Cubs scuffling, but I'm not worried
The Cubs just lost 2 of 3 to the Cardinals, 7 of their last 10 overall, and now sit 1.5 games out of first in the NL Central. A few of those losses were excruciating, see Thursday and Friday, but really stretches like this hit every good team. With 162 games, its bound to happen. And there is some good news to note. The Cubs still have not lost three games in a row all season. Say what you will, but avoiding those 5, 6 game losing streaks is what sets the contenders apart from the pretenders.
Even after the recent slippage, the Cubs record stands at 18-13, a .581 winning percentage that (should they maintain it) will easily win the NL Central this year. And with a three-game trip to Cincy on the docket, imagining the next winning streak isn't hard. So I'm not worried. In fact, I'm still pretty confident that this team should cruise to the playoffs. Why? Because the pitching has, for the most part, fallen way short of expectations. If the pitchers rebound at all, and the batters continue to keep the offense in the top 5, the postseason is a given. In fact, let's break down the players into three categories - who's doing better than expected, who's doing what we expected, and who's doing worse than we expected. Think of this list as a ranking of 1-25 with the guys at the top exceeding expectations the most while the guys at the bottom living up to expectations the least.
Exceeding Expectations
Ryan Dempster
Ronny Cedeno
Kosuke Fukudome
Ryan Theriot
Mike Fontenot
Geovanny Soto
Meeting Expectations
Derrek Lee
Carlos Zambrano
Carlos Marmol
Aramis Ramirez
Mark DeRosa
Reed Johnson
Jon Lieber
Sean Marshall
Henry Blanco
Jason Marquis - yes, I expected that he'd mostly suck.
Falling Short of Expectations
Ted Lilly - starting to turn it around
Felix Pie
Kevin Hart
Mike Weurtz
Kerry Wood
Daryle Ward
Bob Howry
Alfonso Soriano
Rich Hill
Now, I fully expect some of these guys to be shifted around to different lists as the season wears on. I don't expect Cedeno to end up hitting .391 or Dempster to go 24-0, for example, and I don't expect Soriano to hit .169 for much longer either. But when you look at how the players break down, there haven't really been a lot of breakouts. Other than the aforementioned Cedeno (a part-time player) and Dempster, none of the other guys I listed have been that much better than we expected. But you look down at that last list, and there's a number of guys who have really fallen apart. Soriano, Hill and Howry head that list. I fully expect all three of those guys to rebound fast and be back to normal by June 1st. It will be harder for Hill to rebound, being in the minors and all, but hopefully he can get his mechanics straight as he simply looked awful the other night. As did Soriano.
As Bob Brenly noted during the broadcast, again and again, Soriano just didn't look right out there and he should have taken a quick rehab assignment. Mis-judging fly balls, swinging at everything. Friday night was absolutely brutal, until the homer of course.
But back to my main point, if I even have one that is. The Cubs, despite poor play from all those guys I listed, are sitting pretty. And there hasn't really been a whole lot of breakouts either (like the Cardinals have had) which would suggest an upcoming fall. If they can get the last two spots in the rotation going, along with the bullpen and Soriano, this team will waltz into the playoffs. And with Lieber being promoted to the rotation and Gallagher & Marshall licking their chops to replace Marquis, I'm not worried about the rotation at all. And I'm certainly not worried about Howry and Soriano. Wood, on the other hand...