Final Thoughts on Chicago Sports

2009 Bears Draft Review

The Jay Cutler trade took a little fun out of this year's draft for Bears fans, but I don't hear many people complaining.  We got our guy.  Yeah, we gave up two number ones, a number three, and Orton.  But that's not really that much, if you think about it.  First of all, we got a premier player on the cusp of stardom.  Cutler at this point is far more of a sure thing than Stafford, Sanchez, or anybody else at this point.  Had the Lions been able to simply take Cutler with the number one pick, they wouldn't have hesitated to pass over Stafford and give $40 million to Jay.  So really, the Bears got "first overall value" for their package, and that package was worth it.  And to all those who think we set the franchise back...I can name five Bears "number ones" in the last eight years that were garbage, yet they still made a Super Bowl in 2006 and they're not too far off from one now.  So was it worth it?  Hell to the yeah.

Anyways, on to this year's crop of bad picks.

The Bears, of course, couldn't stand having the 49th overall pick in their pocket and had to trade out of the first day of the draft.  For this pick, they picked up a 3rd and 4th rounder from Seattle.  I'm not so sure about this move.  Mohamed Massaquoi was available, and he was the last potentially elite receiver left on the board (according to Scout's Inc.)  But who really knows about these things.  Three years ago, Chad Jackson was the highest rated receiver in the draft and in three seasons he has 14 career catches.  Maybe the Bears just viewed Massaquoi as a system guy who took advantage of playing with Stafford in Georgia. 

Oh, and supposedly Angelo was also attempting to pry Boldin away from Arizona with this pick.  Didn't get done, though, and now the deal is deader than a doornail.  Talk about a "what if", though.  Had Jerry been able to get Boldin, my brain might literally have exploded.  But enough of that.

So with those 3rd and 4th round picks, the Bears picked up a pair of Defensive Ends.  Jarron Gilbert, from San Jose State, and Henry Melton from Texas.  Gilbert is famous for this youtube clip of him jumping out of a pool.  That's right, out of a pool.  I don't know if he can play football, but the dude is a physical freak to be sure.  Melton seems like a solid enough guy, too.  If these two picks tell me anything, it's that Rod Marinelli didn't like what he saw from the line in mini-camp.  With Ogunleye, Brown and maybe even Mark Anderson set to leave after this season, and  Tommie Harris and Dusty Dvoracek not exactly pillars of health, I guess its best to be prepared. 

Sandwiched between those guys as their second third round pick, the Bears finally picked up their receiver in the form of Juaquin Iglesias from Oklahoma.  I like this pick.  Some were predicting that he might be the guy that Bears would go after with the 49th pick, so to find him at 99th overall must have made the Bears excited.  Then again, a full twelve receivers were picked before him so I'd tell him to hold off if he was thinking of preparing a rookie-of-the-year acceptance speech. 

Up next the Bears picked up a Corner from Vanderbilt, D.J. Moore.  I don't know anything about him, but I do know he'll love coming to the Bears.  It's Vanderbilt North these days.

In the fifth round, they took wideout Johnny Knox from Abilene Christian.  Gotta love the Bears.  San Jose State, Vanderbilt, Texas, Oklahoma... they pick from the same freaking schools every freaking year.  They have zero players from USC, yet they've cornered the market on SJS, Ab Christian and Vandy.  Crazy, considering USC has the most pro players of any school in the league.  That said, Knox seems like a good pick that's about as good a bet as Iglesias to succeed.  Which is to say he's got a one-in-five chance of being here in two years. 

OSU linebacker Marcus Freeman came next.  This guy sounds more like a special teams ace than a replacement for Nick Roach.  Probably should be useful enough for a fifth round pick, though.

In the sixth and seventh rounds, they added some more roster filler.  Safety Al Afalava, Guard Lance Louis and WR Derek Kinder.  None of these guys sound all that special, but that's par for the course in the last two rounds.

Given the circumstances, I think it was a solid draft for the Bears.  If you factor in the acquisition of Cutler, I'd have to give the Bears an A-.  I'm curious as to why they didn't pick up a free safety, and I'm still not sold on trading down away from Massaquoi.  But all of their other glaring needs were at least addressed and now we just have to see them play. 

August is just around the corner.  Bear down.

