Final Thoughts on Chicago Sports

Abbreviated Cubs Rants

Lots going on with the Cubs these days. It seems every day inspires another rant.  I could probably go on for 10 pages on each of these topics, but in the interest of time I'll try to be brief.

• DeRosa Traded to St. Louis - Jim Hendry had a chance for a do-over but for whatever reason he couldn't get it done.  Instead, DeRosa lands in hated St. Louis and the Cubs are stuck with tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum for the foreseeable future.  (Who's tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum?  Pick a name out of a hat.)  This one cut deep, but it's not because DeRosa was all that great.  I mean, he was pretty good but the Cubs had nine All-Stars last year and he wasn't one of them.  He was just a solid, likable player who always gave 100% and could play anywhere without a hint of lip.  And now he's in St. Louis.  Yuck.
• Zambrano Blows Up - Big Z had a bit of a meltdown and Phil Rogers suggested that the Cubs should place him on waivers and trade him.  This was such an asinine comment that I don't even know where to begin.  Aside from two games, he's been their best pitcher this year.  And its not like he wilts in high profile situations anymore.  His last two playoff starts were losses but neither were his fault.  Then, a "scientific" web poll on the site suggested that 57% of fans agreed with him.  I call bullshit.  Of their 5,000 "yes" votes, I bet a good two or three thousand were Sox fans just startin shit.  Real Cubs fans don't want him gone.
• All-Stars - All-Star voting ends Thursday, and cubs.com is pushing for Cubs fans to vote in Soriano.  Laughable, to say the least.  One year after sending nine, the Cubs don't deserve any All-Stars this year.  I suppose Lee, Lilly, or maybe even Theriot will get the Cubs lone, default nod; but really nobody should be within 200 miles of St. Louis this year.
• Sam Fuld - Fuld did more tonight than Soriano has done in the last 6 weeks.  Seriously.  And what does that tell you, that some scrappy, fringe major leaguer, fifth outfielder type from AAA shows more spark/heart/hustle than our $136 million dollar supposed superstar.  Pathetic.  I seriously think the Cubs would be better off with a Fox/Johnson/Fuld/Hoffpauir mega-platoon than the Soriano/Bradley combo for the rest of this season. 
• Lou's Eruption - Lou had a rant of his own tonight after a questionable call and got tossed.  It just seemed so tired and rehearsed.  Time to make the donuts...time to yell at an umpire and fire up my team.  Yawn.

Big four game series versus the Brewers starts Thursday.  Sure, it was nice to win 2 of 3 against the Pirates, but it was just the Pirates.  Time to take 3 of 4 against real competition if you want us fans to even think about the postseason.

A Little Mike & Mike on the Cubs

With apologies to the real Mike & Mike, my friend Mike and I engaged in a little email exchange on the Cubs the last few days that sum up the feelings of typical Cubs fans.  It started Monday (after the Cubs swept the Indians) with an email from MikeB:

MB: Boy, I thought we had problems until they came to town and redefined the term “struggling.”  Have you ever seen a bullpen that made you half as eager to pick up a bat and join the fun?  That was a feel-good three days, but I’m not buying it. 

You hit on some good points in your blog, but one thing I haven’t seen mentioned enough, in my opinion, is how much the Cubs have flailed against staggeringly mediocre, and even poor, pitching.  As soon as I see a guy waltz to the mound looking for his first win of the season or sporting a 5+ ERA, I head straight for the booze cabinet.  A few of my most favoritest, very special examples: 

May 23 – The immortal Josh Greer, who now owns a 5.98 ERA for the season, has only one win in 10 starts this season, which he earned by holding the Cubs to one run over 6 2/3.

June 13 – The magnificent Anthony Swarzak stymies the Cubs, blanking them for seven innings.  The Twins immediately ship him to the minors, demonstrating just how impressive the feat is.

June 20 – Rafael Perez strides to the mound sporting an 11.36 ERA, having given up 32 hits in 18 innings.  Result?  A 1-2-3 inning of course – two of them on K’s.

It is truly remarkable that they are still in the hunt for anything given how utterly unwatchable they’ve been for the past month.  If the games I’ve seen are an accurate representation, they’re hitting about .060 with runners in scoring position.  I bet the following joke is making it around National League bullpens right now: 

Q: What the best way to keep the Cubs from scoring?
A: Load the bases with nobody out.

You really can’t say enough about the starting pitching, but even with a healthy Ramirez back in the lineup, Bradley returning to form, and Soto shaking off his sophomore slump, it looks to me like the upside for this team is a first-round sweep at the hands of…whoever.

Before I responded, the Cubs were shut out by the Braves on Monday.

MJ:  Yeah, the team really isn't good at all.  I think they have problems with all pitching, though, not just the crappy guys.  They simply have a problem in the clutch, as seen tonight by 10 hits and 0 runs.  I mean, who does that?  Well, the Cubs do.  All the time it seems.
 
I'm not completely down on their prospects for the season, however.  The division really does suck, and all you have to do is get in.  The rest, as Billy Beane says, is fucking luck.  Ever since the Cardinals won in '06, I can't help but think the regular season is meaningless.  All you have to do is get in.  That's why I wasn't overly excited last fall.  I mean, even with the best record in the NL, I thought they had maybe a 20% chance of winning it all.  They sneak in this year with a 85-77 record, and I'd give them a 10% chance.  It just doesn't matter until October.  And then its simply a matter of how the ball bounces. 
 
Then again, it IS possible to freaking choke.  4 errors in one inning?  7 walks? 

After this email, Gregg served up the walkoff to Detroit on Tuesday.

MB:  Well, that was kind of my point – if they can’t hit the crappy guys…
 
Oh, and we forgot to mention they have a tier 3 closer.

The regular season is still meaningful in that only 25% of the teams get in, unlike some sports.  But I don’t see how this team can do anything beyond maybe win our crappy division, unless they start showing something that’s been conspicuously absent to date.

