Final Thoughts on Chicago Sports

Playoff talk and a Cubs-Dodgers NLDS Preview

I went to the Cubs Rally today in Daley Plaza, and I couldn't be more excited that the playoffs are finally starting.  Unlike the last few times the Cubs have made the playoffs, the Cubs are the universal pick to win their first series (against the Dodgers.)  Best record in the NL, best run differential in baseball, best OBP, best BA, 2nd best ERA, most strikeouts...  It's clear that the Cubs are the best team in the NL.  But oh, there's this:

"My s*** doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f****** luck." - A's GM Billy Beane

The playoffs are a complete crapshoot.  What happened over the last six months means precisely d*ck once the playoffs start.  Eight teams.  First one to win 11 games are the champs.  You have a slight advantage with better players, of course.  Better pitching especially.  But the beauty of baseball is any team can sweep any team.  Exhibit A thru Q in this argument is the 2006 Cardinals.  Obviously NOT the best team in baseball; probably not even in the top 8 teams.  But they snuck in and got hot in October and that's all there is to it. 

The best way to determine the best team in baseball is to go back to the way things were in the 1960s.  Take the best team from the AL and the best team from the NL and have them meet in the World Series.  The best teams are the teams with the best record over a 162 game season.  Top two teams meet, and you'll never have an un-worthy champion.  Well, let me rephrase.  Every team that wins the World Series deserves their trophy.  I guess I'm just re-iterating the fact that the best team doesn't always win.  In fact, since the wild card started in 1995, the team with the best record in baseball won the World Series exactly once.  The 1998 Yankees.  A better record doesn't even guarantee that you'll win a single series.  Since 1995, in all matchups, the team with the better record won only 49% of the time.  The team with the better run differential won 56% of the time.  So yeah, crapshoot.  (I got these numbers from Baseball Prospectus)

Do I want to go back to the way it was in the old days?  Heck, no.  Without the new format, this would be the first Cubs postseason appearance since 1989.  No game 163 in 1998, no Bartman in 2003, no division series sweep in 2007.  They barely would have contended into September during any of those seasons.  So I like the new format.  It gives fans across the country a rooting interest in baseball into October.  And the more times you make it to the show, the more chances you have to win it all.

Anyways, let's talk about this series.  The Dodgers have a pretty good team.  They finished the season only a handful of games over .500, but that doesn't tell the true story of their season.   Once they acquired Manny and got stooges Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones out of the lineup, they went on an absolute tear.  Their starting pitching really stepped up, their young hitters started to produce more consistently, and their bullpen solidified.  They may have only won 84 games, but they've been playing like a 95-win team since the All-Star break.  So despite the Cubs being "better across the board", this series is closer than it looks. 

I think its all going to come down to the Cubs starting pitching.  If the Cubs starters can throw seven innings, this series should be won by the Cubs.  After that, Marmol is lights out and Wood is solid enough.  I'm pretty sure that Dempster and Lilly are up to the task of throwing seven innings.  Harden?  Usually not but he's clearly got ace talent and is certainly capable.  Then there's Big Z.  Who knows what the Cubs will get out of him.  A "former Cub" told Tim Kurkijan that Biz Z freaks out in big games, that he can't even handle the pressure of Opening Day.  I'm curious as to who this former Cub is.  Pre-2007, this was a fair assessment.  Since then, he's been great in the spotlight.  Playoffs last year, 6 shutout innings (before being foolishly lifted by Lou.)  Opening Day this year, stellar matchup with Ben Sheets.  All-Star game, two scoreless innings.  First start in September after arm problems and the Cubs had been scuffling - no-hitter.  Z doesn't struggle in big games - he struggles in less-meaningful ones.  If Z's on, this Series will be done in four.

As for the Dodgers pitching, it's been really good of late, but on the whole I don't think any of these guys is markedly better than Ted Lilly.  They've got decent numbers...in a pitcher's park....in a lousy division.  They certainly have a deeper bullpen, though, and that's where the Cubs scare me most.  They've got nothin' after Marmol and Wood.  I can't believe Howry made the postseason roster.  He's f*cking awful.  Two out of every three appearances, he gives up run.  Every appearance, he gets hit hard.  He pitches, Cubs lose that game.  Mark it down.  I'd have gone with Weurtz, who has at least had three or four good outings this month.  I wouldn't exactly be excited about seeing Weurtz pitch, but I at least would have a shred of hope that he might not give up three runs. 

Anyways, back to the happy thoughts.  Home field advantage is huge for the Cubs.  The wind will probably be blowing in, which unlike years past has become a real advantage for the Cubs.  They're far more patient than the Dusty years, and they keep pitchers in the stretch and working hard all day.  Eventually, someone will come through with a big hit.  That's the Cubs mantra and it will serve them right here.  Cubs in 4.

P.S. Congrats to the Sox.  I'm sincerely excited to see to Chicago baseball teams play in October.  I can't even fathom a World Series matchup.

Big Win for Bears over Philly

Whew!!!  Thanks to an impressive goal line stand, the Bears held on and beat the Eagles 24-20 at Soldier Field tonight.  This season is turning into the bizarro of a typical Bears season.  Play well at noon, play like crap in prime time.  This year they're 2-0 on NBC and 0-2 on FOX.  Here's some quick observations...

