Final Thoughts on Chicago Sports

Cubs sign Dempster; go after Teahen?

The Cubs signed Dempster to a 4-year deal worth $52 million dollars.  It's a lot of money for a guy who's only had one good year in the last three, but overall I think its a pretty good deal.  His underlying stats suggest his improvement last year was for real.  (He went 17-6 with a 2.89 ERA)  But, as the saying goes, there's a reason they call them "career years."  Is he likely to repeat?  No, probably not.  But he's a pretty good bet to put up Ted Lilly numbers, which is to say 15 wins with a 3.90 or so ERA.  He does that three of the next four, and I'm happy. 

Like the move last week killed the Kerry Wood era, this move ends an era that never started.  The Jake Peavy era.  Would I prefer Jake Peavy to Ryan Dempster?  Sure.  But it wasn't Peavy or Dempster.  To get Peavy, the Cubs would have had to trade at least three, possibly four prospects (likely Marshall, Pie, Vitters, and another); plus Peavy is due to make $10 million more over the life of the contract.  So when you think of the cost of four prospects and an additional 10 million, the Cubs probably made the right choice. 

And besides, he's got work to do this year.  Maybe this time he'll have 10 walks in the playoff opener! Yeah, I'm still bitter.

In other news, the Cubs are looking to acquire Mark Teahen from the Royals.  I don't know about that one (and that's not even knowing who they'd have to give up -- though with the Royals track record its probably not much).  Teahen had an awfully good age-25 year in 2006, but since then he's been very mediocre.  (No power in 2007, Neifi-esque in 2008.)  Would it be out of the question for him to rebound to 2006 form in his age 27 season, ala Aramis Ramirez?  Not at all.  But some people do peak early; look at Austin Kearns.  He might be worth a look, but I wouldn't give up more than a low-A prospect for him.  And I would by no means hand him the right field job.  DeRosa's probably a better bet.

Cubs Offseason: Gregg in, Wood out

The Cubs made a trade today, acquiring closer Kevin Gregg from the Marlins for minor leaguer Jose Ceda.  Ceda is a solid, young "B+" type of pitching prospect.  Big kid, live arm, but still a year or two away and nothing more than your typical crapshoot for major league success.  So what about Gregg?  Well...while he had 29 saves last year, he also blew a league-leading nine.  (Including this one.)  Supposedly he was hurt, though, for his lousy stretch and his monthly numbers lend that notion some creedence.  His ERA was sub 2.00 for five out of six months, while his ERA in August was over 10.00.  (The anti-Bob Howry, if you will.)  After getting surgery, he's a decent bet to rebound.  And besides, with Marmol around, Gregg won't necessarily be the closer anyways and might fill the Howry role.  Solid move by Hendry.

What this also does, though, is signal the end of Kerry Wood's career as a Cub, and that's a pretty sad thought for Cubs fans.  Wood was never what he was supposed to be, but when he was on he was pretty damn electric.  I can't believe it's been over 10 years since he struck out 20 on that gray day in May, 1998.  (Best.  Game.  Ever.)  Of course, he was only healthy for about six of those seasons, but still.  He was a class act and I'll miss him.

In other Cubs news, supposedly the Cubs are still alive in the Jake Peavy talks.  San Diego is having a fire sale, and the Cubs are one of two teams on the radar for Peavy.  (Atlanta's the other, and supposedly they have the upper hand as of this writing.)  Would I want Peavy on the Cubs?  Hell yeah.  Who wouldn't want an under-30, if slightly injury-prone, perennial Cy Young candidate?  He'd instantly be the best pitcher on the staff, and that's really saying something.  The only downside is that a trade for Jake would mean the end of Ryan Dempster in Chicago, and the bearded Canadian proved to be a valuable guy to have around the last few years. 

Elsewhere on the diamond, the only position I can foresee any real upgrade this offseason is Right Field.  (Fukudome and Johnson would platoon in Center.) Some are pining for Bobby Abreu, but I don't know.  His career numbers are fantastic, and he's left-handed (which the Cubs desperately covet.)  But every Phillie fan on the planet would also tell you that he's a "empty stat" kind of guy that chokes under pressure.  So with that in mind, I guess he would fit in nicely.  Furcal, too.  Yeah, I'm still bitter.

Finally, it's award season.  As expected Soto won rookie-of-the-year and Big Z earned a Silver Slugger.  Nothing shocking there, congrats to both for the well-deserved awards.  And Lou Piniella won manager-of-the-year.  It's gotta be a little embarassing to collect a trophy after the total disaster that was the postseason, but he's not a bad choice considering the flawed election process.   Congrats to Lou!