Another day, another loss.  This time via a Bradley 2-run error and a Marmol bases loaded walk.

MJ:  Man, I wish we had a tier 3 closer.  Yesterday was absolutely brutal.
 
Then tonight, more of the same.  The good news is they're getting hits.  The bad news is they can't bring them home.  At this point, I think I might start advocating some small ball.  Typically, I'm not in favor of wasting outs on sac bunts.  But you watch the leadoff man get on board and end up stranded 20 times in a span of four games makes you rethink your strategy quick.  Get at least one run on the board.

MB:  First off, the Bradley signing was a disaster.  That guy is a loser.  Yes, it was a tough catch, but that ball hit the heel of his glove.  A major league outfielder should catch that ball.  Cost them two runs = ballgame.  How many bonehead plays does he need to make?  I can’t for the life of me figure out why we wouldn’t be better off with DeRosa and an extra $8M to spend.  They should release him to send a message.

MJ:  At first, I wanted no part of Bradley, mostly because of his injury history.  Dude only played even 100 games twice in his career.  And of course, I wasn't looking forward to his lovely personality either, but that was a distant second to his fragility.  But then the more and more I looked at his stats from last year, I talked myself into the signing.  "The Cubs need someone to add an edge, to disrupt the clubhouse."  What a joke.  At least the 3rd year is not guaranteed.  But you're right - thus far its a major bust.
 
I don't know if keeping DeRosa would have prevented all this.  But I do know he would have played every day at Second, Right, or Third, and the team wouldn't have been overexposed with Fontenot and Miles playing every day.  I assumed Fontenot wouldn't be able to keep up last year's pace, but I didn't think he'd fall this far either.  And Miles for $4M?  Are you kidding?

MB:  No doubt!  Miles is a poor man’s Augie Ojeda.

During Thursday's loss...

MJ:  And Who the hell is Ray Raburn?  I saw his stats the other day and knew he was going deep on Gregg.  .225 BA, 4 HRs, 14 RBI.  He's killing them today, too.

MB:  That’s Ryan Raburn.  He’s a journeyman’s journeyman, but the 2009 Cubs are making stars all around the league.

A few parting shots:

Both Sean Marshall and Rich Harden currently have better batting averages than not one, not two, but THREE everyday players.  And that’s not because they’re capturing lightning in a bottle – they’re hitting .235 and .231 respectively. 

In eight starts Randy Wells has compiled a sterling 2.57 ERA…and has been rewarded with one win.

Perhaps worst of all, Neal Cotts has been trotted out to the mound 19 times this season despite his complete inability to retire major league hitters.  How many times do you have to smack your head on the same doorway before you start ducking?

MJ:  At least Cotts is gone.  We still have to deal with Miles every other day.  I'm probably wasting too much energy talking about Miles, though, as he's just a part-time player.  But I can't help it.  He sucks.

I kinda liked Marshall in the rotation, but it seems he can't get the job done in the bullpen.  He always struggles in his first inning, and that won't work for a reliever.  And that said, Wells has looked far better than I could have possibly imagined.  I still don't know if he's for real or not but who cares?  He's doing the job right now just fine.

Anyways, swept by the Tigers.  White Sox are next.  How long till Training Camp?

Random Cubs Notes and what I think of Sammy

Ok, it's been far too long and there's a lot on my mind.  Man, do the 2009 Cubs suck.  Yeah, they won today...yippee!  But frankly, I'm more surprised that they scored 6 runs in a single game than I am that they beat the equally execrable White Sox.  This offense is bad.  Based on their offseason moves, I figured the Cubs might shave three or four wins off last season's 97-win mark.  I didn't think they'd fall this far, though.  Amazingly, they're not even close to being out of the race.  Thank God for crappy divisions.  If they can simply get healthy and have Sori/Soto/Bradley start hitting close to what we expected, they'd be in solid shape to still take the crown.  Lousy bullpen or no.  Now, for the particulars of this bad, bad team:

• Soriano.  I'm to the point where I can't fathom the Cubs winning a world series with Sori hitting leadoff.  Yeah, he looks like a MVP at times, but his cold spells just suck the life out of the whole team, and I firmly believe the back-to-back playoff sweeps can be largely attributed to him alone.  I'm almost to the point where I think a Fox-Hoffpauir platoon would be more productive (and consistent) in Left than Sori. 
• Fukudome.  He's back to his old corkscrew self.  What is it about the first six weeks that make him so awesome?  What is it about the rest of the season that makes him so terrible?  He looks like he couldn't even hit single-A pitching at this point.  Forty million wasted.
• Lee.  Now, for a change of pace, something positive.  Lee's been tearing the cover off the ball for a month now.  Not at his 2005 MVP-caliber pace, but more than solid enough.  If he only had people on base in front of him, then maybe we'd get somewhere.  Oh, and sorry about all that "Hoffpauir should start" talk. 
• Bradley.  He's been a massive bust, but I'm not counting him out just yet.  Seems every free agent the Cubs sign struggles with the day games for a while.  He's showed some signs of snapping out of it a few times, but every time he does he tweaks a groin or something.  If he could.  just. stay. healthy.
• Miles.  Ugh, this guy needs to be DFA'd ASAP.  He's less than worthless.  He can't hit, he can barely field.  I'd just start Andres Blanco every day until Aramis gets back and be done with it.  At least he plays stellar defense. 
• Rotation.  Awesome.  I shudder to think where we'd be without the stellar starting pitching.  And I like the Randy Wells story, but something tells me he'll be coming back to earth and heading back to Iowa before he gets his first win.
• Perry out; Joshua in.  Pure BS-PR move to placate the fan base.  Gotta show the fans that we're doing something.  Number one offense in the league last year.  The veterans should get fingered for this one.  Can't fire them, though.