• Kyle Orton and the passing game looked pretty damn good in the first half.  They came out with the no huddle, and three strikes later they were up seven-zip.  Orton was spreading the ball around as Olsen, Booker, Hester and Lloyd all got in on the action.  Sharp throws, smart decisions.  Really, Orton looked about as well as he could look with three TDs and minimal mistakes.  Then, there was halftime.
• I don't know what happened, but it looked like Bad Rex had Orton's jersey on in the second half.  Fumbles, stupid picks, no sustained drives...Kyle's second half rating was a bluto-esque 0.0.  If that's not Grossman, I don't know what is.  But just like 2006, thankfully the defense saved the day.
• Oh, and Forte.  HUGE run at the end of the game.  His final stat line wasn't that impressive at first blush, but he did end up with 85 all purpose yards.  Not bad considering the line was playing olé with the tough Philly defense.  (Which, I should point out, is a credit to Orton for surviving.  I mean, Philly absolutely battered Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh last week and held them without a TD.  Orton led them to three.  I'm just saying.)
• As for the defense, they weren't perfect but they obviously came up big when it counted.  Alex Brown and Lance Briggs were probably the players of the game, but the "horse trailer" selection of the entire unit was a pretty astute choice.  Urlacher, Hillenmeyer, Idonije, Mike Brown, Payne, Dvoracek....everybody contributed.  Everybody made plays.  Nobody made a stupid penalty.
• The Eagles clearly missed Brian Westbrook.  Would a healthy Westbrook have made a difference?  Probably, but I'm not complaining.  Desean Jackson is a pretty amazing (but raw) talent on Philly as well.  Once he figures things out, he'll be an elite receiver in this league.
• A couple of potentially big injuries in this one.  Both Tillman and Lloyd left for good with injuries.  If Tillman misses extended time, its pretty clear that Corey Graham and Trumaine McBride are next in line.  With Lloyd, the choices aren't so obvious.  Hester still isn't close to a legit number one receiver.  He did have a nice TD tonight, though he dropped a sure one as well.  Booker looked good on his TD, but again he's old.  With Bradley gone, I think Brandon Rideau might get a promotion from the practice squad this week.

That's pretty much it.  One thing I'd like to say is all this "we should be 4-0" talk (from everybody outside of Lovie) is kind of annoying.  The Bears are deservedly 2-2.  It's not exactly good but its not that bad.  Actually, they're tied for first.  The chance to go 9-7 or 10-6 is still alive.  I'm just happy the season isn't over before the Cubs season.  Till next time...

BEAR DOWN

Baseball, Attendance and the Economy

You want to know what I'm starting to get sick of?  Big-city media criticizing towns for not selling out their games during the stretch run.  Last week, Mike & Mike were ragging on the Tampa Bay fans for not selling out their stadium for the Boston series; and then yesterday Mac, Jurko & Harry were criticizing Twins fans for leaving 10,000 seats empty (in their 50,000 seat football stadium) for the crucial Twins-White Sox series this week.  Ron Gardenhire, the Twins manager, cut Minnesotans some slack by saying it was a school night and the 40k in attendance did their job, etc.  The Rays don't have any defenders, or fans, so I'll pick up their cause.  They've been absolute garbage for ten years, fans want to see if they're for real, most teams don't experience their attendance boost until the year AFTER doing well, most of the local citizens are seniors (and transplants at that) and not game-attending types.  (Is that enough reasons or should I continue?) 

Anyways, want to know why else people aren't going to games?  It's the economy, stupid.  The world is going to hell in a handbasket, and you're wondering why people don't want to spend a few hundred dollars to take their family of four to a baseball game?  Think about it.  Forget recession, we're teetering on the brink of a full-blown depression.  Don't think for a moment that its not affecting people's "entertainment" budgets. 

Just look at the cost of tickets.  I'm not poor, but I'm not even close to being considered rich.  I've had the luxury of throwing 600 or 800 dollars per year at Cubs games the last few years, but next year I don't even think I'll have that much.  Would I love to go to a playoff game or two (or heaven forbid a World Series)?  Absolutely.  But I can't give up my kid's college education to do it.  The Cubs held a lottery for the right to buy NLDS tickets, and I of course didn't win.  Not unexpected to say the least.  Anyways, the day after they sold out, cubs.com sent me an email telling me that there are still plenty of great seats available on stubhub.  Awesome!  How much?  Oh.  Nevermind.  Standing room only is $115 a pop.  Average seats are $300-400.  Good seats are a grand.  Great seats?  Try $3000.  And that's for game one.  Imagine how much World Series tickets will cost.  Actually, don't imagine.  Somebody is selling row 9 behind the dugout for World Series game 3 for, get this, $32,000.  Are you freaking kidding me?  That's not much for the John Cusacks or Mark Cubans of the world, but I think it would disintegrate my bank.  Take the value of both my cars put together and double it.  Now I'm within five grand of that 32 G.

And this is just the beginning.  A year from now, we might look back at this conversation and laugh.  With all this going on, you were worried about the cost of baseball tickets?  Seems rather petty and insignificant, doesn't it?  But if a middle class fan can't buy tickets and the big money wall street types have all gone bankrupt, who's going to go to the games?  How are the Cubs going to pay Aramis Ramirez his $15 million?  Baseball might have to close shop.  (Actually, if we could somehow re-elect Bush for a third term, you KNOW that baseball would never go away.  Here, have $700 billion!  On second thought, maybe not.)

Ugh, this post has taken a wrong and ugly turn and I really didn't want to go there.  I just started typing and, well.... Anyways, this is a baseball blog and sports is supposed to be about escapism.  Something to keep your mind off your problems. 

Let's go, Cubs!

So I guess that Indy upset was a fluke

The Bears felt the crap running down their legs in the fourth quarter for a second week in a row, and it appears that our fears of a lousy 5-11 or mediocre 7-9 season will come to fruition.  On the surface, 1-2 ain't bad and is certainly overcomable.  But they're going to get embarrassed on national TV next week against Philly, and I don't think I can handle John Madden's back-handed compliments that do nothing more than point out how lousy Kyle Orton is for three hours.  I just can't.

Today was not a good football day for me.  Not only did the Bears crap themselves, I lost my Eliminator pick (thanks for showing up, New England) and had Ronnie Brown on my fantasy bench to boot.  He scored 39 points today.  Good thing I didn't pull the "questionable" LDT from my lineup, I might have actually won.  Back to the Bears.