World Series, Tampa, and the Cubs

Excuse me for putting "the Cubs" and "World Series" in the same sentence.  That'll never happen, unless we're on the eve of an apocalypse.  But Mike Downey had a column today that was a bitchslap reminder of what could have been.  A Tampa-vs-Cubs "Alternate Universe" World Series.  It's a hackey thing to write but something I was admittedly kicking around myself as a blog topic.  Check out his work here, even though the article itself isn't particularly inspiring. 

But I've been thinking over the last ten days or so, "what could have been?"  Since the Cubs crapped themselves and were eliminated so long ago, it's hard to remember that, "oh yeah, this was the year and the Cubs should still be playing right now."  How different would these weeks and days have been for me and the rest of the city.  I'll tell you what, it would have been absolutely off the hook.  The electricity in the ballpark (and the rest of the city for that matter) would have been all-consuming.  Everything would have been viewed as if through Cubbie Blue goggles.  (at least by Cubs fans)

Now, of course, that will never happen.  Not the Cubs actually making the world series, mind you, but the reaction of the city.  I seriously think this turn of events will seriously quell Cubbie Fever for a long time.  Remember the atmosphere of those midseason series at Wrigley, in particular the games against the Brewers, the ones that felt like playoff games?  I don't envision that party coming around for a long time.  It just doesn't matter until you actually get to the postseason.  No sense getting all excited about June victories with the inevitable disaster looming in October. 

*******

I didn't watch more than 10 seconds of the NLCS this year.  I was too disgusted.  The only extended bit of ALCS I caught was the last three innings of game 7, where Tampa clinched it.  I was rooting for Tampa to win, simply because they were the likable underdog and Boston needs to be knocked down a peg.  But after they actually won, I quickly changed my mind.  I carried no animosity for the awesome, young, Tampa players; but the "fans" drove me crazy.  Who the hell are these people?  Where have they been all year (let alone the last crappy ten years)?  These d-bags don't know how lucky they are.  These Johnny-come-latelies in their brand new Upton jerseys, waving their fingers saying "we're number one!"  Watching the jumbotron to learn when to clank their gay-ass cowbells. 

Then last night, I watched game one.  Shortly after I turned it on, Tampa hit a homer.  I expected the Johnnies to go nuts, but...they didn't.  They were strangely muted.  I mean, they cheered, but they cheered like Cubs fans cheer when a pitcher lays down a good sac bunt.  Just...weird.  Then watching the rest of the game was just an odd experience all around.  First of all, that dome has by far the ugliest looking fake grass in the league.  My HD was begging me to change the channel.  With the dim shadows and the weird Philly-Tampa matchup, not to mention the cowbell-clanging muted dorks, it felt like I was watching an exhibition game in Japan.  All the while, Buck and McCarver were announcing the game with as much enthusiasm as terminally ill crape-hangers.  This is NOT the World Series I wanted.  This is not the World Series that America wanted. 

Tampa just doesn't have many fans.  There might be 2,000 people (at most) who have been actually paying attention the last ten years and are serious-enough baseball fans to would truly appreciate and feel liberated if their team won this World Series.  The rest are a bunch of Johnny Cakes that would be just as excited seeing the fishmonger win on Survivor. 

It isn't fair. 

Go Phillies!  Damn right it's sour grapes.

Holy Crap! Bears are alone in first place!

While I was fuming over the Cubs over the past week, the Bears thoroughly whipped the Lions and took sole possession of first place in the NFC North.  While it was an impressive win, we must remember that it was Detroit.  Man, they're bad.  They look as bad as any Lions team I've ever seen.  Scratch that, any football team that I've ever seen - including D-III.  They looked almost as bad as the Cubs against L.A.  (Damn it!  You see where my mind is at, still. Back to the Bears.)

So the Bears are in first place.  Here's what has impressed me the most:

• Matt Forte - Clearly the rookie RB is a massive upgrade over last year.  Not only does he hit the holes with authority, he catches the ball and rarely misses a block.  He's a true find for Jerry Angelo and I expect him to be a fixture in the backfield for the next three years.  (Sadly, runningbacks don't age well at all.)
• Kyle Orton - Last year and all offseason, I was screaming for Orton.  Give him a chance!  After two weeks this year, I wanted a mulligan.  Now he has seven TDs in his last three games and I'm telling everyone I knew it all along.  I still think they should draft a QB high next year, but they won't have to rush him into the lineup and they might be able to live with Kyle under center for another year or two.  (Rookie QBs almost never work and are often better served by sitting for a year.)  But then again, he might pull a Derek Anderson and start sucking.  Let's just keep evaluating Kyle for the next 11 games and see where we stand in January.
• The Receivers - with solid Quarterbacking comes solid receiving.  There still aren't any Pro Bowlers in this group, and I highly doubt that any of the Bears would start for more than a handful of teams.  But Lloyd, Hester, and company aren't the worst group of receivers we've ever had.  Bernard who?
• The Offensive Line - Wow, it doesn't completely suck.  Orton was under constant pressure against the Eagles, but every QB is under pressure against them.  Other than that game, they've done a pretty solid job - far better than I could have ever imagined.  And just wait till Chris Williams is ready!  (Please note the sarcasm in that last statement.)
• The Defensive Line - If you had told me that Tommie Harris would be a complete no-show and that the line would still be among the strongest units on the team, I'd have thought you were crazy.  But Dusty Dvoracek, Marcus Harrison, and Israel Idonije have all done a tremendous job stuffing the run and getting to the passer.  Imagine if Harris was playing!  (No sarcasm there.)
• The Secondary - Kevin Payne and Mike Brown have been great.  Tillman was a beast against the Lions.  Vasher hasn't done much, but he hasn't been bad either.  Solid group.