And now, some thoughts on Sammy Sosa.  Wow.  Shocker.  Ok, so we were only 95%-99% sure he was guilty of using roids, and now we're 100% sure.  Its a shame, really.  But I don't blame Sosa.  It was par-for-the-course in all of MLB and I'm now convinced that at least 60% or 70% of all players were on something.  Baseball not only looked the other way, but they flat-out encouraged it.  You'd be stupid not to do roids.  Seriously.  Millions at stake, everyone else is doing it.  Why wouldn't you?

Now, as for the Hall of Fame.  Sosa is now very, very questionable.  I will say that he shouldn't get in before Bonds or Clemens, two other massive cheaters.  But those guys were undoubtedly the very best of their generation, possibly even without performance enhancers.  Still, 600 homers is an awful lot of homers, and its not like hitting 60 homers three times was exactly commonplace.  If it was, you'd have seen dozens of cheaters doing it.  There was definitely a certain amount of talent that had to be harnessed, plus he had to stay in the lineup (while some cheaters couldn't).  Did steroids teach Sosa how to be patient and take a pitch?  That was really the eye-opener at the time of his ascent.  He always had the massive power, he just couldn't harness it.  Really, though, I don't know if any of these guys belongs in the Hall, but I do think that if you let in known cheats then Sammy should at the very least be considered.  Too many cheaters haven't been caught to leave out the red-handed ones.

And that's that.  Woodie and DeRosa come to town with the Indians next.  Ah, what could have been. j/k.

You'd think I would have learned by now

Randy Wells pitched BRILLIANTLY tonight.  No hitter through 6 2/3, supremely efficient in getting outs, and he left in the 8th leading 5-1.  A Marmol/Gregg meltdown later, it's 5-5 going into extras.  I swear, I called the Gregg Meltdown before he even came into the game.  Alfon-frickin-seca the second.  El Pulpo Dos.  In fact, I like that. I think I'll call him Papadeux from here on out.  Son of a bitch.

This Cubs team gives frustrating a new name.   I think they'd be OK if everyone just pulled their heads out of their asses and played the way they're "supposed" to play.  I'm thinking Bradley, Soto, Lee, Soriano and even Fontenot.  I'm not sure if I like the new Theriot, the one that hits for power.  I like the old one that hit .310 with a .380 OBP and no pop better.  At least at the top of the lineup.  The new one pops up or hits into DPs before you can say boo. 
 
I'm probably most upset with Soto and Bradley, who of course came up lame tonight.  Lee's decline we saw coming for a while, and Soriano's mind-numbing slumps are to be expected.  Not too shocking that Fontenot hasn't kept up his excellent pace as a starter, either.  What is shocking is Soto turning into Rick Wilkins overnight.  I mean, what the hell?  Could he really be a one-year flameout like Wilkins?  His arm is garbage, too. And I figured Bradley would miss a bunch of games to injury or suspension, but I also figured he'd rake when he was in the lineup to a tune of .300/.400/.500, at a minimum (which, even that, is worse than what he did in all three categories in the AL last year).  And don't give me the "it's early" crap.  It's freaking June.
 
What to do to "fix" them?  Well, first off, I'd say get Aramis healthy. Not much they can do about that now, though, as I guess that won't happen until July.  Then I'd say give Soriano a day or two off to clear his head.  Throw Hoff or Fox out there and maybe Sori can shake the stink off and come back hot.  He's less than useless right now.  Lee has showed some signs, so keep trotting him out there.  If he reverts to April form, though, give Hoff some starts at first. 
 
There's also the option of trying Sori at second and going with Fox/Hoff in left to boost the lineup.  No doubt the lineup would be much stronger, but the Sori's D and Fox's D would be so horrible as to probably offset any gain with the bat.  Worth a look, though.
 
Is there anything out there that they can trade for?  I'm not so sure.  I will say this, though.  I wish they signed Orlando Hudson in the offseason, who I was interested in.  Or kept DeRosa, of course.  He would have made the Aramis loss sting a lot less.

Again, why do I bother?

Cubs Staying Above Water

Well, this regular season ain't going exactly as expected, is it?  I never thought they'd run away with it, of course, but its still a bit frustrating watching the team that won 97 games last year just tread water and look so...ordinary.  Lets do a little Three up, Three down.  (apologies to wherever I stole this concept from.)

Three Up

• Soriano - playing about as well as he can play.  Near MVP level.  I shudder to think where they'd be without him.
• Fukudome - playing as well as he did last April, which is All-Star.  He started out a bit shaky in the field, but he's really turned it on of late and he's more than competent in Center now.
• Hoffpauir - he's done a nice job filling in, and with every passing day he makes Cubs fans wonder if they really need Derrek Lee.  Too bad he can't play third.

Three Down

• Bullpen - Pretty much the whole thing sucks. 
• Gregg - he's OK but he's no Kerry Wood, who was no Mariano Rivera.  Average at best.
• Marmol - any time he wants to pull his head out of his ass would be fine with me.  Dominant in spurts.  Horrendous in others.
• Heilman - a couple of horrific appearances hides a few very nice performances.  I think he can be pretty solid, but I still don't like the trade.  The only worthwhile prospect they got from the Pie deal was sent, with Cedeno, for Heilman.  Not good.
• Guzman - He's actually been pretty decent most of the time, and for two innings at a time even.  Give the man a promotion!
• Cotts - blows.  We need a real lefty.
• Patton - Ugh.  Send this Rule 5 guy back to Cincy, or work out a deal and send blondy to the minors.  He's not ready.  Neither is Samardzija.
• Fox - I saw a headline on ESPN, "Fox done?"  Are they serious?  He was done in 2005.  Why he's here now, I'll never know. 
• Ascanio was called up today.  He has OK stuff, I remember.  Let's see if he's figured out how to pitch.
• Injuries:
• Zambrano - I don't mind that he got hurt beating out a bunt.  That's what Carlos does.  Hustle all the time. 
• Aramis - got injured the exact same way as my dad back in 1987.  Sinking liner.  Dive.  Dislocated shoulder.  He probably didn't have to walk home from the park, though.  Hopefully he recovers faster, too.  My dad was out all summer.
• Lee - Honestly, it hurts to say this but we're doing just fine with Hoffpauir at first.  No need to rush back, Derrek.  Take your time.  We need another true corner infielder on the roster, though.
• Bradley - he's back and starting to hit a little, finally.  But he missed some time and the Cubs suffered for it.  Not that him missing time was unexpected.  His middle name is 15-day DL.
• Baserunning - Ryan Theriot has got some Jacque Jones in him.  Ryan Freel, too, it seems.  What is it about the Cubs that makes you forget how to run the bases as soon as you put on Cubbie blue?  Incidentally, I like the Gathright-for-Freel trade.  Freel's not an everyday player, but was pretty versatile and exciting on the Reds a few years ago.  He can play anywhere, too.  I bet he starts getting the majority of starts at third while Aramis is out.  And really, I just can't believe anyone wanted Gathright!