This game was tiring.  I think Bill Simmons said it best on his podcast the other day.  When hearing of the Bears-Tampa matchup, he said "that is a good game that I absolutely do not want to watch one play of."  He was right.  It actually lulled me to sleep early in the third quarter.  I woke up when Orton hit four receivers in a row and the Bears scored a touchdown.  I thought I was dreaming, so I backed it up and re-watched the entire drive again.  No shit!  Orton looked quite competent today, if for only eight minutes or so.  Otherwise, it was the same old Kyle.  Missing receivers and/or making them come to dead stops to get completions.  Before I dreamed up that touchdown, I was actually dreaming of next April's draft.  It's that kind of year.

Elsewhere on offense, the entire unit remains very light on talent.  Forte is the real deal.  He's not a bruiser, he's just a smoothe runner.  Nice cuts, hits the hole, catches the ball, can outrun people.  A professional back.  I'm liking the Lloyd pickup more and more every day, too.  But everyone else on offense pretty much sucked today, especially on the line. 

As for the defense, they certainly can stop the run.  Dusty Dvoracek comes to play every day.  I'll tell you who's been missing in action, though.  Brian Urlacher and Tommie Harris.  These guys are supposed to be the main guys, and they're being severely outplayed by Briggs and Dvoracek, respectively.  Does either of these guys have a single highlight this year?  Urlacher has recovered a pair of fumbles, but falling on the ball isn't exactly a skill.  Harris has been simply taking up space, which is nice but not exactly franchise-worthy.

While falling on the ball may not be a skill, forcing fumbles most definitely is, and you know what's coming next.  Peanut Tillman punched out another one today, though his colossal brain fart in OT pretty much negated all his good work in the first 4.5 quarters.  My dad said, "That was it.  That was the game right there."  And I'm having a hard time arguing with him.

Still, you should never lose to Brian Griese.  Griese's fine, he's ok, he's competent, he's professional, he has nice touch, yada yada.  But he's still a Loser with a capital L.  I can't believe they let him beat them.

Anyways, that's it for now.  This Bears season is already painting a mustache on the Cubs' Mona Lisa, and its not even October yet.

Till next time...

My Top 15 Favorite moments of the 2008 Cubs Season (so far)

Ever watch the TV Show Survivor?  If you haven't, it jumped the shark years ago so there's no point in starting now.  But if you have watched Survivor, I'm going to attempt to re-create a staple from their annual season finale.  The season-reflection segment, except I'm going to try to do it without sitting on the edge of a cliff and staring off into the sunset.  With the Cubs magic number down to two, it's time for a little reflection on what we've seen so far in this 2008 season.  Here's my favorite moments (so far).

1.  March 31: Opening Day, Kosuke Fukudome's game-tying homer in the 9th.  Howry ended up blowing the game in extras, but Fukudome's homer was a coming out party for our Japanese import.  He cooled off considerably the last few months, and Lou has been right to keep him out of the starting lineup lately.  Give him the offseason to regroup and make him the everyday right fielder again next year.

2.  April 25:  Reed Johnson's catch.  Another game the Cubs ultimately lost, but that's not the point.  This catch is the play of the year.  Excellent pickup by Hendry.

3.  April 29: Cubs 19, Milwaukee 5.  Warning: you're going to see a lot of Brewers games on this list.  I don't know what it is about Milwaukee, but since they moved to our division, there's been a half-dozen classic battles every year.  This particular game wasn't especially tight, but I was at Wrigley and had the best seats of my life.  Right behind home plate, five rows up.  Rookie-of-the-Year shoo-in Geovany Soto had a pair of homers and six RBIs in route to the slaughter.  The six-spot in the 8th was just icing on the cake, and the fans went nuts.

4.  May 18:  Cubs complete 8-2 homestand, with Alfonso Soriano's blistering bat to thank.  He won several of these games practically by himself.

5.  May 30: The Cubs score nine unanswered runs against the Rockies, in a miraculous 10-9 comeback.  Mark DeRosa supplied the heroics in route to his career year.  Even on vacation, I had a Dwight Smith flashback during this one. 

6.  June 12: WGN Turn-back-the-clock day.  Jim Edmonds, determined to prove me and the rest of the world wrong, hit a game-tying homer in the 9th.  At this point it seemed the Cubs would never lose at home again.  Also, Len Kasper's tribute to Jack Brickhouse on the home run call was excellent.  

7.  June 23: Cubs Sweep Sox.  While we won't mention what happened on the South Side a week later, it's always a treat to sweep your city rivals.  Aramis Ramirez was on nuclear fire in this series, with a game-tying homer in the 7th followed by a walk-off in the 9th on Friday.

8.  July 9: Cubs acquire Harden.  I was at Wrigley when I got a call from my friend telling me about the trade that announced to the world that the Cubs are for real this year.  They acquired a true "Ace" from Oakland, and all of a sudden they have the best rotation in baseball.  Oh, and they beat up on Dusty Baker's Reds that day, too.  Nice.

9.  July 15: The Cubs have seven representatives at the All-Star game in New York.  Big Z goes two scoreless and Ryan Dempster strikes out the side in the 9th in the midst of his out-of-nowhere season.  He's a legit Cy Young candidate.  (Not the winner, but as of now he's gotta be 2nd or 3rd.) 

10.  July 28: Ted Lilly outduels CC Sabathia in one of the most exciting mid-season games I've ever seen.  This was the start of a four-game sweep over Milwaukee, and the Cubs have never looked back.

11.  August 15: Ward's bomb.  I still can't believe it.  August was a great month for the Cubs. 

12.  September 14: Zambrano's No-Hitter.  Just what the doctor ordered.  Z's healthy; Astros are cooled off; Slump: over. 

13.  September 16:  Sabathia vs. Cubs, round 2.  The Cubs didn't need this one as bad as Milwaukee did, but nevertheless this was another  awesome game that I saw in person.   Carlos Marmol was his usual wicked-good self, and Kerry Wood matched up with the mammoth-homering Prince Fielder for an epic at-bat in the top of the 9th.  Cubs Win!  Sabathia gets first loss.  Go, Cubs, Go!  Magic Number down to 4.

