Playoffs!? How the Chicago teams stack up
As much as I enjoy interleague play, and the Cubs-Sox series in particular, I'm happy its over. After the uber-intense crosstown classic, it's kind of nice to get back to the "normal grind" of the regular season. Where you don't live and die with every single pitch, and the ramifications of a single loss don't seem nearly as high. But before the Cubs-Sox series is too far in our rear view mirror, I want to look at how the Chicago teams stack up with the postseason in mind. I'm going to look at two categories in particular: "Prospects for the Playoffs", and "Prospects for Winning it All."
Prospects for the Playoffs
The Cubs have only a 2.5 game lead as of this writing, but the difference in talent between the Cubs and Cards seems much wider than that. The Cardinals have simply been winning with smoke and mirrors, that's all there is to it. I mean, who the hell is in their rotation? And who the hell is Ryan Ludwick? This team is littered with nobodies playing way over their head. The Cubs, on the other hand, have the best run differential in baseball -- despite dealing with numerous injuries themselves. You can't even really say that anyone on the Cubs is playing over their heads, either, except Dempster and maybe Theriot to a degree. But really Dempster just makes up for the massive head case and black hole that is Rich Hill. Cubs get healthy and stay healthy, they should be able to easily take the division. I'm honestly more worried about the underachieving Brewers and who they might acquire more than the Cardinals.
The South Sider's lead is roughly the same as the Cubs, but the teams breathing down their neck are better than the Cardinals and Brewers. Many people predicted the Tigers to win 100 games this year, and despite the rough start they're still only 6.5 out. Their pitching has been mostly sub par, but they can outslug anybody - and that asset can be ridden into October. The Twins, much like the Cardinals, are simply winning with smart baseball. Since Gardenhire took over, they've never really been out of any race. They just find ways to win. The Sox have a good team. Good hitting, good starting pitching, good bullpen. Solid, top to bottom. Not a lot of depth, though. Who would step in if a starting pitcher or two went down? They've been very lucky with injuries. (luckiest team in the league, according to Baseball Prospectus.) The only guy they were counting on that's missed any time is Konerko. So all in all I'd say the Sox have a tougher road to the postseason than the Cubs. Tougher competition, plus a general lack of depth should anyone go down.
Prospects for Winning it All
Here's where the teams really differ. The Cubs have a balanced, deep team and a great offense, but they simply don't have a championship caliber rotation. Good enough to win the division, for sure. But good enough to be the favorites in a short series against teams like Arizona and Philly? (let alone any contender in the AL) No. Zambrano can hang with anybody, but Dempster, Lilly, etc are simply too streaky for me to have anything more than a passing level of confidence in them. The bullpen isn't all that deep either, beyond the fragile Wood and the slightly-off Marmol. Sure, anything could happen in the playoffs - see St. Louis in 2006. But the Cubs would not be the favorites by any stretch of the imagination - that is unless they acquire Sabathia. (They get CC, and I reserve my Series tickets now.)
The Sox, on the other hand, are built for October. Strong rotation (with old man Contreras likely the odd man out), very good looking bullpen. Pitching always prevails in October. The Sox have a hard time scoring runs when they aren't homering, but all in all you can't complain too much about the offense. Its good enough to win it all with. So yeah, if the Sox make the postseason, I think their odds of winning it all would be better than a CC-less Cubs.
But it's all a crapshoot anyways, right? Right?