bombs should be within reach.

Catcher - Last season the Catcher was pretty much a dead zone.  Michael Barrett got off to a horrible start and fell out of favor quicker than you can say Bear Stearns.  After being traded, the Cubs went with a few sub .150 hitting sinkholes in Rob Bowen and Koyie Hill before settling on veteran Jason Kendall (acquired via trade.)  Kendall was decent enough with the bating eye (.390 OBP) and calling games, but he had absolutely zero power and zero throwing arm.  (55 SBs allowed in a half a season!)  Geovanny Soto, fresh from a AAA-MVP season, came up in September and quickly supplanted Kendall in the Starting Lineup for the rest of the season (and playoffs - let's see Dusty do that!).  A full season of Soto should be a significant upgrade for the team. (I'm guessing something like .285/.350/.500 - which would be plenty good.)

Left Field - Assuming Soriano is healthy, a big assumption I know, he should be better.  If he's not fully healthy, the worst I expect is a repeat of last year (when he was quite fine.)

Bullpen - Without any real acquisitions, I have lofty expectations for this bullpen.  Last year they were quite solid, but this year they figure to be better.  Kerry Wood has been lights out this spring, and while I can't possibly count on him for an entire season, I'm just going to remain optimistic because of all the good karma he's earned.  Marmol is lights out and Howry's a rock.  Mike Wuertz really came on strong at the end of last season as well as Kevin Hart.  It looks like Pignatiello might get that last lefty spot until Eyre gets better and the Cubs have some more solid arms down on the farm in Ceda and others.  Really, there's a whole lot to like here, even if Wood continues his frail-like tendencies.  Plus, Dempster is out of there.

What positions should stay relatively the same?
Third Base - Aramis Ramirez is the best hitter on the team.  Him staying healthy and playing 150 games is probably the key to the season.

First Base - Derrek Lee has room for improvement, but I suspect that 2005 was a fluke and Lee has settled in to a .310/.400/.500 groove with 25 bombs.  Nothing wrong with that.

Second Base - I have nothing bad to say about Mark DeRosa.

Shortstop - Ryan Theriot shouldn't be leading off for this team, but provided last September was an aberration I suspect he'll be fine.  While we're at it, here's the lineup I'd use:

• Fukudome - he gets on base!
• DeRosa - he handles the bat!
• Lee - he gets on base and knocks in runners!
• Ramirez - he's got pop!
• Soriano - he can clean the table!
• Soto - he's solid!
• Pie - is getting better all the time!
• Theriot - is scrappy and not bad in the eight spot!

Center Field - If Pie could match Jacque Jones numbers (.285/.335/.400) with a little more pop and better defense, I'd be happy.  If he can live up to his expectations (budding All-Star), I'd be ecstatic.  I don't expect much, but I suspect either Pie and/or Reed Johnson can come within spitting distance of the 2007 Jones.

Rotation - As one of the top rotations in the National League last season, I don't expect much, if any, of a dropoff.  Zambrano could be a little better, Lilly could be a little worse.  I suspect the differences there will even out.  Rich Hill should be better, but thus far this spring he's been significantly worse.  Let's hope he leaves his problems in Arizona.  Dempster and Marquis shouldn't be that different from Marquis and Marshall last year, though I suspect both will be a little worse.  The Good News is Jon Leiber is waiting in the wings with Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher staying loose in Iowa.  So while I'm not overly confident in the rotation right now, I'm not too worried with all of the reinforcements available.  If everybody craps out?  Well, then we're looking at a repeat of 2006.

Bench - Daryle Ward is back and ready to repeat his hot season from a year ago.  Cedeno, Fontenot, Blanco, and Reed Johnson fill out the rest of the bench.  Nothing wrong with this group, as all are capable of a spot-start (though in case of injury other provisions would be necessary).  Murton will be keeping fresh at Iowa but will be available in an instant should anything go wrong.

Manager - Lou knows his guys so there will be no "getting to know you" period like he had last year with the cool start.  That alone should be worth 3 or 4 wins.  Certainly no losses.  Unless he throws a base or something.

Who should be significantly worse? 
Nobody, really.

So that's that.  Last year the team won 85 games.  They made a few improvements, and there's no real reason to expect a downgrade anywhere.  The hype IS justified.  88 wins should be a lock and 92 wins is definitely within reach.  Either total is probably enough to win the division, depending on how lucky the Brewers get with their rotation. 

On paper, they should easily take the division.  They don't play the games on paper, though, and something tells me that this season isn't going to go right for the Cubs.  A severe injury or two could derail this season fast, as well as some shoddy performance in the rotation.  Oh well, I'm not going to be a worry wart until I have to.  Until then I'll just drink my Old Style and enjoy the games.

Have a fun season, everyone.

Cubs Spring Training Almost Over; and a Rant about the Weather

In the last few days of Spring Training, the Cubs a) signed Reed Johnson, b) found out the Roberts deal was as good as dead, c) cut Alex Cintron, and d) decided to keep Mike Fontenot.  There's not much to talk about with the Roberts/Cintron/Fontenot moves/non-moves, but allow me a few words on the Johnson signing.

But first, I feel a rant coming on. 

It freaking snowed again today.  Snow.  On March 27th.  After a pretty horrible winter in Chicago, followed by a scant few days of nice, the weather's back and the hits just keep on coming.  Opening Day at Wrigley Field is three short days away, and it's freaking snowing outside.  And it's accumulating.  So this naturally leads to annual discussion of "why can't the baseball season start in warm cities and/or domes?"  I'm serious, this topic comes up every freaking year.  Yes, that's the third "freaking" in this paragraph.  Deal with it.

Studies have shown that the likelihood of crappy weather in the first week of April are almost exactly the same as the likelihood of crappy weather in the second week of April (in cities where the weather is typically crappy).  So unless you're advocating three-week-season-killing road trips, forget about it.  Further, the Cubs are forced to basically alternate road trips with the White Sox (for scheduling purposes) anyways.  So one cold-weather team definitely has to open at home every season. 