14.  September 18:  Today's comeback vs. Milwaukee.  Down 6-2 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, the Cubs staged a remarkable comeback - highlighted by Soto's 3-run game-tying bomb.  Derrek Lee then followed with the game-winning knock in the 12th.  It sure would be nice if he heated up for the playoffs.  Magic Number?  2.

15.   September 20:  When they clinched the division, it sealed this team's fate as the best Cubs team of my lifetime.  Will they win it all?  Who knows, but they have as good a shot as anybody and so far its been one hell of a ride.   

ZambraNo-No! Big Z no-hits Astros

Today has been the exact opposite of last Sunday.  Last week, the Cubs blew a miserable game to Cincinnati in the 9th inning before the Bears had a shocking upset at night over the Colts (and thus rescuing my day).  Today, the Bears blew a lead and lost to the Panthers, and then Big Z goes and throws a no-no tonight against Houston -- in Milwaukee of all places.  Couple that with the deluge of unprecedented rain and redacted and you have yourself one heckuva weekend. 

It was the first no-hitter the Cubs have had since Milt Pappas in 1972, and of course the first Cubs one that I've ever seen.  (I've seen the ninth inning of non-Cubs no-nos a few times on ESPN.)  The closest any Cub has been since I've been watching is when Jamie Moyer made it to the 9th hitless in 1986.  I do remember watching that one.  There's been a number of other guys who went 7+ innings through the years, but none got especially close. 

This wasn't some clunky error/walk riddled no-no either.  Nine innings, 0 hits, 1 walk, 10 SOs.  Probably the best Cubs pitching performance I've ever seen live.  (Kerry Wood's 20k game in 1998 was probably better - with the one infield single - but I actually didn't see that one live.  Stupid work got in the way so I had to watch that one on replay later that night.)  Zambrano was masterful.  Full command of his pitches, painting corners, never once in a jam.  I guess his arm is ok, huh?

This couldn't have come at a better time for the Cubs.  After that wretched stretch of play earlier this month, with the hitters struggling and various pitchers on the shelf, the Cubs needed a dominant performance to set the tone for the rest of the regular season.  Enter Houston, or rather "enter Hurricane Ike."  MLB needed to get the games in so they sent the teams to Wrigley Field North.  23,000 Cubs fans made the last minute trip, and at least 20 Houston fans.  Who could imagine a weirder scenario for the Cubs to get their first no-hitter in 36 years?  Derrek Lee even had a big hit.

The whole situation did kind of suck for Houston.  Hurricane at home to worry about; last minute long travel plans; zero home field advantage; long winning streak.  Could this no-no been partially the result of some Ryan O'Malley type of hangover?  Maybe a little.  But Z was dealing and legitimately good.  I'll take it. 

This awesome Cubs high almost made me forget about the Bears.  The Bears lost today for three reasons:  1) Penalties, 2) Turnovers, and 3) Orton.  Way, way too many penalties.  They killed drives, called back great Forte runs, and surrendered excellent field position.  Then, Olsen had to go and fumble the ball twice.  Both times led to a Carolina score, and the comeback would not have been possible without those turnovers.  Simple as that.  Then, there's Kyle Orton.  Orton didn't make many mistakes - no fumbles, no picks - but he also didn't do anything to help the Bears win.  He couldn't make plays when they needed him most.  We all know that the long ball isn't his strength, and that couldn't have been more obvious today.  He had open receivers deep and just didn't come within a mile of any of them.  After two weeks, I've seen nothing to change my mind that "Kyle Orton doesn't lose games, and he doesn't win them either."  I don't think the Bears need to bench him or anything, as I'd like to see him start at least another four or five games before the Bears do anything rash.  If he continues to not win games, it might be time to develop some sort of "bullpen" strategy.  Let Kyle start and not screw things up.  Down in the fourth in need of a comeback?  Put in the gunslinger.  It's quickly becoming obvious that Orton is not the next Elway.

Ah, but who cares.  Big Z!! No-No!!  I can't believe it!

Review: 'Death Magnetic', Metallica

Perry said I could write whatever the hell I want on this site so long as I write at least one post a week and I don't say anything that might get him sued.  So I figured with the modest success of my Lollapalooza review, I might as well whip out the occasional musing on the music I'm listening to.  (Nearly 600 hits on the Lolla thing - suck it, Rolling Stone!)  So please welcome the new tag: Music.

I've been a Metallica fan for over twenty years, and I've seen them in concert probably a dozen times.  So if you think that I might be a bit biased in writing this, you're probably right.  But truthfully I actually haven't listened to Metallica all that much in the last ten years.  I mean, they pop up on random, and I might spin a Metalli-disc maybe two or three times a year, but mainly I've been focusing on more modern stuff.  (Like Stripes, System, QOTSA, Coldplay, Killers, etc.)

So anyways, when I heard that Rick Rubin was producing the new Metallica album, my interest was piqued.  I've been long of the opinion that Rick Rubin is a wizard.  He's often the man behind the controls for an artist's best work.  See Aerosmith,  Beastie Boys, Tom Petty, Black Crowes, Chilli Peppers, Slayer, Johnny Cash, and even the Dixie Chicks.  Hell, he even made Slipknot sound good.  So Rubin comes in and gets Metallica to harken back to 1986.  (That was the year that their best album, Master of Puppets, came out.)  What were you thinking, what were you feeling, what was your mindset, what was your motivation for writing songs.  And it worked.

Death Magnetic doesn't sound like Puppets, part deux.  Its got elements of all their albums, even the disappointing recent ones.  I mean, I like the albums Load, ReLoad, and St. Anger to a point.  They're all good or somewhat good albums.  But hardly any of the songs were great, and I was never truly excited about any of those albums.  On their first five albums, Metallica was constantly great.  Nary a wasted track.  This new album is just like old times.  It excites me.  A lot. 

