Further thoughts on "The Trade" and a look at the rotation
The more I think about the Rich Harden deal, the more I like it. What really settled it for me was the Oakland reaction. I surveyed some A's blogs and the San Fran papers and I'd say the reaction is almost universal. Probably 85% of A's fans hated the move. Oddly enough, most of them hated the move because Gaudin was included. Plus there's a high level of dissatisfaction for the prospects they got in return along with the fact that Billy Beane is more or less giving up on the season. I can't help but agree with them. Gallagher looks good. Possibly a #2 starter but more likely a #3 or #4. Certainly not an ace.
There's not much short term risk for the Cubs. The worst case scenario for the Cubs is Harden getting hurt and making only two starts this year. Gaudin in 2008 is the equivalent of Gallagher in 2008, so there's no immediate loss there. I suppose it would hurt, too, if Soriano and Fukudome land on the DL at the same time (and thus Murton's loss would be felt). But really, in the short term, that's the only potential negative. If the Cubs miss the playoffs and Gallagher eventually becomes the next Dan Haren, then this trade will be considered a loss. But the reward is just so massive, and it's gotta be considered a win for the Cubs unless Harden's already hurt. (And to tell you the truth, that's in the back of my mind. Why else would the Cubs be able to get him for so little? What's the catch?)
Now it's time to think about the rotation. If I had to guess, I'd say Marshall will go to AAA and Marquis will stay in the rotation. However, I heard Hendry was on the radio yesterday talking about the rotation, and he mentioned Marshall but not Marquis. Interesting. That, of course, is what I would prefer to see but I would have guessed that Marquis' contract would have prevented that.
They can't put Marquis in the pen because they already have a long reliever. They can't demote him, and he's paid too much to sit around and do nothing as insurance. (Don't need it anyways with Gaudin and Lieber around)
He's going to be awfully hard to trade because he's owed 13 million dollars. He only made 5 mil last year, and 6 mil this year, but next year he's scheduled to make 10 million. Who the hell is going to pay Marquis 10 million? (incidentally, a lot of Cubs contracts are severely backloaded like that. It's Hendry's price to pay for turning around the team quickly.) I guess they can cut him, but he's gotta be serviceable enough for somebody to roll the dice in a trade. The Cubs will just have to pick up a bad contract in return and/or send a lot of money with Marquis. I bet they'd have to eat 6 or 7 million to dump Jason. If anyone can do it, Hendry can. He found takers for Todd Hundley, Sammy Sosa, and Michael Barrett, and I never thought he'd be able to move any of those guys.
I anxiously await Hendry's next move.