I'm afraid the only solution is to shorten the season back to 154 games and start the season on or about the Sunday before Tax Day.  The likelihood for good weather in Chicago improves steadily as each week passes.  Yes, it can be crappy on May 1st, but the odds of crap then are significantly lower than they are on April 1st.  Besides, with the Wild Card, 162 games are becomming less and less meaningful anyways so you might as well go back to the pre-1960 number of games on the schedule. 

And yes, you read that right.  Start the season on a Sunday, for crying out loud, so people don't have to take a day off of work to watch the game.  And fuck Japan.  That's even worse than starting on a Monday.

/rant

Ah, happy Mike is back.  So the Cubs signed Reed Johnson, and Matt Murton is out.  I like Matt Murton, and I think he could be a pretty good player in this league for a long time.  Not an all-star, but a good, solid player that can start for half the teams in baseball.  Sort of like Jeff Conine.  There's just no room for him on the Cubs right now.  He can't play Center for nothing, and to tell you the truth he's not even that good in Right.  I suppose you play him in Right and shift Fukudome over to Center, but that move degrades the defense in two places and I'm not sure the offensive upgrade is worth it.  (And Fukudome doesn't want to play Center anyways - playing Right is one of the reasons he signed here.)  So signing the Righty Reed to spell Pie is a solid move, especially if Reed hits like he did in 2006.  As for Matty, send him to Iowa to hit every day unless you can find a great trade.  (Not likely considering he'll be a 26-year old in Iowa.)  If you can't find a decent trade, keep him around as an insurance policy.  It sucks for Matt from a career standpoint, because he's a proven, solid big-leaguer. But  you have to keep him because he's far better than any of the other in-house options should Soriano or Fukudome get hurt for an extended period of time.

EAMUS CATULI

Bears Win Tampering Case; Johnson Wants Out

Roger Goodell decided that the 49ers did indeed tamper with Lance Briggs last season, so the Bears were awarded the Niners fifth pick along with a swap of third round picks (Bears up to number seven in third round, niners down to fourteen.)

Niners fans are pissed with this decision, and who wouldn't be?  But they clearly broke the rules (whether they understood them or not) so there's no sense getting too broken up about it.  It just so happens that the new commish is more of a stickler about the rules than the old commish, and he used the Niners to make an example.  Just like he did with the Patriots (by taking their first rounder and fining them $750,000) when they broke the rules.  He doesn't want players and agents getting bothered mid-season, when they should be concentrating on the games.  And now you can bet that it won't happen again.

There's nothing not to like about this deal for the Bears, obviously.  More mid-round picks where Jerry Angelo does well.  Who has Jerry drafted with his fifth round picks?

• 2002 - Bobby Gray and Bryan Knight - Ok, not that special.  But note that he sandwiched these picks with Alex Brown in the fourth round and Adrian Peterson (the lesser) in the sixth.
• 2003 - Bobby Wade, Justin Gage, and Tron LaFavor - While they were merely OK for the Bears, note that both Wade and Gage are solid NFL receivers that are not only still active but making decent money in this league (which tells you something.)
• 2004 - Claude Harriot and Craig Krenzel - Not very good at all, but note he got Nathan Vasher in the 4th this year and Chris Harris in the 6th.
• 2005 - Airese Currie - WR never panned out, but the Orton pick in the 4th still looks decent enough.
• 2006 - Mark Anderson - Awesome rookie season followed by a mediocre second season.  If he never plays another down, he still will have contributed plenty enough for a fifth round pick.
• 2007 - Kevin Payne and Corey Graham - both played well this season.  Payne especially, before he got hurt.  I can see both contributing for at least another year or three. 

On to other news.  Did you hear Chad Johnson wants out of Cincy?  He's so adamant, that I don't think there's any way he starts the season with Cincy.  They're going to have to force a trade, which in my mind means the Bears should be on the phone right now offering Cincy the best deal.  The Bears receiving corps is bottom-of-the-barrel bad right now.  Maybe not the worst in the NFL, but bottom five for sure.  (And this is an upgrade from a month ago.)  Johnson alone would vault them back into the top 15.

Johnson's pretty annoying, but he's also harmless.  He's one of the few Bengals that hasn't gotten into trouble with the law.  His biggest problem is he celebrates touchdowns a little too fervently.  He can celebrate all he wants here, provided he's scoring touchdowns.  Kind of like when Rodman came to the Bulls ten years ago.  I don't care what you do provided a) you're awesome on the field, and b) you aren't a thug off the field.  It's hard to root for thugs, but its easy to root for guys who are merely "colorful."

Wonder what it would take?  The Bears do have a surplus of fifth round picks now.  Wouldn't it be something if that's all it took? 

Bear down.

Cubs Spring Training Battles are Over

Going in to Spring Training, the Cubs had three decisions to make:

1. Closer
2. Two spots in rotation with five candidates
3. Center Field

Lou Piniella announced the winners today.  Kerry Wood will assume the Closer role, beating out Howry and Marmol.  I wrote about this a bit the other day, so I won't go into great detail.  Suffice it to say, Wood was awesome over the last four days, and those back spasms were indeed nothing to worry about.  I will note that I liked Lou's additional explanation that he preferred having durability in the setup role rather than in the closer role.  In a backwards way, that works.  Heaven forbid there's a (little) losing streak, but at least the closer can use those (few) days to rest his arm.  Right?

