A Little Mike & Mike on the Cubs
With apologies to the real Mike & Mike, my friend Mike and I engaged in a little email exchange on the Cubs the last few days that sum up the feelings of typical Cubs fans. It started Monday (after the Cubs swept the Indians) with an email from MikeB:
MB: Boy, I thought we had problems until they came to town and redefined the term “struggling.” Have you ever seen a bullpen that made you half as eager to pick up a bat and join the fun? That was a feel-good three days, but I’m not buying it.
You hit on some good points in your blog, but one thing I haven’t seen mentioned enough, in my opinion, is how much the Cubs have flailed against staggeringly mediocre, and even poor, pitching. As soon as I see a guy waltz to the mound looking for his first win of the season or sporting a 5+ ERA, I head straight for the booze cabinet. A few of my most favoritest, very special examples:
May 23 – The immortal Josh Greer, who now owns a 5.98 ERA for the season, has only one win in 10 starts this season, which he earned by holding the Cubs to one run over 6 2/3.
June 13 – The magnificent Anthony Swarzak stymies the Cubs, blanking them for seven innings. The Twins immediately ship him to the minors, demonstrating just how impressive the feat is.
June 20 – Rafael Perez strides to the mound sporting an 11.36 ERA, having given up 32 hits in 18 innings. Result? A 1-2-3 inning of course – two of them on K’s.
It is truly remarkable that they are still in the hunt for anything given how utterly unwatchable they’ve been for the past month. If the games I’ve seen are an accurate representation, they’re hitting about .060 with runners in scoring position. I bet the following joke is making it around National League bullpens right now:
Q: What the best way to keep the Cubs from scoring?
A: Load the bases with nobody out.
You really can’t say enough about the starting pitching, but even with a healthy Ramirez back in the lineup, Bradley returning to form, and Soto shaking off his sophomore slump, it looks to me like the upside for this team is a first-round sweep at the hands of…whoever.
Before I responded, the Cubs were shut out by the Braves on Monday.
MJ: Yeah, the team really isn't good at all. I think they have problems with all pitching, though, not just the crappy guys. They simply have a problem in the clutch, as seen tonight by 10 hits and 0 runs. I mean, who does that? Well, the Cubs do. All the time it seems.
I'm not completely down on their prospects for the season, however. The division really does suck, and all you have to do is get in. The rest, as Billy Beane says, is fucking luck. Ever since the Cardinals won in '06, I can't help but think the regular season is meaningless. All you have to do is get in. That's why I wasn't overly excited last fall. I mean, even with the best record in the NL, I thought they had maybe a 20% chance of winning it all. They sneak in this year with a 85-77 record, and I'd give them a 10% chance. It just doesn't matter until October. And then its simply a matter of how the ball bounces.
Then again, it IS possible to freaking choke. 4 errors in one inning? 7 walks?
After this email, Gregg served up the walkoff to Detroit on Tuesday.
MB: Well, that was kind of my point – if they can’t hit the crappy guys…
Oh, and we forgot to mention they have a tier 3 closer.
The regular season is still meaningful in that only 25% of the teams get in, unlike some sports. But I don’t see how this team can do anything beyond maybe win our crappy division, unless they start showing something that’s been conspicuously absent to date.
Another day, another loss. This time via a Bradley 2-run error and a Marmol bases loaded walk.
MJ: Man, I wish we had a tier 3 closer. Yesterday was absolutely brutal.
Then tonight, more of the same. The good news is they're getting hits. The bad news is they can't bring them home. At this point, I think I might start advocating some small ball. Typically, I'm not in favor of wasting outs on sac bunts. But you watch the leadoff man get on board and end up stranded 20 times in a span of four games makes you rethink your strategy quick. Get at least one run on the board.
MB: First off, the Bradley signing was a disaster. That guy is a loser. Yes, it was a tough catch, but that ball hit the heel of his glove. A major league outfielder should catch that ball. Cost them two runs = ballgame. How many bonehead plays does he need to make? I can’t for the life of me figure out why we wouldn’t be better off with DeRosa and an extra $8M to spend. They should release him to send a message.
MJ: At first, I wanted no part of Bradley, mostly because of his injury history. Dude only played even 100 games twice in his career. And of course, I wasn't looking forward to his lovely personality either, but that was a distant second to his fragility. But then the more and more I looked at his stats from last year, I talked myself into the signing. "The Cubs need someone to add an edge, to disrupt the clubhouse." What a joke. At least the 3rd year is not guaranteed. But you're right - thus far its a major bust.
I don't know if keeping DeRosa would have prevented all this. But I do know he would have played every day at Second, Right, or Third, and the team wouldn't have been overexposed with Fontenot and Miles playing every day. I assumed Fontenot wouldn't be able to keep up last year's pace, but I didn't think he'd fall this far either. And Miles for $4M? Are you kidding?
MB: No doubt! Miles is a poor man’s Augie Ojeda.
During Thursday's loss...
MJ: And Who the hell is Ray Raburn? I saw his stats the other day and knew he was going deep on Gregg. .225 BA, 4 HRs, 14 RBI. He's killing them today, too.
MB: That’s Ryan Raburn. He’s a journeyman’s journeyman, but the 2009 Cubs are making stars all around the league.
A few parting shots:
Both Sean Marshall and Rich Harden currently have better batting averages than not one, not two, but THREE everyday players. And that’s not because they’re capturing lightning in a bottle – they’re hitting .235 and .231 respectively.
In eight starts Randy Wells has compiled a sterling 2.57 ERA…and has been rewarded with one win.
Perhaps worst of all, Neal Cotts has been trotted out to the mound 19 times this season despite his complete inability to retire major league hitters. How many times do you have to smack your head on the same doorway before you start ducking?
MJ: At least Cotts is gone. We still have to deal with Miles every other day. I'm probably wasting too much energy talking about Miles, though, as he's just a part-time player. But I can't help it. He sucks.
I kinda liked Marshall in the rotation, but it seems he can't get the job done in the bullpen. He always struggles in his first inning, and that won't work for a reliever. And that said, Wells has looked far better than I could have possibly imagined. I still don't know if he's for real or not but who cares? He's doing the job right now just fine.
Anyways, swept by the Tigers. White Sox are next. How long till Training Camp?