The first track, "That Was Just Your Life," is what you'd get if Dave Mustaine got his wish and recorded a new album with James and Lars, right down to the lyrics.  It's Rust in Peace crossed with And Justice For All, with better vocals and production quality.  The next song, "The End of the Line," would fit in nicely on St. Anger if you subtracted the garbage-can-lid-drums, muddled riffs and added a few blistering guitar solos.  The first single, "The Day that Never Comes," goes back to the days of "One" and "Fade to Black," the ballad-turned-rocker.  Toss in an homage to "Leper Messiah" and "Am I Evil?", with some vintage dueling solos, and you have a perfect lead single. 

Perhaps my favorite songs on the album are "The Judas Kiss" and "My Apocalypse."  The former is an all-out assault on your ears with an infectious, Black Album type of hook for the chorus while the latter wouldn't be out of place on Slayer's Reign in Blood.  Seriously. 

If there's any down side, it's "Unforgiven III."  Why, oh why, must you beat that dead horse, James.  The original is a classic; the second pretty much garbage.  Now, this new track isn't nearly that bad.  In fact, it's probably better than all but maybe five songs from the entire Load/ReLoad era and there's a strong chance that it will grow on me.  But it still didn't need to be done and it should have been left alone.

Also, some of the lyrics are less than stellar.  I'm not much of a lyric guy anyways, but the whole "crypt keeper" thing can be rather comical at times.  "Cyanide" and "All Nightmare Long" read like vintage Mercyful Fate.  Music still rocks hard, though, so I'll overlook it.

The more I think about it, the new album actually kind of pisses me off.  I mean, we've been putting up with crap for the last 15 years while they could have continued to churn out near-classics like this?  Bob Rock needs to die.

8.5 out of 10  (I'll explain my imdb-esque rating system at a later date.  Suffice it to say, that's an awfully good rating.)

Quick Bears-Panthers Preview

The Bears, coming off the great Indy upset, travel to Carolina this Sunday.  Carolina is also coming off a great road win against the San Diego Chargers.  Should be a great game.

It seems like half of Carolina's roster is former Bears.  Muhsin Muhammad, he of the "receivers go to die" statement, is the most prominent.  He's spent an awful lot of time trashing the Bears lately.  The Bears have been taking the high road in regards to Moose's comments.  Till Sunday, that is.  Expect him to get leveled over the middle by Mike Brown. 

Chris Harris is another prominent former Bear.  He had a decent rookie season, mediocre second, and a terrible blown coverage in the Super Bowl before the Bears traded him to the Panthers.  Since then, of course, superstud.  He's got something like nine fumble recoveries which is, by my count, about nine more than he had with the Bears.  He's grown a nose for the football since leaving the city "where third string safeties end up starting."  Bad move by Angelo to let him go, though I must admit the current unit is shaping up to be pretty solid.  (until they get hurt, that is.)

As for the rest of the Panthers, the Bears are again facing a team at the right time.  Steve Smith is serving a team-ordered suspension (for beating up a CB).  Plus, I heard today that Carolina's record in home openers is abysmal.  Something like 4-13 in their (mostly good) history.  Odd. 

If the Bears can somehow win this game and go 2-0, then we'll know last Sunday was legit and we can start talking "Super Bowl, Super Bears."  Well, no, not really.  But we can start believing that a repeat of 2005 will be in reach.  Unfortunately, I don't think lightning is going to strike twice.  Panthers 20, Bears 10.  You know, I'll take the 1-1.  Still better than I figured.

Oh, I almost forgot.  Fred Miller is back.  Fred, we didn't miss ye.  At all.  Actually, I think this isn't a bad move by the team.  If St. Clair or Tait get hurt, the Bears would be beyond dead.  At least Fred knows the system, and supposedly he was playing hurt last year.  If he's back to 2005-2006 form, this deal is great.  If he's back to 2007 form, well, not so much.

Cubs hanging in there

The Cubs beat the Cardinals tonight for the second consecutive night, after having lost eight of their previous nine games.  It was a pretty horrible stretch, and it was really starting to piss me off on Tuesday night, but all in all I can't complain too much.  The lead was and still is too big for me to get too worked up over a few (albeit miserable) losses.  (Thank you, Brewers!)  Barring a stretch of sub-.200 ball to close the season, the Cubs will make the playoffs.  Would I prefer that the Cubs pull their heads out of their collective asses?  Sure.  We all would.  But they're gonna make it.  What happens when they get there is another story.

Now, the glass-half-full crowd suggests that this stretch of lousy play is normal.  Check out this great post from Al at BleedCubbieBlue.  It shows how each of the last seven World Series winners all had a stretch of lousy, sometimes horrendous, play in the month of September before ultimately winning it all.  (Including the 2005 White Sox, who I mentioned in my last post.)

The seesawing teams is actually starting to become a staple of every MLB season, thanks to the Wild Card.  Teams coming, teams going; happens every September.  Look at Houston this year (and 2005 for that matter).  Left for dead, they went on incredibly winning streaks to finish the season.  Last year's Rockies, too.  Though, also note that neither team actually won the World Series; they were too spent and simply ran out of gas in October.  Maybe the Cubs will be one of the "lousy September" teams that barely hung on before getting hot at the right time in October.  One can dream, can't he?

Of course, you could also be the 2007 Mets, who blew a 7 game lead with 17 to play.  That's what we're trying to avoid here.  We don't need another 1969 on our hands. 

This is all to say I don't know what the hell's going to happen.  All I know is the magic number is 11 and the Brewers just keep on losing.  I'm just going to cross my fingers and go on with my life.