Great Time to be a Chicago Sports Fan

The Bulls and Hawks are looking good in the playoffs, the Cubs and Sox are both coming off playoff appearances and off to a decent start.  Oh, and the Bears just traded for a franchise Quarterback, only two seasons removed from a Super Bowl appearance.  Has there been a better time to be a Chicago Sports fan?  I vote no.

• The Bulls are one shot away from being 2-0 on the mighty Celtics in a series almost nobody gave them a chance at winning.  Derrick Rose was an absolute stud in his playoff debut, and he willed the team to victory in game one.  The Jordan comparisons are about five years and two championships premature, but it sure does look like we got a winner in town.  Some more things I like:
• Ben Gordon's 42 point outburst in game 2.  Sure, he only had one rebound and zero assists...but this is exactly why you keep Ben Gordon.  He can just go off and score at will.  He hit five nearly impossible shots down the stretch.  He was NBA Jam "on fire."  Just throw him money and try to move Deng.
• Ty Thomas and Joakim Noah.  Both young big men stepped up in the second half of this season, and I never would have thought that possible back in December.  I absolutely hated this franchise back then.  Now I think the team has a legitmately bright future, even brighter than I thought they had back in 2005, when they were seemingly on the cusp of a breakthrough.
• Brad Miller and John Salmons.  Salmons hasn't been all that great in the playoffs, but what a great trade for John Paxson.  Does he lose points for robbing a nearly bankrupt franchise?  Hell no.  He still had to beat out 20 other teams in that fire sale.
• Vinny Del Negro.  No, he's still not a good coach.  But he's done a decent job lately, and that's far more praise than I ever thought I'd be giving back in December.  He's still making rookie mistakes, like running out of timeouts in game 2 and not figuring out a way to take advantage of Rondo's injury with Rose.  But he's gone from laughingstock to respectable, and he's earned another year, at least. 
• Each of the first two games of this series was a classic.  Just great, great basketball.  Can the rest of the series possibly live up to the greatness of the first two games?  It doesn't seem possible, but I'd like to think so.  Can the Bulls win the series?  Yes, but I'd still pick the Celts if you put a gun to my head.  Yeah, Boston hasn't looked very good on their home court, KG and now Powe are lost, and they just flat out look old.  But Pierce has been an absolute non-factor for them.  Can that possibly continue?  I expect him to step up like Ray Allen did in the second half of game 2.  He does that, and Boston wins the game by a clean dozen.  And the series. 
• I'm not going to pretend to be a huge Blackhawks fan, but I have to admit that playoff hockey is pretty cool.  Maybe next year I will commit to the indian.
• The Cubs are rolling.  I was at Saturday's game, a great win for the Cubs.  Saw Cutler throw a strike to start the game.  Put him in the bullpen!  At least there he has a chance of running into Jeff Samardzija, the best receiver in Chicago.  And hey, hey!  Aramis!!
• Sox?  Quentin keeps hitting like this and it will be hard to keep them out of the postseason.  The more Chicago the merrier.

I can go on all day but there's still work to be done.  And I didn't even mention the draft. 

BEAR DOWN

Cubs-Brewers Never Disappoints

The Cubs wrapped up a 3-game series against the Brewers tonight, and all three games lived up to the hype.  Some thoughts:

• Freaking Kevin Gregg.  He's yet another in the long line of on-and-on-and-on crappy closer acquisitions for the Cubs.  Antonio Alfonseca, Mel Rojas, Dave Smith, Latroy Hawkins, Rick Aguilera.  Name your loser.  He's now given up a run in every appearance, and I put the over-under on him being replaced by Marmol at 1.5 weeks (which means he has about a half a week left).  What can I say about Marmol that hasn't already been said.  He was awesome on Saturday.  He was awesome today.  I love him in the 7th and 8th in high leverage situations, but I also love not having to hide under a blanket and pray for every 9th inning out.  We were spoiled last year with Wood. 
• Is it me, or does it seem like Prince Fielder always strikes out to make the final out in Cubs victories?  Marmol got him Saturday, Gregg got him today.  I recall an epic dual with Wood last September.  I like it.  Although he still scares the crap out of me every time he swings.
• Alfonso Soriano!!  Mr. All-or-Nothing is Mr. Everything right now.  His bomb Saturday had me jumping out of my seat.  His leadoff homer tonight almost seemed pre-ordained.  I swear, I've never flip-flopped as much as I have with my opinion of Soriano.  This week, I'm thinking he's the smartest $136 million that Hendry ever spent.  Next week I'll probably calling for his benching again.  Unreal.
• Milton Bradley had to leave tonight's game.  Every time I watch him run the bases or run down a fly ball, I hold my breath.  Its kind of like watching Rich Harden pitch last year.  Every time he whips his arm back, I feared it was going to break off like Dave Dravecky.  Bradley has got to play 120 games this year for the Cubs to have a chance.
• How about his replacement tonight, Reed Johnson?  Play of the year.  And unlike last year's amazing catch, the Cubs actually held on to win the game.
• Kosuke Fukudome has been raking all week, shutting me and my DFA-calling mouth right up.  Speaking of my stupid judge-a-season-by-watching-five-games analysis, I smell another wild conclusion jump in 3...2...1...
• It's official:  Derrek Lee has warning track power.  Does it even seem possible for him to hit 15 homers this year?  I know its possible, it just doesn't seem like it.