In the rotation, Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis have won the 3rd and 5th spots.  I'm not overly confident in either of those guys, and I suspect that neither is Lou.  But Lou chose these guys for a number of reasons:

1. The young guys weren't exactly lights out this spring and they have options left.  So Seans Marshall and Gallagher got the boot early.  They can keep pitching every fifth day in AAA and be ready at the drop of a hat should injuries strike.  There was even talk that Rich Hill might get demoted if his crappy spring carried over into the season.  He has options left, too.
2. Jon Lieber wasn't causing any static about beginning the season in the bullpen.  He openly welcomed the possibility, it seemed.  And though he outperformed the other two guys this spring, it was only by a little and Lou knew that leaving Jon the odd man out (of the veteran choices) would be the easiest from a personal relations standpoint.  So Lieber sits and waits till one of the other two guys implode. 
3. Marquis has been great in April over the past few seasons.  He's a good athlete for a pitcher and maybe that helps him get off to hot starts over batters who may not be as well conditioned.  He hasn't been so hot in May through September, but you might as well take advantage of a potential hot streak and maybe even pump up his trade value a little.  Just know when to fold 'em is all.
4. Just because they're in the rotation now doesn't mean they'll be in the rotation next week.  A lot could happen in these next seven days, and to see one of them traded wouldn't be a shock.  Especially Marquis, after his brief dustup with Lou a few weeks ago.  And I bet a "starter" on the trade market is worth more than a "long reliever" like Lieber. 

Finally, John Fogerty's favorite position:  Center Field.  Pie won it running away.  It wasn't even close.  Good.  Fuld, I suppose, will be sent back to AAA.

Still waiting on a trade for Baltimore's second baseman and/or a backup center fielder, but as it stands now the roster is set.  Is this a lineup good enough to win 95 games, as Phil Rogers is predicting?  Maybe not, but it should be plenty good to win the division.  Just got to stay healthy and stay within earshot of capabilities and the division should be theirs.

EAMUS CATULI

Cubs Closer, News

There are eleven days till Opening Day and I'm as ready as I'll ever be. Unfortunately, the Cubs are not.

The closer situation has not yet been resolved.  Bob Howry hasn't pitched that well this spring, and he's pretty much out of the running (though I suspect he'll be his usual solid self once the season starts.)  So it's down to Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood.  It seemed like Wood was establishing himself as the frontrunner, but the story today is that he's having back spasms and he's out until the weekend.  It's probably nothing, but it's always something with Wood.  I guess Lou has just been waiting until Kerry proves he can go 2 or 3 days in a row before handing him the job. But with the back spasms now, that plan is in jeopardy.

Jay Mariotti wrote a column yesterday that I thought was ridiculous but today I find myself agreeing with it.  He proposes, in his usual over-the-top-pessimistic fashion, that Marmol be the closer because of Wood's unreliability.  As good as Wood has supposedly looked this spring, it's probably not a bad idea to get Carlos used to closing out games now.  I have no qualms handing the job to such a young guy, but I was hoping that the Cubs could keep Marmol for the higher-leverage 7th and 8th inning jams.  The 9th inning guy tends to be less stressful, if that makes any sense, because it seems that more and more saves are of the "nobody on, two-run lead scenario" rather than the "bases loaded, nobody out" scenario you often find in the 7th.  But I guess "when you use them" isn't nearly as important as "who you're using."  With Wood, Marmol, Howry, Mike Wuertz and Kevin Hart, the Cubs should be all right in the pen this year.

In other news, the Brian Roberts trade hasn't happened yet and it's been having a domino effect on the Cubs:

• Roberts has Lou already prematurely dropping Soriano to 2nd in the batting order (to make room for Roberts).  This forces Ryan Theriot into the leadoff role for the time being.  I like Theriot, and he seemed to do well when leading off last season.  But a .330 OBP doesn't cut it at the top.  And I didn't even mention the fact that Soriano hates batting anywhere other than second.
• Because Jay Payton has been involved in the talks, Jim Hendry has been stalling on the acquisition of a fourth outfielder that can play center field.  Murton hits well enough for the role, but he simply isn't good enough defensively to play Center.
• Roberts is taking Mark DeRosa's position, and DeRosa is stressed out like Kramer on Seinfeld.  "Oh, I'm stressed!"
• This can't be good for Jim Hendry's heart problems either. 

Apparently Peter Angelos is impossible to work with, or else this deal would have been done months ago.  I don't know much but I know one thing.  I'm sick of this deal.  I want it done, or I want an announcement saying it's over. 

That's all.

Stuff I Like: Sports Books Edition

There's not a lot going on with Chicago Sports these days, unless you want to talk about Felix Pie's Twisted Testicle.  And while that might be an excellent name for a Fantasy team, it's something I'd rather not discuss at length. 

So with that in mind, I'm going to start a new running feature:  Stuff I Like.  This might be stuff related to sports, might not.  It might be a top ten list, it might just be a paragraph about one item in particular.  You might see this every week, you may never see it again.  Just be aware that it's NOT AT ALL like Oprah's Favorite Things.  Nope, no sir.  No free shit for the audience.  Anyways...

To kick things off, I'm going to start with a list of Sports Books that I enjoyed.  In no particular order...

1.  Moneyball, by Michael Lewis.  Most diehard baseball fans are at least aware of this book, as it brought the Stats vs. Scouts debate to the mainstream.  (Think of it as a modern day "Common Sense" by Thomas Paine.)  Anyways, the book is literally about how Billy Beane kept the Oakland A's in contention every year despite being handcuffed by a payroll that's a fraction of that of baseball's big market clubs.  But in reality it's about finding value where others don't.  And it's cool.

2.  The Soul of Baseball, by Joe Posnanski.  Joe's just a great writer, and his blog is a must-read every day.  So when Joe decides to spend a year with 94-year-old Negro Leagues legend Buck O'Neil and then write a book about the experience, that's a book that I'm buying.  Just a wonderful book about an everlasting optimist and his amazing views on life as he toured the country promoting the Negro Leagues Museum in Kansas City.  This book has a ton of great stories, and lots of heart. 

3.  Bringing Down the House, by Ben Mezrich.  "The Inside Story of Six M.I.T. Students Who Took Vegas for Millions."  The subtitle says it all, and now they're making it into a movie.  I guess this isn't really a sports book, as it's basically about a bunch of geeks that count cards.  But it's a real page-turner that involves fake identities, strip clubs, back alleys, and one pissed off casino boss.  What's not to like?