EAMUS CATULI

Thoughts on Brady and more on Bears-Indy

Unless you were in a coma the last few days, you probably heard that Tom Brady is out for the year.  While Bostonians are obviously completely devastated by the news, the rest of the NFL fans in this country have something to look forward to.  No, I'm not saying that the loss of Tom Brady is good for the league; it's not.  He's easily one of the top two QBs in the game, if not the best, and he figures prominently in the discussion for "best Quarterback of all time."  Watching him perform is a joy.  What I'm saying is his loss makes for a more interesting football season, if not as exciting. 

With Brady out, the Patriots have two options: Matt Cassel or a free agent (reject) off the street.  I, for one, am hoping that we get the opportunity to see both varieties.  Matt Cassel is an interesting story.  Since Cassel has backed up an iron man in the pros (Brady), and Heisman winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC, he hasn't started a game since 1999, when he was in High School.  That just kills me.  This guy has had the easiest job in sports, and now its time for him to step up.  I sincerely wish him well.  Nobody has any idea what to expect. 

Beyond that, what I'd really like to see is New England sign some reject off the street like Tim Rattay or Chris Simms.  We know what these guys can do when on a "normal" organization.  Rattay, with all due respect, is terrible.  And Simms isn't a whole lot better.  Not many jobless QBs are.  Point being, seeing one of those guys under center for the Patriots might help answer the age-old chicken-before-the-egg question about franchise Quarterbacks and the sytems they play in. 

If the Patriots sign Rattay and Rattay continues to stink, that makes Brady look a little better and Belichick's system look worse.  "Belichick can only win with a franchise QB," becomes the argument.  If Rattay does well, that makes Brady look a a tick worse and Belichick look a little better.  "Brady was lucky to fall into Belichick's lap."  I'm not saying Rattay would have to throw for 50 TDs or anything, I'm just looking for a noticeable, maybe even dramatic, improvement.  Let's say the 12th or 15th best passer in the NFL (which would be about a 20-25 spot jump for him.)   That's why Cassel isn't really a good example for this exercise  - only his momma knows how good he is.

This is essentially the chicken-before-the-egg argument.  Would Tom Brady still be Tom Brady if he were drafted in the 6th round by the Bears instead of New England?  A team that is cancer to Quarterbacks?  A team that hasn't been able to develop a long-term talent under center since Sid Luckman?  A lot of people say Brady still would have been great.  I happen to disagree.  I think he needed a strong coaching staff along with a fair amount of talent around him (and a certain amount of luck) in order to succeed.  Now, I will say that the talent around him only got him so far.  He eventually exceeded everyone's wildest expectations and became one of the best QBs of all time.  That was all due to hard work by him, and the talent/fortitude he brought to the table.  But would he even have had a chance in Chicago?  I highly doubt it. 

Peyton Manning, on the other hand, would have been Peyton Manning in Chicago.  He's the rare franchise-turning can't-miss prospect taken at the very top of the draft.  Everyone knew he'd be a star (if not necessarily win championships - remember those days?)  He's his own coach.  Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore said it himself last night on the broadcast,  "I just give Peyton suggestions."  Talk about a one-man show.  Are Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne really that good?  Or are they a byproduct of Manning?  I think any good receiver would look great catching passes from Manning.  Brady has gotten to that level himself the last five years, too.  Put Bernard Berrian on the Pats or Colts and he'd be a Pro Bowler.  Put him on the Bears and he's maybe the 12th best receiver in the NFC.  (Put him on the Vikings and he's 20th.  Man, Tarvaris Jackson is awful.)

Anyways, speaking of the Bears and Colts - did anyone catch Peter King's column today?  He has the Bears ranked 8th in his "Fine Fifteen."  He flip-flopped his opinion on the Bears so fast that I almost got whiplash.  It will be interesting seeing the power rankings on all the sites this week.  The Bears consistently were around 24-26 in everybody's preseason rankings.  Now I bet they're in the top 15 everywhere, if not higher.  I'm not going to lie, the preseason situation looked dire to me, too.  But now it doesn't look so bad.  It's amazing what one win will do for you.  I'm still not sold on this team, nor do I think it will be "the year."  I'm just saying it looks a whole lot better than it did on Saturday.  I have reason to believe that the Bears will contend into November.  And that beats a 1-6 start any day.

Bears whip Indy

The Bears smacked around the Colts tonight to a tune of 29-13, but really, I don't even think it was that close.  While it's not exactly payback for Super Bowl XLI, it sure is nice to beat the heavy favorites on their home turf.  My friend Dave texted me tonight asking if "indy sucked this bad or its possible the Bears have a decent team."  My reply:  "a little of both, though it does mean the preseason was meaningless, at a minimum."  Exactly.  Peyton was rusty, no doubt.  He certainly missed his center, too.  But still, it's Peyton Manning.  He had two Pro Bowl receivers in Harrison and Wayne.  He had Joseph Addai.  The Bears, for all practical purposes, shut them down.  A good defense did what it was supposed to do tonight, period.  The line just manhandled the Colts, on both sides of the ball.  Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye, Dusty Dvoracek, and Marcus Harrison just owned the Colts upfront.  And that made everybody else's job a whole lot easier.

On offense, Matt Forte looked great tonight, as did Kevin Jones.  Massive upgrade from last year.  The patchwork offensive line made some big holes and Forte took advantage.  What a massive upgrade from last year, when Benson would dive right into Garza's heel.  I'm not ordering a #22 jersey just yet, because anyone can look good for one game.  But he looks like a keeper, to say the least. 

Orton was solid, and especially unspectacular.  Gotta hand it to Ron Turner.  As boring and conservative as he called the plays, he called the right ones and Neckbeard executed.  No complaints from me.  And there was a Marty Booker sighting! 

At this time I'd like to point out that Charles Tillman is the best ball puncher in football.  His takeaway was the play of the game.  After Hester's foolish return led to a three-and-out from the five, followed by a short field touchdown drive by the Colts, the Bears needed to make a play on defense to take back the momentum.  How about a fumble return for a TD by the money man, Lance Briggs?  Worked for me.