So the Cubs are 4-2 with Jason Marquis and the Rockies coming to town for the home opener.   And imagine if they had Soto healthy or a decent bullpen?  Or more than one hit from Milton Bradley.  Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen. 

Go, Cubs!

Cubs 2009 Preview

I'm not exactly going out on a limb by picking the Cubs to three-peat as Central Division Champions.  Everyone's picking the Cubs this year.  In fact, I have yet to find a single forecast of Cubs doom.  You know what that means, right?  Fifth place, baby!

No, not really.  But tell me you'd be genuinely surprised if the Cubs choke this year.  A hundred years of heartache doesn't go away with two good regular seasons in a row.  So let's continue my spring tradition and go through the roster, comparing it to last year, and see who expects to be better, the same, and worse.

What positions should be significantly better?
Right Field - Milton Bradley, even in 120 games, should be a significant upgrade over Kosuke Fukudome and Mark DeRosa.  He's a switch hitter, he hits for average, he gets on base, he's got pop.  Seriously, if he didn't get hurt all the time he'd be a MVP candidate.  Wouldn't it be something if he stays healthy for a full season?  I'm not counting on it, but a guy can dream, right?  Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that he's not exactly beloved by fans.  He's a major league a-hole.  But the a-hole can hit.

What positions should stay basically the same?
Third Base, First Base, Left Field - The Cubs big three of Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano figure to put up the same numbers they always do.  And those numbers are good.

Catcher - Soto was great last year, and I expect him to more or less repeat those numbers.  Any sophomore slump would probably be offset by being fully healthy after bruising his hand in the second half last year.  There will probably be a slight dropoff with the backup catcher, in moving from Blanco to Koyie Hill.  Probably not enough to make a difference, though.

Shortstop - Theriot more or less had a career year, so I wouldn't be shocked if he dropped some.  That said, he hit .412 this spring and he's always been patient so I think he's capable of repeating his 2008 numbers. 

Starting Rotation - Dempster will probably be a little worse, but Zambrano will probably be a little better.  Lilly will be fine and Marshall should at least accomplish what Marquis did.  Harden will be in and out of the rotation and he's a huge question mark, but that's just the territory that is Rich Harden.  Since they released Gaudin today and sent Samardzija to the minors, I'm not sure who's next in line to start.  Heilman, maybe?  If anyone's lost for a significant amount of time, Hendry would probably have to pursue a trade.  I've got some concerns, but if they stay healthy they should be fine.

What positions will probably be worse?
Second Base - If Fontenot hits as a full-timer like he did as a part-timer, then there will be no problem in losing DeRosa.  Can the little man keep it up, though?  I'd be happy with .285 and a dozen bombs, even though on paper he looks like he might actually be able to repeat DeRosa's numbers.  But I'm expecting a significant downgrade.

Center Field - Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds were stalwarts last year.  Completely out of nowhere, they combined for awesome numbers that would have led NL Centerfielders in a number of categories.  Johnson should remain solid, but can Fukudome come even remotely close to picking up the slack left by Edmonds?  I seriously doubt it.  Nothing I've seen this spring suggests that he can play major league baseball.  I hope I'm wrong.  If he hits half as well as he did the first six weeks of last season, he'll be fine.  But if I were a betting man, I'd put money on DFA (or a buyout) by June 1st.  At that point Joey Gathright will get the starts, and I'll start hitting the bottle.