4.  The Numbers Game, by Alan Schwartz.  "Baseball's Lifelong Fascination With Statistics."  I guess I really should include the subtitles on all these books, as they expertly sum up each book in one sentence.  (Go figure.)  What the heck, I'll double-back now and give you the subtitles for the first two books on the list:

• Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
• The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip through Buck O'Neil's America

There.  As for "The Numbers Game," it's a complete history of how statistics have been used and collected since the dawn of baseball in the 1800s.  From Henry Chadwick and the origin of the box score to the Elias Sports Bureau to Bill James to Fantasy Sports to Stats, Inc and live Gamecasts on the web.  And it's a lot more interesting and well-written than I can possibly make it sound.  Speaking of...

5.  The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, by Bill James.  The godfather of modern statistical analysis gives his take on, uh, everything baseball.  Team histories, decade-by-decade comparisons, the top 100 all-time players at every position, random essays, win shares, and much, much more.  Throw in an acerbic wit and common sense approach to baseball and you've got 998 pages of pure baseball bliss.  Yes, its a 998 page baseball encyclopedia and I read it cover-to-cover.  Twice.  (Just kidding about the "twice" part, but I seriously could read it again if I had a lot more time on my hands.)

6.  Now I Can Die in Peace, by Bill Simmons.  "How ESPN's Sports Guy Found Salvation with a little help from Pedro, Nomar, Shawshank and the 2004 Red Sox."  Despite all the naysayers, I'm still a big fan of the Sports Guy and I read his work every day.  He can be a bit repetitive with his jokes at times, but he's still laugh-out-loud funny without being a potty mouth, and that's really tough to do.  Anyways, this is a collection of some of his best ESPN.com columns about the Red Sox, sprinkled with hilarious footnotes. When you put them all together, you get a real sense of the ebb and flow of what it's like to be a fan of a historically downtrodden team.  As if I would know anything about that.

7.  The Blind Side, by Michael Lewis.  "Evolution of a Game."  Another book by the "Moneyball" author, this time he chronicles how Lawrence Taylor, Bill Walsh, and the dawn of Free Agency turned the Left Tackle into a premium position in the NFL.  It also chronicles how a extremely raw-but-gifted behemoth was plucked from the ghetto and dropped into a Division I football program with his targets set on becoming a multi-millionaire in the NFL. 

8.  Positively Fifth Street, by James McManus.  "Murderers, Cheetahs, and Binion's World Series of Poker."  If you don't believe that counting cards is a sport then you certainly don't believe that poker is a sport.  I'm fine with that, but this book makes the list anyways because its my list and that's that.  This book toggles between the gruesome murder of Ted Binion and the author's own thrilling trip to the final table at the World Series of Poker. 

9.  God Save the Fan, by Will Leitch.  "How Preening Sportscasters, Athletes Who Speak in the Third Person, and the Occasional Convicted Quarterback have taken the Fun out of Sports (and how we can get it back.)"  Man, I should re-think the whole subtitle thing.  Anyways, the godfather of modern sports blogs (deadspin!) rants about what's wrong in sports and is often hilarious doing it.  He's a little light on the "how we can get it back" part and a little over-the-top in places, but I'll I'm willing to overlook it because he's so wonderfully self-deprecating and I shared a beer with him about a month ago.  Well, I didn't literally share a beer with him, as that would be pretty gay.  But I met him at a book signing and a bunch of us went out for drinks afterward and he was pretty cool.  So that's that.

10.  Crazy '08, by Cait Murphy.  "How a Cast of Cranks, Rogues, Boneheads, and Magnates Created the Greatest Year in Baseball History."  I haven't technically read this book yet, but it's next on my list and I had to put something Chicago-related on this list. (1908 - think about it.)  I'll let you know how it is when I'm done, but the reviews I've read are promising.

Next Up: The Greatest Moments in Brian-Roberts-to-Cubs-Trade-Rumor History.  Crap, somebody's already done that post.  Check it out! 

Till next time...

It's time to blow up the Bulls

Despite the victory over Utah the other night, I really think it's time to blow up the Bulls.  It's still mind-boggling to me how sour this season has gone.  Never in my wildest dreams would I have guessed that they'd miss the playoffs.  And yes, I know that they still might make the playoffs, but there's really no point.  Extending the season by a week to get embarrassed in the first round is simply a waste of time.  I'd rather lose out and get more chances at a higher draft pick, and that's something that I rarely ever would advocate.  It's that bad.

I never thought that this exciting young core would become so lackadaisical.  They just play with absolute zero passion, and this team is just painful to watch.  The Boston game last week was just an embarrassment all around.  And then Chris Duhon pulled his crap on Saturday with Duke before the entire team melted in the fourth quarter on Sunday.  Just uncontested layup after uncontested layup against Detroit.  Pathetic.

I just figured the worst-case scenario was for the team to not make progress.  Another season of one, maybe two playoff series and then go home disappointed.  This entire season has been a debacle.  One sorry spectacle after another.  And then they go out and tease us with a great game against Utah (who may or may not have been in some sort of Lost-like time-traveling loss of consciousness.)  I'm quite certain they'll be back to their old tricks on Friday.  Then maybe in a week they'll tease us again.

I'm afraid the only thing to do is start over.  I'm not sure if that's even an option, though.  The Larry Hughes contract pretty much means that the Bulls are stuck with him, and I don't know if they can get anything close to equal value for Deng in trade.  Of course, that's assuming they can sign him to an extension.  They'd be fools to let him walk, and they'd be fools to overpay him.  That's the predicament their in.  So for now, I'll just list the players that I would try to keep at all costs:

The Absolute Keepers
<crickets>

Ok, that didn't go so well.  Let's try a new list:

The Guys Probably Worth Keeping
Deng - He may have hit his ceiling, but he's an inoffensive chap that might still have some upside.
Sefolosha - Lots of upside still, seems to play hard.
Noah - High energy dude.  Fun to watch, for the most part.  Also, a bit of a lunatic.