The way I see it, I don't think there's anything wrong with the Cubs that can't be fixed.  They just need to get healthy and find a solid reliever or two.  Oh, and Geovanny Soto needs to really step up.  He's been terrible.  No sense belaboring the point.  Till next time...

Great Time to be a Chicago Sports Fan

The Bulls and Hawks are looking good in the playoffs, the Cubs and Sox are both coming off playoff appearances and off to a decent start.  Oh, and the Bears just traded for a franchise Quarterback, only two seasons removed from a Super Bowl appearance.  Has there been a better time to be a Chicago Sports fan?  I vote no.

• The Bulls are one shot away from being 2-0 on the mighty Celtics in a series almost nobody gave them a chance at winning.  Derrick Rose was an absolute stud in his playoff debut, and he willed the team to victory in game one.  The Jordan comparisons are about five years and two championships premature, but it sure does look like we got a winner in town.  Some more things I like:
• Ben Gordon's 42 point outburst in game 2.  Sure, he only had one rebound and zero assists...but this is exactly why you keep Ben Gordon.  He can just go off and score at will.  He hit five nearly impossible shots down the stretch.  He was NBA Jam "on fire."  Just throw him money and try to move Deng.
• Ty Thomas and Joakim Noah.  Both young big men stepped up in the second half of this season, and I never would have thought that possible back in December.  I absolutely hated this franchise back then.  Now I think the team has a legitmately bright future, even brighter than I thought they had back in 2005, when they were seemingly on the cusp of a breakthrough.
• Brad Miller and John Salmons.  Salmons hasn't been all that great in the playoffs, but what a great trade for John Paxson.  Does he lose points for robbing a nearly bankrupt franchise?  Hell no.  He still had to beat out 20 other teams in that fire sale.
• Vinny Del Negro.  No, he's still not a good coach.  But he's done a decent job lately, and that's far more praise than I ever thought I'd be giving back in December.  He's still making rookie mistakes, like running out of timeouts in game 2 and not figuring out a way to take advantage of Rondo's injury with Rose.  But he's gone from laughingstock to respectable, and he's earned another year, at least. 
• Each of the first two games of this series was a classic.  Just great, great basketball.  Can the rest of the series possibly live up to the greatness of the first two games?  It doesn't seem possible, but I'd like to think so.  Can the Bulls win the series?  Yes, but I'd still pick the Celts if you put a gun to my head.  Yeah, Boston hasn't looked very good on their home court, KG and now Powe are lost, and they just flat out look old.  But Pierce has been an absolute non-factor for them.  Can that possibly continue?  I expect him to step up like Ray Allen did in the second half of game 2.  He does that, and Boston wins the game by a clean dozen.  And the series. 
• I'm not going to pretend to be a huge Blackhawks fan, but I have to admit that playoff hockey is pretty cool.  Maybe next year I will commit to the indian.
• The Cubs are rolling.  I was at Saturday's game, a great win for the Cubs.  Saw Cutler throw a strike to start the game.  Put him in the bullpen!  At least there he has a chance of running into Jeff Samardzija, the best receiver in Chicago.  And hey, hey!  Aramis!!
• Sox?  Quentin keeps hitting like this and it will be hard to keep them out of the postseason.  The more Chicago the merrier.

I can go on all day but there's still work to be done.  And I didn't even mention the draft. 

BEAR DOWN

Cubs-Brewers Never Disappoints

The Cubs wrapped up a 3-game series against the Brewers tonight, and all three games lived up to the hype.  Some thoughts:

• Freaking Kevin Gregg.  He's yet another in the long line of on-and-on-and-on crappy closer acquisitions for the Cubs.  Antonio Alfonseca, Mel Rojas, Dave Smith, Latroy Hawkins, Rick Aguilera.  Name your loser.  He's now given up a run in every appearance, and I put the over-under on him being replaced by Marmol at 1.5 weeks (which means he has about a half a week left).  What can I say about Marmol that hasn't already been said.  He was awesome on Saturday.  He was awesome today.  I love him in the 7th and 8th in high leverage situations, but I also love not having to hide under a blanket and pray for every 9th inning out.  We were spoiled last year with Wood. 
• Is it me, or does it seem like Prince Fielder always strikes out to make the final out in Cubs victories?  Marmol got him Saturday, Gregg got him today.  I recall an epic dual with Wood last September.  I like it.  Although he still scares the crap out of me every time he swings.
• Alfonso Soriano!!  Mr. All-or-Nothing is Mr. Everything right now.  His bomb Saturday had me jumping out of my seat.  His leadoff homer tonight almost seemed pre-ordained.  I swear, I've never flip-flopped as much as I have with my opinion of Soriano.  This week, I'm thinking he's the smartest $136 million that Hendry ever spent.  Next week I'll probably calling for his benching again.  Unreal.
• Milton Bradley had to leave tonight's game.  Every time I watch him run the bases or run down a fly ball, I hold my breath.  Its kind of like watching Rich Harden pitch last year.  Every time he whips his arm back, I feared it was going to break off like Dave Dravecky.  Bradley has got to play 120 games this year for the Cubs to have a chance.
• How about his replacement tonight, Reed Johnson?  Play of the year.  And unlike last year's amazing catch, the Cubs actually held on to win the game.
• Kosuke Fukudome has been raking all week, shutting me and my DFA-calling mouth right up.  Speaking of my stupid judge-a-season-by-watching-five-games analysis, I smell another wild conclusion jump in 3...2...1...
• It's official:  Derrek Lee has warning track power.  Does it even seem possible for him to hit 15 homers this year?  I know its possible, it just doesn't seem like it.