Do I have any concerns after tonight?  Not really.  I'd like to see a little more adventurous playcalling, as eventually teams will start stacking the line and start forcing Orton to beat them.  I'd also like to see Tommie Harris play more, as he seemed to be on the sideline for most of the night, presumably less than 100%.  But other than that, full steam ahead.  Its a long season, and 1-0 is simply a nice start.  Made me forget about the Cubs shocking loss for a little while, at a minimum.

BEAR DOWN.

Bears 2008 Season Preview and a look at the Colts

The Bears open the 2008 season with a rematch of Super Bowl XLI on Sunday Night Football.  The Colts are heavy favorites, and they deserve to be.  That doesn't mean the Bears can't win, though.  In fact, just because the situation looks dire for the franchise this year, doesn't mean that the Bears are automatically resigned to a 4-12 season.  Yes, the defense looked bad in the preseason.  Yes, the offense is lacking playmakers.  Yes, the schedule is pretty tough.  But I think if four things go right this season, the Bears have a chance at making the playoffs.  Wait a minute!  Hold on everybody, don't leave yet...let me explain.

I've said this before to people, but I don't think I've mentioned it on the blog yet.  This is what I think needs the happen for the Bears to have a chance this year:

• Defense stays healthy.  Look at the big money talent on defense.  Urlacher, Harris, Briggs, Tillman, Vasher, Mike Brown, Alex Brown.  All of them Pro Bowlers (or alternates).  None of them particularly old.  Dvoracek, Ogunleye.  Better than average talent.  I'm sincerely hoping that the preseason abomination was just a fluke.  With all that talent on D, you'd think they'd be able to string together a top 10 unit.  Maybe even top 5.  They just need to stay healthy.  They don't stay healthy, though, all bets are off. 
• Matt Forte pans out.  If the rookie running back can get 1100+ yards, average 3.8 YPC or better, and score 8 or 10 touchdowns, he'll stabilize the offense and help keep the defense off the field.  Orton just needs to protect the football and make a few plays per game.  Nothing fancy, though I honestly wouldn't be all that surprised if he threw for 2,800 yards and 15-20 TDs this year.  That's not special, but it'd be plenty good for the Bears.
• A playmaker emerges.  Whether its Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, Greg Olsen, or anybody else; somebody needs to step up this year.  I liked Bernard Berrian, but I don't think he's $42 million dollars better than any of the guys listed above.  The Bears were wise to pass.
• Offensive Line gels.  This might be the toughest of all for the Bears to achieve.  The Chris Williams injury just kills them.  I had him penciled in for 16 starts a year and a Pro Bowl by 2010.  And if he panned out, I thought the line had a chance to get strong in a hurry and in the process give the Bears a legitimate shot at doing well this year.  Now?  The line is patchwork.  I like that they got another body from Tampa yesterday (Buenning), because he's sorely needed.  But I am just having a hard time seeing this unit survive a complex blitz package.  Tait and Kreutz are getting old.  Beekman?  St. Clair?  Nice backups, but on paper this unit clearly isn't good enough.  That said, if they do manage to do their job, the offense can crack the top 25 or so.  (Yippee!)

So that's it.  All that happens, 10-6 is within reach and they'd earn the right to get whipped by a real team come January.  At this point, I'd take it, because 6-10 or 7-9 seems most likely.  I just can't see all the above happening.  As for Sunday...

I think the Bears have a decent shot at winning this one.  Manning should be rusty, and Jeff Saturday (who absolutely smacked the Bears around in Miami) is gone for six weeks.  That's huge for the Bears chances.  The biggest threat to the Bears is Bob Sanders.  He manages to keep Forte contained, the opportunity to win will fall on Orton's shoulder.  Will somebody step up?  Probably not.  Colts 24, Bears 10.

While we're here, Jeff Dickerson on ESPN AM 1000 requested that Bears fans take a look at the Colts last ten number one picks and compare them to the Bears last ten number ones.  We pretty much know that the Bears sucked throughout this time, and he was surmising that the Colts sustained success is due to their collection of excellent number ones.  So let's take a look at their list, shall we?  SHALL WE??

1998 - Peyton Manning
1999 - Edgerrin James
2000 - Rob Morris
2001 - Reggie Wayne
2002 - Dwight Freeney
2003 - Dallas Clark
2004 - no #1 (Bob Sanders taken in 2nd)
2005 - Marlin Jackson
2006 - Joseph Addai
2007 - Anthony Gonzalez

You know?  Not bad.  Let's ignore the Bears busts (because I've been talking about them a lot lately) and simply list the guys that panned out:

2000 - Brian Urlacher
2004 - Tommie Harris
2007 - Greg Olsen (we hope)

Eek, no contest. The Colts picks are better.  But I argue that their success is mostly due to the selection and presence of one Peyton Manning.  The presence of a franchise QB makes the entire team better in every aspect of the game.  The Bears, for all the crap I've given them, have actually been pretty solid overall at drafting in the Angelo era (thanks to the later rounds).  Solid in comparison to their peers that is.  In fact, don't take it from me, take it from this guy at FOX sports:  he ranked the Bears 7th in the league in terms of draft quality over the last five years.  When you look at the number of starters taken, Pro Bowlers taken, etc, the Bears compare favorably to the 2nd ranked Colts.  Really, the major difference is the presence of a franchise Quarterback.  You can win a single Super Bowl without a franchise QB, but you absolutely need one if you want to be a perennial contender.

Anyways, that's it.  BEAR DOWN.

What? Me Worry?

I know I've been nitpicking the Cubs lately.  They win 9 of 10, have the best record in baseball, and I write a post about how the "little things" are going to kill them.  Or I do a historical post about how they've had crappy center fielders forever.  Now that the Cubs have been swept by the Astros and have lost five in a row overall, I'm going to pull the old switcheroo.  I'm not going to complain.  Not about this losing streak, anyways.