The Guys They're Stuck With but at Least Provide Value
Hughes - despite his honest quotes last week about preferring playing time on lousy teams to not contributing on a good team.  That's not a very Jordan-like statement, but at least he's being honest and he's a legitimately good player.  Not great, not worth the massive contract, but...good.
Gooden - He's solid enough.  An inside presence on a team that's been sorely lacking.  Plus his neckbeard rocks.

The Guys That Frustrate the Hell out of Me That I Really Want Gone
Hinrich - the captain provides very little value.  He's good on D at times.  Good on O at times.  Almost never good at both on the same night.  And when he's not good, he's awful.
Gordon - I suppose you can keep one of these guys, but I truly wouldn't miss either one.

Guys that I Don't Care if they Stay or Go
Thomas - Pretty much just a bum.
Nocioni - nice player and all off the bench, but he's really just a dime-a-dozen guy, ain't he?  Good in spurts.  If he could be packaged to aquire an every day talent, I'd do it.
Gray - A great white stiff, 3rd Center type.  Can find these guys at 7-11.

Guys that are already Gone Whether I Like it or Not
Duhon - Maybe they should have included him in the Wallace trade and kept Griffin.  Just kidding!

And that's that.  I suspect there are wholesale changes next season, starting at the top.  Boylan's a goner.  He just hasn't been able to stabilize the team, and short of twelve new players on the roster next season, I don't think the current group will ever play hard for him. 

Keep about 5 or 6 guys on the current team, dump everyone else.  Start fresh.  And be careful with that lottery pick. 

Till next time...

Making Lemonade out of Brandon Lloyd

Let's play a little game.  A little player comparison.  (This used to be a Rob Neyer staple back in the day.)  Check out these career numbers for a pair of veteran receivers.

Player A
130 receptions
1889 yards
14.5 yards per catch
13 TDs

Player B
150 receptions
2197 yards
14.6 ypc
13 TDs

Player B is six months older than Player A, but Player A has one more year of NFL experience.  On the whole, you've got to say that Player B is probably a little better, but they've got fairly even stats, right?  Here's some more numbers:

Player A:  1 year, $3 million dollars
Player B:  6 years, $42 million dollars

Those are the contracts that these two guys just signed.  Player A is Brandon Lloyd, who (as Perry predicted) signed with the Bears on Friday.  Player B, of course, is Bernard Berrian, who last week signed the richest free agent deal for a WR in NFL history. 

When you break it down like by career numbers, it's not hard to like the move.  Lloyd is no savior, but he's a competent NFL receiver that's caught a lot of passes and a fair amount of touchdowns in this league. This move, like the Booker signing, makes the team better than it was a week ago.  And they saved a ton of money.  (Money to be spent elsewhere?  Ha!) 

Anyways, this move isn't exactly a slam dunk, as it must be noted that Lloyd is coming off of a miserable two-year stint with the Redskins.  But he's not exactly old yet (at 26) and hopefully reuniting with his old coach (Ron Turner from Illinois) will rejuvenate his career.  Notice anything funny about those last two sentences?  Replace "Lloyd" with "Archuleta" and "Ron Turner" with "Lovie Smith" and you've got a carbon copy of the Bears worst move last offseason.  I'm just saying.  Let's hope this one works out better.

Bear down.

A Conversation about Bears Free Agency

It all started with an email to my cousin, Jim.

MJ: You have any thoughts on Bears free agency?  We got Booker back!!! woo-hoo!

Jim: I'm not buying Super Bowl tickets for next year, but I like the Booker signing.  He should be a solid 60 reception guy for 800 yards or so and a few TD's.  Who knows, maybe he'll even catch fire and be the 2001-2002 Marty Booker and catch 80-90.  Probably not with Grossman/Orton, but he caught 50 last year with the likes of John Beck & Cleo Lemen throwing him the ball, so who knows.  At any rate, a good signing for the money and I'm glad to see him back in a Bears uniform.  Really, when you think about favorite Bears players in our lifetime you've got to put Marty Booker up there.  If you play for the Bears and somehow get 100 receptions, you're okay in my book.
 
The media has been killing the Bears here lately. Yes, their receiving corps is probably the worst in the NFL, even after the Booker signing.  But, consider the alternatives.  Keep Muhammad?  The guy couldn't get any separation last year, was a locker-room cancer, and was due a huge roster bonus.  Up the ante for Berrian and resign him?  No, you don't pay #1 money to a clear #2 out of panic.  That contract he got with the Vikings will be laughed at in a few years...or halfway through next year.  Similarly, overpay for Bryant Johnson, out of panic?  No, you don't kill your team long-term.  Plus, really when was the last time the Bears won a game with offense?  Resigning Grossman?  Again, what's the gamble here?  A 1-year deal for low money is nothing.  What else could they do, Todd Collins, Cleo Lemen, Trent Green? 
 
But the Johnny Come Latelies who haven't seen a Bear game since week 3 last year are now claiming they know what they should be doing.  They still have a lot of holes, but the draft is coming up and I expect them to address the OL and RB situations.  The situation is not as dire as the national guys are claiming.  The defense, when healthy, with Briggs back is still easily top 5, maybe top 3, or maybe even #1.  If they can shore up the O-line and get a stud like Mendenhall...they could easily compete for the playoffs again next year.  Especially with the retirement of....FAVRE! 
 
Who knew.  Quite a shocker.  I'm not convinced it will hold up.  I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls a Jordan and comes back in a year...with the Packers or someone else.  It just doesn't seem like Favre to hang it up...not after the year he had last season.  If it holds, obviously a great thing for the Bears and I think this puts them right back into the thick of things in the North.  GB with Favre next year would be the clear favorite, but it's pretty mucked up now. 