So the Cubs are 4-2 with Jason Marquis and the Rockies coming to town for the home opener.   And imagine if they had Soto healthy or a decent bullpen?  Or more than one hit from Milton Bradley.  Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen. 

Go, Cubs!

Cubs 2009 Preview

I'm not exactly going out on a limb by picking the Cubs to three-peat as Central Division Champions.  Everyone's picking the Cubs this year.  In fact, I have yet to find a single forecast of Cubs doom.  You know what that means, right?  Fifth place, baby!

No, not really.  But tell me you'd be genuinely surprised if the Cubs choke this year.  A hundred years of heartache doesn't go away with two good regular seasons in a row.  So let's continue my spring tradition and go through the roster, comparing it to last year, and see who expects to be better, the same, and worse.

What positions should be significantly better?
Right Field - Milton Bradley, even in 120 games, should be a significant upgrade over Kosuke Fukudome and Mark DeRosa.  He's a switch hitter, he hits for average, he gets on base, he's got pop.  Seriously, if he didn't get hurt all the time he'd be a MVP candidate.  Wouldn't it be something if he stays healthy for a full season?  I'm not counting on it, but a guy can dream, right?  Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that he's not exactly beloved by fans.  He's a major league a-hole.  But the a-hole can hit.

What positions should stay basically the same?
Third Base, First Base, Left Field - The Cubs big three of Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano figure to put up the same numbers they always do.  And those numbers are good.

Catcher - Soto was great last year, and I expect him to more or less repeat those numbers.  Any sophomore slump would probably be offset by being fully healthy after bruising his hand in the second half last year.  There will probably be a slight dropoff with the backup catcher, in moving from Blanco to Koyie Hill.  Probably not enough to make a difference, though.

Shortstop - Theriot more or less had a career year, so I wouldn't be shocked if he dropped some.  That said, he hit .412 this spring and he's always been patient so I think he's capable of repeating his 2008 numbers. 

Starting Rotation - Dempster will probably be a little worse, but Zambrano will probably be a little better.  Lilly will be fine and Marshall should at least accomplish what Marquis did.  Harden will be in and out of the rotation and he's a huge question mark, but that's just the territory that is Rich Harden.  Since they released Gaudin today and sent Samardzija to the minors, I'm not sure who's next in line to start.  Heilman, maybe?  If anyone's lost for a significant amount of time, Hendry would probably have to pursue a trade.  I've got some concerns, but if they stay healthy they should be fine.

What positions will probably be worse?
Second Base - If Fontenot hits as a full-timer like he did as a part-timer, then there will be no problem in losing DeRosa.  Can the little man keep it up, though?  I'd be happy with .285 and a dozen bombs, even though on paper he looks like he might actually be able to repeat DeRosa's numbers.  But I'm expecting a significant downgrade.

Center Field - Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds were stalwarts last year.  Completely out of nowhere, they combined for awesome numbers that would have led NL Centerfielders in a number of categories.  Johnson should remain solid, but can Fukudome come even remotely close to picking up the slack left by Edmonds?  I seriously doubt it.  Nothing I've seen this spring suggests that he can play major league baseball.  I hope I'm wrong.  If he hits half as well as he did the first six weeks of last season, he'll be fine.  But if I were a betting man, I'd put money on DFA (or a buyout) by June 1st.  At that point Joey Gathright will get the starts, and I'll start hitting the bottle.

Bullpen - The bullpen was solid last year, and I would think that they should be solid this year.  But you can't ignore that Gregg is a defnite downgrade from Wood.  And Vizcaino is a total stroke that's only here because of his salary.  Guzman and Patten are only here because they can't be sent down.  And Cotts will have "nothing special" on his tombstone.  Really, it's Marmol and Gregg and a bunch of mediocre or worse guys.  This could very well be a disaster.  My fingers will never be un-crossed.

Bench - Instead of Ward, Fontenot, Cedeno, Blanco, and Johnson/Edmonds; you've got Hoffpauir, Miles, Hill, Gathright, and Johnson/Fukudome.  They have no true third base backup, and a true DH as your only real lumber.  I like Micah's bat, but he's brutal with the leather.  Really, the entire bench is worse than last year, although I wouldn't exactly call the loss huge.  Still, a downgrade is a downgrade.

So despite all the downgrades, they've got one massive upgrade and the core of the team is in tact.  They stay healthy, they win the division by five or more games.  I just don't think 97 wins will happen again.  Let's give them 92 and pray that none of the also-rans get hot. 

Go, Cubs!

Shock and Awe: Bears Trade for Cutler

It's official, the Bears got Jay Cutler from Denver for Kyle Orton, two first rounders, and a third rounder.  Denver's also sending a 5th rounder back.  They certainly gave up a lot, but I love this deal for the Bears.  A franchise QB is coming to a team that has never had one.  That's the bottom line.  I like Kyle, and you can win with Kyle.  But he's maybe the 15th best QB in football.  He *might* some day be as good as 10th or 12th best in the league.  Cutler's already top seven.  He might be top three.  That's just unfathomable to this Bears fan.  (See this post for more reasons why I prefer Cutler to Orton.)