Every team has stretches where they play like absolute garbage.  You can't have a 162-game season without having a few losing streaks.  No hitting, lousy pitching, horrendous pen, errors, bad-baserunning - the whole nine.  Take the 2005 White Sox.  (Please.) They had a 15-game lead in August, entered September with a 9-game lead, played like crap down the stretch and let the lead dwindle to 1.5 games.  What happened in October?  Eleven and one. 

Not that I'm advocating a swoon or anything, I'm just saying this team is too talented and the lead is too big for the Cubs to miss the postseason.  They'd have to go something like 5-20 the rest of the way, while the Phillies play out of their minds, for the Cubs to miss the playoffs.  So I'm not concerned.  Yet.

What I am concerned about, of course, is team health.  Just get to October healthy and roll the dice.  First and foremost, I'm concerned about Carlos Zambrano.  The Big Z.  So he had a dead arm and skipped a start over the weekend?  No big deal, he just wanted to get out of his own personal hell month, right?  No.  Last night he was shaky and asked out after 5 innings and 86 pitches.  Ok.  Not too bad.  But wait, there's more.  Today, he was scheduled for a MRI but decided to skip it.  Then, he was a no show for the game.  Um, what?  He skipped the MRI?  What does he think they'll find?  He's on the shelf in October and the Cubs will no longer be the favorite.  They'd still be good, and have a chance to win it all, no doubt.  But they'd be no better than any of the other seven teams competing.  And that's not good enough for this Cubs fan.

To make matters worse, Rich Harden is experiencing "discomfort."  You don't say.  Harden says he could have pitched this week but Lou has wisely shut him down.  No big deal, right?  Tell you what, if they still have a 5 game lead come Monday, I'd push him back some more and continue to use him sparingly the rest of the way.  Get him healthy.  Don't risk it.  If our ace-in-name-only is on the bench, we absolutely need our young, fragile superstud starting multiple games in each round. 

In other words, if Marquis makes the postseason roster, consider the dream season over.  I'm just saying.

I guess still feel the need to complain.  Till next time...

Bears Make their Cuts and another Draft Review

The Bears made their final cuts over the weekend and the roster is set.  Of the guys that were cut, the most notable were former high picks Dan Bazuin and Michael Okwo.  Neither played a regular season down for the Bears, and as a second and third round pick, respectively, both have found homes on my "all-time draft busts" list.  In fact, here's where I'd put the new additions:

1.  Curtis Enis (RB) - 1998, #1 (5th overall) 
2.  Stan Thomas (T) - 1991, #1 (22nd overall) 
3.  Cade McNown (QB) - 1999, #1 (12th overall) 
4.  Rashaan Salaam (RB) 1995, #1 (21st overall) 
5.  Cedric Benson (RB) 2005, #1 (5th overall) - Two words:  Sun Chips. 
6.  Marc Columbo (T) - 2002, #1 (29th overall)
7.  John Thierry (LB) - 1994, #1, (11th overall) 
8.  Michael Haynes (DE) - 2003, #1, (13th overall) 
9.  David Terrell (WR) - 2001, #1, (8th overall) 
10.  Dan Bazuin (DE) - 2007, #2, (62nd overall) - I slot him just above Spellman because Spellman actually played.  Did you see what Lovie supposedly told Bazuin?  That when he was drafted, they didn't think Alex Brown would still be here.  But now that he is, its a numbers game at Defensive End.  So why did Toenia make it?  Uh, because the pick sucked?  Thank you.
11.  Alonzo Spellman (DE) - 1991, #1, (22nd overall) 
12.  Todd Sauerbrun (P) - 1995, #2 (56th overall)
13.  John Allred (TE) - 1997, #2, (38th overall)
14.  Marcus Spears (T) - 1994, #2, (39th overall)
15.  Roe Williams (CB) - 2002, #3, (72nd overall)
16.  Russell Davis (DE) - 1999, #2, (48th overall)
17.  Michael Okwo (LB) - 2007, #3 (94th overall) - Never played a down for the Bears.  Third rounders need to contribute.
18.  Carl Simpson (DT) - 1993, #2, (35th overall)

It looks like the 2007 Draft might end up being one of the all-time worst for the Bears.  Everybody thought Angelo was incredibly arrogant with his picks, especially with his 2nd and 3rd rounders.  Everybody was right.  My review of that draft on the day it happened suggested that Angelo was going for the home run.  He only had one safe pick, and everything else was a reach and/or a non-need.  This draft may haunt the team for years.  Olsen looks like a keeper, but he still hasn't fully justified the first-round pick yet.  Bazuin and Okwo are gone, with Garrett Wolfe on thin ice.  Those high picks are what's really killing this draft.  The later rounds might save Jerry from a sheer numbers perspective, but that's more luck than anything.  Beekman and Payne are challenging for starting spots, while McBride and Graham have provided cornerback depth.  But is that something to toot your horn about?  You're good at picking roster filler? 

In other roster decisions, Caleb Hanie made the squad.  That's quite a relief, if you ask me.  Hanie's obviously a long shot to do anything in this league, but still.  He did what he was supposed to do against weak competition, and he looked good doing it.  I mean, how confident are we that Grossman would have gotten the job done against those guys?  (Though I must admit that Rex did look OK against the Browns backups).  Letting him walk with the Bears historic QB woes would just be stupid.  I'll waste the roster spot on the 1-in-20 chance that Hanie pans out, thank you very much.

Brandon Rideau was cut and then signed to the practice squad today.  Good.  It's hard to argue with his production in the preseason, with three TD catches and all.  You know Bradley's going to get hurt at some point, and Marty Booker might in fact be as old as he looks.  Hester's never done anything at wideout, Lloyd was awful in Washington, and Earl Bennett is just a rookie.  Really, I'm not super confident that ANY of the six Bears are better than Rideau, so he's worth a flyer. 

And that's it from Bears land, until Sunday.  When its opening day and every team has a shot.  Till next time...