MJ:  I like Marty Booker, and this signing makes the Bears better than they were yesterday (with Bradley & Hester as starters).  However, we're not better than we were in 2007 at the position.  Booker will probably match Moose's numbers, which are OK but nothing to get excited about.  There's still a huge void with the loss of Berrian.  As I said on my blog, no I don't think the Bears should have given Berrian $42 million dollars.  But I do think they should have at least franchised him.  One year at $8 million would have been perfectly acceptable, and would have bridged the gap to next year.  Him and Booker would have been perfect (along with a youngster).
 
The national media has gone a bit overboard, but I largely agree with the premise if I'm not as extreme in my opinion.  Yes, Grossman was the best QB available, and the deal he signed was good.  They still need to draft a QB, though, as it's extremely unlikely that Rex or Kyle is a long-term solution.  I'd say there's a 1 in 5 chance that either guy starts a game for the Bears in 2009.

The holes on the offensive line concern me most, and you can't just go into the draft thinking you can draft 2 starters.  Maybe one.  Maybe.  And I think you've gone batshit crazy with this line:
 
The defense, when healthy, with Briggs back is still easily top 5, maybe top 3, or maybe even #1.
 
What are you smoking?  They were #25 last year.  25!!!!  Yes, they'll get Mike Brown back (for maybe even a full game this year.)  They'll get Dusty Dvoracek back (maybe even for TWO games!)  And Urlacher might be a little better, if he can fully recover from his injuries, that is.  But there's still a massive hole at DT next to Harris (who himself needs to recover), and they've done nothing yet to improve the secondary.  I just don't know how you can say with any confidence that they'll be top 10, let alone even hint at top 5.  They were awful last year, and they've done nothing to get better.  They simply re-signed the best guy on the team that they ranked #25 with.  That's not a plus so much as it's avoiding a potential minus.
 
I'm not ready to give up on the season yet, as we still need to see what they end up doing in the draft.  But as it stands now, they are not a playoff team by any stretch of the imagination.  8-8, if they play their cards right.  This could change with a stud left tackle and top-tier runningback.  Then maybe 10-6 (with a lot of luck). 
 
As of this writing, I'd say the Bears should draft a left tackle first, then focus on defense with the rest of the draft.  Just go all out and improve the D, then try to win games 13-10 all year, 2005-style.  Might as well try to get one side of the ball dominant again, because there's no magic bullet that will put the offense into the top 20 at this point.

Jim: Franchising Berrian?  I guess they thought what would be the point to pay him a high salary for just one year, only to lose him to the open market in 2009.  The Briggs situation was different.  They thought they had a Super Bowl team last year and were going for broke.  Berrian was not going to be a difference maker this year...or any year for that matter.  
 
Yes, the defense was awful last year, but look at all the injuries:
 
Brown - season
Dvoracek - season
Walker - multiple games
Adams - multiple games
Briggs - multiple games
Urlacher - banged up all year
Harris - banged up all year
Tillman - mutliple games
Vasher - basically season
Payne - basically season
 
That's a lot of games and a lot of guys.  They were down to #3 or #4 on the depth chart at multiple positions.  They were signing guys off the street by year-end.  It wasn't just Mike Brown.  Remember I did say "when healthy." Sure, it is kind of like saying, when the Cubs are good, they're good.  But, they were a legit top 3 defense from 2005 through 2006 and they still have every core player from those defenses.  All they need is health and they'll be back.  And, I don't see what you mean by Urlacher could be "a little better."  The last 5 games of the season were some of the best football I've ever seen him play.  He's fine.   
 
If they can have a good draft and make a few more second tier acquisitions, with a last place schedule, they can easily get back to 10-6 and take this division. 

MJ: Ok, let's play this game: 

Brown - can't count on at all
Dvoracek - probably shouldn't count on at all
Walker - already gone
Adams - barely adequate backup, far from a difference maker
Briggs - should be same as last year, which is great (he only missed meaningless games so his injury was a non-factor)
Urlacher - should be better, if latest surgery is as minor as Bears are saying
Harris - should be better, if latest injury is as minor as Bears are saying
Tillman - missed one game early but otherwise was completely healthy until the very end of the season, which was meaningless.
Vasher - should be a legit improvement
Payne - could be an improvement over Archuleta/Manning, but we don't know for sure.

So really, there's only one guy that you can count on who will definitely be improved, and that's Vasher.  And then a few people we're crossing our fingers on.  (Urlacher, Harris, Brown, Dvoracek, Payne)  And that's it.  It's still early, but as of now they've added nobody. 

IF Urlacher, Harris, and Dvoracek are healthy and play up to the level we expect, and Mike Brown plays more than 20 minutes next season, the defense should be marginally better.  To paraphrase Jules Winfield, that's a big motherf-ckin IF.

Jim:  There are lots of questions, sure.  That will happen coming off a 7-9 campaign where nearly every defensive starter missed "some" time due to injury.  But, "if" they can stay healthy, we've seen what they can do.  They can be dominating.  Don't forget the tactical errors by Lovie last year too.  Those certainly didn't do any help.  Once he started A. Brown & McGowan, the D tightened things up.  After Archuleta was relegated to special teams and he stopped moving D. Manning all over, things were much better.  Still not 2005 or 2006 level, but better.  They have pro bowl talent at every level of the defense.  That's something not many teams can say. 

Mike:  Ok, "if" they have a tremendous amount of luck with injuries and both Urlacher and Harris prove to be fully recovered, the defense could be a top 5 unit again.  Personally I'd rather not rely on so many "ifs". 
 
It's amazing how positive you are considering all of your rants against Lovie and Jerry last fall.  Do you remember how negative you were?  They've done nothing to improve the team.  Thus far they've downgraded some positions while they've treaded water in others.  That doesn't inspire much confidence coming off a 7-9.