Angelo has got to be doubly excited today.  Not only has he thrown it in all the naysayer's faces, (it will NEVER happen!), but now he doesn't have to pay a number one draft pick for two whole years!!!  Jerry hates throwing big money at unproven players.  Now he just has to pay Jay.  And he's got an extra fifth rounder, where he thrives!  And really, the Bears also have that extra 3rd round compensatory pick (for losing Berrian to free agency) so the Bears will still have a full slate draft picks this season.  They've got enough picks to find a starting caliber WR and Safety.

Oh, and the Bears picked up the Pace today in signing Orlando.  As far as I'm concerned, the line is now set.  They've got Pace, Chris Williams (aka Baby Huey), Kevn Shaffer (a solid former Brown that started 50 games), and Omiyale.  The line should be at least as good as last year, when they were "solid against everybody not named Jared Allen." 

They really should look into signing Torry Holt.  Boldin is pretty much out of the question now because the Bears have nothing left to trade.  Boldin's not going unless they get a first rounder in return, in addition to players.  Holt isn't elite anymore, but he should be able to bridge the gap while the young guys get up to speed.  And really, he's only 32 and still figures to be better than anyone the Bears have got now.

This has got to be the most exciting day in Bears offseason history.  Without really doing any research, I'd say the most exciting Bears pickups in the free agency era were:

• Bryan Cox
• Muhsin Muhammad (via trade)
• Adewale Ogunleye (via trade)

None of these guys really lived up to our hopes, but you have to admit that you were awfully excited when they showed up in Lake Forest.  The Bears have picked up some other solid guys in that timeframe, like John Tait and Ruben Brown.  But nobody gets excited over linemen.  Really, I'd say that list is about it for exciting moves.  (And no, I was NOT excited when they picked up Rick Mirer.) 

In fact, Cutler might be the most exciting pickup in Chicago Sports history.  This could be a franchise changer.  Does anything else come close?  Again, no research.  This is off the top of my head, and really only covers the last 25 years or so.  But I remember these moves making a stir.

Cubs
Alfonso Soriano
Derrek Lee
(The Nomar Garciaparra, Rich Harden, and Aramis Ramirez & Kenny Lofton trades created quite a stir, but they were in-season and I'm going to ignore those for the moment or else I'll be here all day. )

Sox
Albert Belle
David Wells
Jim Thome

Bulls
Dennis Rodman
Ben Wallace

Oh yeah, the Cutler move blows all these other moves away. It just doesn't compare.  Even if he ends up not being the second coming, today the Bears are winners.  I still can't believe it.

BEAR DOWN.

Cubs Making Roster Decisions

The Cubs made a few announcements in the last two days worth commenting on. 

• Kevin Gregg has won the closer job.  I like this move.  Gregg has experience closing and hasn't given up a single run this spring.  Carlos Marmol, while a much better pitcher than Gregg, can better serve the team in the 7th and 8th innings, getting out of jams and being the bridge to the 9th.  If you can't get out of the 7th, there's nothing to save in the 9th.  Smart move by Lou, although I must say it does kind of suck for Marmol personally.  Closers get the big bucks.
• The Cubs released Paul Bako.  It was a curious move to replace the dependable backup backstop Henry Blanco for the aging and less dependable Bako.  Especially since signing Bako was going to save only a half a mil in payroll.  For that piddly scratch, you might as well have kept Hank White, the ultimate backup.  Now the job falls to the dangly-fingererd Koyie Hill.  He hasn't come within spitting distance the Mendoza line in the majors, but since getting his appendages restored, he's found his stroke in the minors.  So who knows, maybe he can hit his weight this year and I won't have to pine for Blanco on Soto's off days. 
• Finally, the Cubs are retiring number 31 in honor of both Fergie Jenkins and Greg Maddux.  300 Cubs wins on the nose, between the two.  Classy move by the organization. 

One other thing.  I was listening to The Afternoon Saloon the other day, and Harry opined that should Derrek Lee get off to a terrible start, maybe Micah Hoffpauir should get increased playing time at first base.  Bruce Levine nearly laughed his way back from Mesa.  (Harry pointed to a recent Trib article where 20 anonymous Cubs suggested Hoffpauir is one of the best hitters on the team -- better than Lee even).  I happen to think its not a completely far-fetched idea.   I mean, I'd give Lee a full six or eight weeks before I'd even consider benching him for even a day -- but I've got to admit that I'm intrigued.  Lee was pretty horrible last season.  Only 12 home runs after May 1st; just three homers after the break.  He led the league in double plays.  With all the RBI opportunities he had with Theriot setting the table, to muster only 90 knocked in is pretty weak.  Hoffpauir, on the other hand, won the PCL MVP by mashing his way to Barry Bonds numbers, and all he's done is hit for the last 15 months.  No, at 29 he's not exactly the next Pujols or anything, but its not inconceivable that he'd hit ten more HRs this year with 25 more RBI than Lee, given 500 at-bats.  I guess the real question is does that offensive gain outweigh the tremendous loss on defense.  Hoffpauir is a frickin statue with a glove. 

I guess its stupid to even speculate.  Hoffpauir ain't taking over for Lee any more than I am.  Our best bet to see Micah is during Bradley and Soriano's inevitable trips to the DL. 

Why I like the WBC

The World Baseball Classic is upon us, and I have to say...I'm a fan.  A lot of people rag on the WBC.  Sportswriters, fans, players, GMs, managers, radio hosts, bloggers.... everybody has an opinion.  And from what I gather, the opinion is near universal.  The WBC sucks.  Don't count me in that group.

Before I tell you why I like it, let me quickly summarize why people hate it:

• They don't want players on their favorite teams to get hurt
• March is for laid back spring training, not playoff atmosphere baseball (aka. Its not the way we've always done it.)
• Players should be concentrating on getting ready for the season, not overextending themselves
• USA players aren't ready, other countries are in mid-season form.
• It's meaningless

That about covers it, right?  Well, here's a point by point rebuttal.