Bullpen - The bullpen was solid last year, and I would think that they should be solid this year.  But you can't ignore that Gregg is a defnite downgrade from Wood.  And Vizcaino is a total stroke that's only here because of his salary.  Guzman and Patten are only here because they can't be sent down.  And Cotts will have "nothing special" on his tombstone.  Really, it's Marmol and Gregg and a bunch of mediocre or worse guys.  This could very well be a disaster.  My fingers will never be un-crossed.

Bench - Instead of Ward, Fontenot, Cedeno, Blanco, and Johnson/Edmonds; you've got Hoffpauir, Miles, Hill, Gathright, and Johnson/Fukudome.  They have no true third base backup, and a true DH as your only real lumber.  I like Micah's bat, but he's brutal with the leather.  Really, the entire bench is worse than last year, although I wouldn't exactly call the loss huge.  Still, a downgrade is a downgrade.

So despite all the downgrades, they've got one massive upgrade and the core of the team is in tact.  They stay healthy, they win the division by five or more games.  I just don't think 97 wins will happen again.  Let's give them 92 and pray that none of the also-rans get hot. 

Go, Cubs!

Shock and Awe: Bears Trade for Cutler

It's official, the Bears got Jay Cutler from Denver for Kyle Orton, two first rounders, and a third rounder.  Denver's also sending a 5th rounder back.  They certainly gave up a lot, but I love this deal for the Bears.  A franchise QB is coming to a team that has never had one.  That's the bottom line.  I like Kyle, and you can win with Kyle.  But he's maybe the 15th best QB in football.  He *might* some day be as good as 10th or 12th best in the league.  Cutler's already top seven.  He might be top three.  That's just unfathomable to this Bears fan.  (See this post for more reasons why I prefer Cutler to Orton.)

Angelo has got to be doubly excited today.  Not only has he thrown it in all the naysayer's faces, (it will NEVER happen!), but now he doesn't have to pay a number one draft pick for two whole years!!!  Jerry hates throwing big money at unproven players.  Now he just has to pay Jay.  And he's got an extra fifth rounder, where he thrives!  And really, the Bears also have that extra 3rd round compensatory pick (for losing Berrian to free agency) so the Bears will still have a full slate draft picks this season.  They've got enough picks to find a starting caliber WR and Safety.

Oh, and the Bears picked up the Pace today in signing Orlando.  As far as I'm concerned, the line is now set.  They've got Pace, Chris Williams (aka Baby Huey), Kevn Shaffer (a solid former Brown that started 50 games), and Omiyale.  The line should be at least as good as last year, when they were "solid against everybody not named Jared Allen." 

They really should look into signing Torry Holt.  Boldin is pretty much out of the question now because the Bears have nothing left to trade.  Boldin's not going unless they get a first rounder in return, in addition to players.  Holt isn't elite anymore, but he should be able to bridge the gap while the young guys get up to speed.  And really, he's only 32 and still figures to be better than anyone the Bears have got now.

This has got to be the most exciting day in Bears offseason history.  Without really doing any research, I'd say the most exciting Bears pickups in the free agency era were:

• Bryan Cox
• Muhsin Muhammad (via trade)
• Adewale Ogunleye (via trade)

None of these guys really lived up to our hopes, but you have to admit that you were awfully excited when they showed up in Lake Forest.  The Bears have picked up some other solid guys in that timeframe, like John Tait and Ruben Brown.  But nobody gets excited over linemen.  Really, I'd say that list is about it for exciting moves.  (And no, I was NOT excited when they picked up Rick Mirer.) 

In fact, Cutler might be the most exciting pickup in Chicago Sports history.  This could be a franchise changer.  Does anything else come close?  Again, no research.  This is off the top of my head, and really only covers the last 25 years or so.  But I remember these moves making a stir.

Cubs
Alfonso Soriano
Derrek Lee
(The Nomar Garciaparra, Rich Harden, and Aramis Ramirez & Kenny Lofton trades created quite a stir, but they were in-season and I'm going to ignore those for the moment or else I'll be here all day. )

Sox
Albert Belle
David Wells
Jim Thome

Bulls
Dennis Rodman
Ben Wallace

Oh yeah, the Cutler move blows all these other moves away. It just doesn't compare.  Even if he ends up not being the second coming, today the Bears are winners.  I still can't believe it.

BEAR DOWN.