Jim:  It's not so much optimism, but just the acknowledgement that who the hell knows what will happen in the NFL from year to year, especially the NFC.  The Favre retirement only further muddies the waters.  If we were talking about the Falcons, that would be one thing.  But, we're talking about a team that went a combined 26-10 just 2-3 years ago.  They went 7-9 last year with an injury riddled roster and one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.  Bad, but not Miami Dolphins bad. 
 
I really haven't said anything about Lovie contrary to what I was saying towards the end of last season.  I'm still not a big fan, but after watching this year's playoffs I realized that it could be worse.  Look at McCarthy with GB.  He essentially lost the NFC championship game for GB.  Phillips has never won a playoff game.  Tomlin was overmatched in his first playoff game.  Shit, you could even say Bellichick failed to adjust in the Super Bowl.  I maybe was a little hard on him, but I'll still be calling for change if 2008 goes sour.
 
I don't recall ever really ripping on Angelo.  I think he's been a fine GM.  His drafts have been for the most part solid.  He's built a defense, as I've said, that when healthy has probably more great players on it from top to bottom than any in the NFL.  And, we rip on him for offense, but he did rebuild potentially the worst offense in NFL history in 2004 (one that he built) and made them good enough to reach the Super Bowl just two years later.  He has to do it again now.  He made some mistakes last off-season with the trade of Jones and some of the bums he picked up, but he's mostly been a success. 
 
The big point I was trying to make was the decisions they've made this off-season have really not been bad considering the alternatives.  The same thing happens ever year.  A few teams make big splashes in free agency, the media touts them as the "winners" and they go on to do nothing and it actually hurts the team long-term. 

MJ:  Free Agency does have winners and losers, though, and right now the Bears are losers.  You can't put a whole lot of stock in today's evaluation, of course, just like draft day grades are largely crap.  But by week 8 this year we'll know who really did well in free agency or not.  It's pretty easy to grade a veteran free agent acquisition.  We knew right away last year that the Archuleta signing was a bust.
 
I mostly agree with you that some of the alternatives were by and large garbage.  But basically, had the Bears signed Faneca and franchised Berrian (in addition to the Briggs signing), I'd have zero problems with the offseason to date.  But the line is a black hole right now, and I'm not uber-confident in Mark Bradley or Devin Hester as starters.  And neither position is likely to be filled adequately through the 2008 draft.
 
And something to note: Practically the entire starting offense of the 2006 NFC Champion Bears was acquired through free agency.  Only Grossman, Berrian, and Kreutz were drafted. 

But I guess we'll find out how we really did in free agency in about six months.

What will Bears fans remember about Brett Favre?

Bears fans have always had a love-hate relationship with Brett Favre, who retired Tuesday after a mostly brilliant 17-year career.  He is our nemesis, but we can't help but respect and admire him.  That's basically it in a nutshell. 

Below are the most memorable Brett Favre moments from a Bears fan's perspective.  Not all of these moments involve the Bears, but they're the stories I will tell my kids when they ask about the legendary Brett Favre.  In chronological order...

1. October 31, 1994
   The Bears and Packers split the first four matchups of the Brett Favre era (92-93), though it was clear that the kid was coming on strong.  We didn't know that he would go on to be one of the all-time greats, of course, but it appeared the new guy might be even better than Don Majkowski.  On this miserable Halloween night, a night when the Bears finally retired the jerseys of Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus, the Packers opened a can of whip-ass on the Bears by a score of 33-6.  Six short weeks later, they did it again by a score of 40-3 and the darkest era of the Bears-Packers rivalry was under way. 
   
2. September 11 and November 12, 1995
   In the midst of a 10-game winning streak against the Bears, in 1995 Favre practically earned the first of his 3 MVP awards against the Bears alone.  This was the one season in Bears history where they had some semblance of a passing game, yet they didn't even make the playoffs thanks in part to Favre winning a pair of shootouts over Dave Wannstedt and Erik Kramer.  The first game was highlighted by a 99-yard TD pass to Robert Brooks, while the second merely featured a career-high five TD tosses. 
   
3. January 26, 1997
   Favre won his first (and only) Super Bowl over the Patriots, cementing his status as the world's best active QB.  It was a long decade for the Bears, and the Packers winning the Super Bowl made it even worse.  Happily, the Packers followed this up with a loss in the following Super Bowl to John Elway and the Broncos, who were 14-point underdogs.  The Packers were so cocky going into that game, Favre was even talking about throwing a TD pass left-handed.  Seeing Terrell Davis shut the Packers up was like a mini ray of sunshine in a cold winter for Bears fans.
   
4. November 7, 1999
   "The Payton Game."  The Bears blocked a last second field goal and beat Favre and the Packers just a few days after Walter Payton's tragic early death.  It was the first time they beat the Packers since 1993, and the 10-game losing streak was over.
    
5. January 20, 2002
   Favre threw six interceptions in a playoff game against St. Louis, a game the Packers lost 45-17.  This is the first truly horrific game the gunslinger had on the big stage, and Bears fans revere this moment like they do the '85 season.   
   
6. December 22, 2003
   The game Favre won after his father died.  National TV, Madden and Michaels over-the-top fawning, the whole nine yards.  Nothing against Favre, of course, as his efforts were indeed quite stupendous.  But this game was simply unwatchable for Bears fans.
   
7. September 19, 2004
   The first game of the Lovie Smith era.  Mike Brown returned a fumble 90 yards as the Bears won, 21-10.  You can say a lot of things about Lovie Smith, but he's beaten Brett Favre and the Packers more than the previous two coaches combined.  His 6-2 record against Green Bay is highlighted by the 26-0 shutout at Lambeau on opening day, 2006.
   
8. January 2, 2005
   "The Craig Nall Game."  After Favre had a typical, stellar first half (9-13, 196 yards, 2 TDs), the Bears finally got to Favre and knocked him out for the rest of the game.  Craig Nall came in and, of course, picked up where Favre left off as the Bears lost, 31-17.  Can't even beat the Packers when iron man's on the bench.
   