• Players getting hurt?  Of course I don't want players to get hurt, but I'd be more pissed if they got hurt in a meaningless Spring Training game.  Every time you lace them up, you risk injury.  You want them to avoid injury, have them sit in a hyperbaric chamber all day. 
• People like to ramp up to postseason quality play.  They like to sit back and watch (or evaluate) players in the preseason without getting overly invested in the outcome.  I don't get this one.  Who doesn't like a playoff atmosphere?  Preseason is great for naps and little else.  WBC gets me on the edge of my seat.  I care about the USA.  I care about Cubs on foreign teams.  Even Fukudome.
• Again, I'm not asking them to do much more than they would in a preseason game.  Just play freaking baseball.  We're talking million-dollar athletes here.  Suck it up.  You can handle starting spring training a week early.
• Yeah, this kind of sucks from USA standpoint.  But it's not all about USA, you know.  The tournament could be done in November, but players are knee-deep in vacation in November and probably wouldn't like that either.  They could do it at the All-Star break, but all non-participants would have 2-3 weeks off.  There's no perfect answer here so lets leave it where it is.
• It's FAR from meaningless.  Spring Training is meaningless.  Most regular season games?  Meaningless.  (At least individually.  Even the best teams lose 50 games in a given year.  You lose two in the WBC and you're out. )  This is a notch below playoffs, baby.  You can see the enthusiasm in watching the players.  If it means something to them, it means something to me.  And besides, its not like my favorite MLB team has a chance at ever winning anything.  At least here I have a chance at the ultimate reward:  rooting for a champion.

So I watch.  And I love it.

Cubs Spring Training 2009 Preview

The Cubs are heavy favorites to win their third straight Central Division crown, and I firmly believe that all they have to do to make the playoffs is merely stay healthy.  They avoid injury, and they should find themselves playing in October.  What happens when they get there is a long way off, and I'm not going to address that in this post.  I'm trying to stay positive.

What I am going to address is the questions of Spring Training.  Despite the lofy predictions, they do have a few questions to answer.

Who's starting at Second and Center?

At this point, its slated to be a platoon between Miles and Fontenot at second; Johnson and Fukudome in Center.  In a perfect world, Fontenot would continue to hit like he did in a part time role last year, and Miles would be relegated to the bench.  Also in that perfect world, Fukudome would sieze the Center Field job and live up to his contract.  Those two things happen, and there'll be nothing wrong with the lineup.  As it stands now, though, they have a severe lack of right-handedness on the bench.  When Johnson and Miles start, the entire bench will be lefty.  That's not good.  Further, who backs up Ramirez?  What happens if Soriano or Bradley go down for an extended time?  Sure would be nice to have a guy like Mark DeRosa around.  I'm just saying.

Who's the fifth starter?  For that matter, who's fourth when Harden's on the shelf?

The candidates are Marshall, Heilman, Samardzija, and Gaudin.  Marshall is solid, though I wouldn't exactly be excited to see him in the rotation all season.  He's better as a swing man.  Start a few, relieve a few.  Heilman's former top prospect, and he's had success in the pen.  He might be worth a flyer in the rotation as I believe he has more upside than Marshall.  From what I've seen, the Shark's repetoire isn't very deep; he seems better suited for the pen.  And Gaudin is pretty much just filler for when disaster strikes.  So I'd go with Heilman to start the season; Marshall to fill in when Harden inevitably gets injured.  (And pray that Z's current shoulder problem isn't serious.) 

What's the lineup?

Here's what I'd do:

Fontenot/Johnson
Lee
Bradley
Ramirez
Soriano
Soto
Fukudome/Miles
Theriot

You'd have a high OBP guy up top, an overgrown singles hitter second; alternating lefties and righties; and some OBP guys at the bottom to turn the lineup over.  I like it.  I like it a lot.  Here's what Lou will probably do, though.

Soriano
Theriot
Lee
Bradley
Ramirez
Soto
Fukudome
Fontenot

I don't really like it.  Other than Bradley, its pretty much the same lineup that hasn't hit in October the last two years.  You've GOT to get Soriano out of that leadoff spot.  If he's not hot, he's a strikeout machine.  And that just kills you in a short series.  I can't talk about this any more.  I'm getting pissed off.

Go, Cubs.  Just go.

Why A-Rod didn't ruin baseball for me

The MAJOR story over the last few days is the revelation that Alex Rodriguez failed the "anonymous" drug test back in 2003.  Setting aside the fact that it was supposed to be anonymous, and also ignoring his emmy-worthy apology; let's answer the most important question.  How does it affect me? 

Truth is, it doesn't affect me much at all.  I'm a little disappointed that the best, most talented, and a supposedly clean player in the game was found to have been juicing; but its not going to reduce my love for the game one iota.  He tested positive before the current testing policy was in place, and anyone that tested positive before that was merely acting on behalf of their own self-interests.  He's juicing.  He's making millions.  He's not paying for it.  Why shouldn't I?  If half the people were doing it, its no worse than speeding on the expressway.  Just know that if you get caught, you have to pay the price.  If he's willing to gamble, so be it.

And what is the price?  If you ask me, it should start and stop with public humiliation.  Like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens before him, everybody now knows that he cheated.  Everybody knows that any records set were dubious at best.  They've all been humiliated.  Were all three of those guys Hall of Famers before they cheated?  Absolutely.  First ballot even.  Should we wipe their records or asterisk their plaques (should the writers vote them in)?  Hell no.  The 1990s should be regarded as just another era of baseball.  The opposite of the deadball era, if you will.  Put an exhibit in the museum about baseball from 1994-2003.  Show the good times.  Braves dominance.  Marlins-Indians game 7.  Yankees titles.  Luis Gonzalez.  Then show the bad.  Loop a video of players testifying before congress.  Print out all 600 pages of the Mitchell Report.  Show McGwire and Sosa alternately loved and then scorned.  Put in Barry's ball with the branded asterisk on it.  Luis Gonzalez. 

Then when you're in the Hall itself, when people see Barry's plaque, they'll see his late career cartoonish numbers that made a mockery of the record books.  People will remember.  They'll picture in their minds who the real record holders should be.  That's fine. 

Let's move on with life and get on with Spring Training.  Hate the player if you will, but love the game.  I'm telling you, there's plenty more to get upset over than whether or not a baseball hero took performance enhancing drugs.  The war.  The economy.  A team that hasn't won in a century winning 97 games in the regular season before getting swept out of the first round.  Now that's pain.

Cubs send Hill, Weurtz packing

Hendry's makeover of the team that got swept in consecutive division series continues.  Today, Rich Hill and Mike Wuertz were traded to Baltimore and Oakland, respectively.  I said it before and I'll say it again.  I like Hendry's thinking.  Standing pat never works.  I'm just not overly enamored by what he's been getting back in return for his former prized possessions. 

Let's put it this way, what do you think Hendry could have gotten for Hill and Pie exactly one year ago today?  Johan Santana maybe?  Brian Roberts for sure.  The young Cubs were thought of that highly.

Hill was a maddening prospect, but he really seemed to figure things out in the second half of 2006.  In 2007, he was even better.  A 26-year-old lefty with a 119 ERA+ and 8.5 Ks per 9 innings?  Not to mention a devastating curveball that made scouts drool.  He was looking like a solid #2 for the next decade.  Too bad he went all Steve Blass in 2008.  Dude just stopped throwing strikes.  Spent the year in the minors and the winter in Mexico and never had an outing with less than a walk per inning.  That's not going to get it done in the majors.  Hill said after the season that his back was the problem, not his head.  I'm not sure if I believe him, but who the hell am I?  I'm not in his head (or his back).  I just know that his fragile psyche wasn't going to play well in Lou Piniella's clubhouse. 

Hill's stock has fallen so far that all they could get for him is a PTBNL.  I'm guessing its not Roberts.

Wuertz was a solid middle reliever for five years and had the occasional stretch of dominance.  I kind of felt he was underappreciated around here and one look at his numbers would suggest as much.  Five years of good to very good numbers.  Still, he's not exactly Marmol and two years down the road we won't exactly be lamenting the loss of Michael Wuertz.  The Cubs got two mediocre propects from Oakland who's stars have faded somewhat.  Rich Robnett and Justin Sellers.  Note those names because you'll probably never hear from them again, though you never know.

Oh, and did I mention the Cubs signed Paul Bako the other day?  Yeah.  It's a "meh" move if there ever was one.

Till next time...pitchers and catchers...pitchers and catchers.

The Super Bowl and The Boss

Last year around this time I gave some predictions on what Tom Petty might perform at halftime of the Super Bowl.  This year, Bruce Springsteen is playing and I have to say -- I don't get it.  Sure, I think he's a perfectly fine choice and understand why he was picked, and I appreciate his musical legacy.  But I never understood the obsession some people have with The Boss.  As a music obsessed person myself, my life has always had a soundtrack.  If I'm not actually listening to something, I'm hearing something in the foggy depths of my noggin.  Some background tune to go along with my inner monologue.  Since I'm thinking about Bruce at the moment, perhaps not ironically that song right now is "The River".  Pretty decent track, like a lot of Springsteen songs.  But I just can't get that nagging feeling out of my head that he's one of the most overrated artists of all time. 

Don't get me wrong, I like Springsteen.  I actually own his Greatest Hits and Born in the U.S.A.  Yeah, that makes me one of those guys -- stereotypical casual listener.  Those two albums are more than enough to satisfy any and all Bruce cravings I might have.  When I read about people seeing Bruce 50 or 60 times, though, and I hear them pontificate about how sublime the version of song X  he played at venue X in New Jersey in 1982 was ... my brow furrows and I wrinkle my nose like somebody cut one.  Really?  I just don't get it.  To me, he's a decent songwriter fronting a good bar band.  That's it.  To each his own, I guess.

I suppose here is where a Bruce disciple would say, "you have to see him live to understand."  That may be true, but every time I see a review of his concerts, they show a setlist and I recognize maybe five songs out of a three hour show.  I'm a casual fan, and if I'm paying money to see Bruce I want to hear the hits.  Two and a half hours of deep cuts wouldn't convert me. 

I guess I can appreciate the fanaticism.  There's a few artists/bands that I've seen 8 or 10 times, and when I see them I want to hear anything but the hits.  And yeah, I fully acknowledge that Bruce's live shows are a hundred times more fulfilling than the fifth time you've seen an Ozzy show (someone I've happened to see probably a dozen times now).  Ozzy has recorded probably 150 songs in his 40 year career, yet he picks 13 songs out of a pool of maybe 15 every summer on Ozzfest.  </snore>  I'd give my pinky toe to hear "Diary of a Madman" in its entirety.

Anyways, prediction time.  I think Pittsburgh is going to win the game, though its a close call and I'll be rooting for Arizona.  The Cardinals Cinderella Story can't continue for a fourth straight week, can it?  Pittsburgh's defense is too good.  Why am I rooting for the Cardinals?  Fresh blood.  The most downtrodden of downtrodden NFL franchises can use a break.  That said, if they end up winning then the Cubs will lose another peer in their lonely little class of lifetime losers.  First the Red Sox, then the White Sox...now the Chicago/St. Louis/Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals?  The only other losers to keep the Cubs company would be the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns. Maybe I should be rooting for the Steelers. 

Oh, and for Bruce -- "Born to Run," "Dancing in the Dark," some random deep cut and that new song about walking on dreams.  Done and done.