9. December 31, 2006
   The Bears, having already locked up home field advantage in the playoffs, had nothing to play for; and Rex Grossman spent more time coordinating his New Year's Eve party than studying the playbook.  So Favre and the Packers came out and embarrassed the Bears with a 26-7 butt-kicking.  After this game, Favre looked like he was about to pack it in right then and there.  With tears in his eyes, I thought he was a goner. Surprisingly, he came back for 2007 and it started to look like he would never retire.
   
10. December 23, 2007
    In a game Favre described as the "worst conditions I've ever played in," the Bears, with nothing to play for, kept the Packers from getting home field advantage in the playoffs.  Favre tossed a horrible interception right to Urlacher, and the 17-year nightmare was over. 

Good luck, Brett.  I can't say that I'll miss you. 

Thoughts on Spring Training Thoughts

The Cubs have finally started playing some baseball this year, and I caught my first glimpse of them Saturday and Sunday.  Unlike most people, I just don't get that excited by "pitchers and catchers."  It'd be great if I were sitting on some metal bleachers in sunny Arizona with a beer in my hand, watching Dempster and Lieber engage in some long toss.  But when it's 20 degrees, and I gotta look at mounds of brown slush as I navigate the concrete jungle to sit in a cubicle all day, well, let's just say I need some "real audio" before I can truly get excited.

Until the games start, all you have is other people's impressions of spring training.  That and a whole lot of paint by numbers player profiles that practically write themselves every spring.  "The Comeback Player," "The AA-baller's first experience," "The Guy coming off Injury," "The Disrespected Guy with Something to Prove," "The Hot New Free Agent."  Yawn. 

Nevertheless, here's what I've heard.

• Peter Gammons has said on numerous occasions that Kerry Wood is the most impressive thing he's seen this preseason.  Mike & Mike couldn't keep from chuckling on the radio the other day.  Kerry Wood?  Don't get me wrong, I'd love if Kerry came back and became a dominant closer.  I'll just believe it when I see it.  I think Howry's going to start off with the job before giving way to Marmol.  I really like having Marmol to work those high leverage situations in the 6th and 7th, but a slam-the-door closer is hard to find. 
• Cubs need a lefty in the pen to help out Scott Eyre.  Neil Cotts of all people was starting to get some love from the press, but I watched him today and he was awful.  I guess throwing to live batters is tougher than throwing AAA-BP.  Hendry's probably got a trade in the works.  Murton doesn't have a spot, and neither does Eric Patterson really.  Both have value and either one could probably fetch a solid lefty reliever. 
• Speaking of trades, the Brian Roberts deal is still simmering on the back burner.  For the love of God, what is the hold up?  Bedard was dealt weeks ago, and that was supposedly the blocker.  I'm perfectly fine and happy with DeRosa starting every day, but Roberts would be a real nice addition to the team.  Get. It. Done.  Or move on.
• Nice to see Soriano get his nagging injury out of the way early in ST this year.  Maybe the lingering effects of this broken finger will only hamper him in April this season. 
• Nice to see Pie hitting the ball with authority this spring.  I'd love nothing more than to see him hit .350 this spring and build that confidence back up going into April.  He was totally shot at the end of last season, and he needs a strong rebound before the fans start going Corey Patterson on him.
• Still waiting to see Fukudome unleash that arm.  The videos on youtube have me salivating.

And that's about it.  Till next time...

Briggs is Back, Berrian Bolts

The Bears weren't shut out!  The Bears weren't shut out!  After an em-bear-assing* start to the 2008 free agency period, a ray of light came in the form of a text message from Perry on Saturday night. 

Perry: "Briggs just signed!!" 

MJ: "With the Bears?"

Perry: "Yes!!"

MJ: "Panic move after losing Bernard."

I'm pretty excited by the Briggs signing.  He's a legitimately great player, and he's worth the money he's getting.  It's really unbelievable that he's back on the Bears after last year's fiasco. But I guess the market just wasn't there for a 3-time pro bowler.  "Mr. Rosenhaus, what have you done for your client other than send him back home with his tail between his legs?"  "Next question!"

Speaking of who's worth the money, how about that Berrian contract?  Berrian's a good player, and I wish the Bears would have kept him, but I can understand Jerry not wanting to pay him $42 million dollars.  He's simply not in that class of receiver.  (I know T.O., and you, sir, are no T.O.)  However, I still think Jerry screwed up.  There's two things he could have done that would have kept Bernard in navy and orange:

• Given him a decent contract offer after the 2006 season.  Three years, 18 mil, 6 mil guaranteed would have done it.  Not a doubt in my mind.  And he's worth that sort of scratch.
• At the very least franchise him.  Players hate it, but a) it worked for Briggs, and b) the cupboard is Bear* at wideout.  One year of the solid Berrian for $8 million and you'd at least buy some time to integrate young talent.

Right now, you're looking at a one-two punch of Mark Bradley and Devin Hester at wide receiver.  I've always kind of liked Bradley, and who doesn't love Devin returning kicks?  But that, my friends, is the worst starting receiver duo in my lifetime.  And I'm getting old.  They're going to sign someone else, no doubt.  All the mediocre-to-good guys have signed, though.  The Bears are now forced to choose between has-beens and never-weres.  Cross your fingers and hope you get lucky.  Unless they go after Moss, that is.

I hate the idea of Randy Moss in a Bears uniform.  No doubt, he's awesome when in the perfect system and properly motivated, but perfect system the Bears are not.  And we already saw what Moss does in a lousy situation like Oakland last year. But at this point, I'm almost willing to overlook all of that.  As it stands now, this team is doomed by its lack of talent on offense.  It doesn't matter who's throwing the ball, because nobody's gonna be blocking and nobody will be there to catch it.  Only an acquisition like Moss might save this offense from setting records in futility this season.  Might as well go for it.

Bear down.  On Moss.

* I had to use these old newspaper headline standbys at some point, right?  Figured I'd knock them both out in one post.