This week the Bears face the Falcons at the Georgia Dome.  They, too, are a surprise team in the NFC this season - led by former NIU runningback Michael "The Burner" Turner and rookie QB Matt Ryan (who, it turns out, may be an exception to the rookie QB rule).  I heard today somewhere that this is a bad matchup for the Bears.  (I read/listen to so much content, it's hard to keep track of it all.  50-50 shot that I heard it on ESPN.)  Anyways, bad matchup?  Really?  Last I checked, only Jonathon Stewart had any success on this group.  Everyone else got stuffed like a burrito.  Yes, the Falcons beat Aaron Rodgers and the suddenly crappy Green Bay defense at Lambeau - but they haven't seen a powerhouse like Kyle Orton and the CHICAGO BEARS yet, either.  I'll go with the Bears in a tight one.  17-13.

BEAR DOWN.

The C stands for Choke

There's no other way to say it, they friggin' choked.  The Cubs dropped a giant turd in the 2008 punch bowl, and all memories of this "magical" season have pretty much gone right down the crapper.  It's so pathetic that I don't even know where to start.

I can't blame Jim Hendry.  What more could he have done?  It wasn't him making the errors.  I can't fault Lou Piniella much.  He made a few minor head scratchers but he certainly didn't go 1-for-14 either.  The players just botched it.  I think it was in their head.  They know about the history.  They're asked about it every single day.  They all wanted to be on the team that finally won a championship for this city.  So that's on their mind with every swing; every grounder.  They don't just play baseball.  Seriously, the team needs dumb (yet also good) players that simply "see ball, hit ball".  1969?  That was before I was born.  2003?  Don't know nothin' about it; I was in Des Moines.  2008?  Uh, what year is it again?

The real problem is wondering where the hell do they go from here.  I mean, what moves can Jim Hendry make to make the team better?  Get a reliable, every day, left-handed bat?  I guess.  A dependable middle reliever?  Would either of those additions made a difference this postseason?  Not a chance.  Some might say "blow it up."  I have a hard time agreeing with that.  They won 97 games.  This is/was the best Cubs team of my lifetime.  They're good if not great at every position.  They're deep.   They just need to NOT FUCKING CHOKE when they get to the playoffs. 

And what happens next year when (if) the Cubs have a 20-game lead in August?  Will it really matter?  Why should I get excited about regular season wins?  Am I supposed to jump up and down and spray champagne on my neighbors when they win the Central again?  It won't mean anything.  Its all bullshit unless they win a title.  That's all there is to it. 

I don't know, maybe I'm looking at this all wrong.  I should just throw all that fancy "title" talk out the window.  I should just know that it will never happen, so why should I torture myself?  The journey is the reward.    What's great about Lord of the Rings isn't the climax or the ending, it's the 2,000 "magical" pages that precede it.  Cubs win on a walkoff in June?  Party time.  Just sit down, shut up, and drink my beer with a smile on my face.  That's the ONLY reward I'm ever going to get.

Oh, and through all this I've found a new hatred for the White Sox.  A little background.  I've NEVER hated on the Sox.  The only time that I've ever rooted against them is when they are playing the Cubs.  I really don't care about the South Siders.  They're in a different league, playing against different competition.  I was happy for them in 2005, and I was happy for them when they won game 163 against the Twins last week.  Why?  Because when it doesn't affect the Cubs, I root for my city.  Call me crazy.  But then, Friday happened.  I listened to Waddle and Silvy on ESPN 1000 for a few hours, and a bunch Cubs fans were calling to talk about Game 2.  Typical venting, whining, anger, etc.  Sox fans were calling in, too.  Did they want to talk about their own Game 1 loss?  Did they want to talk about Beuhrle and Game 2?  Hell no, they were giddy as little school girls because of the Cubs collapse.  Seriously.  They could care less about the Sox.  It wasn't just one d-bag either.  There was a whole bunch of them.  Then Sunday, right after the Sox won game 3 and staved off elimination for one day...I got a text from a Sox fan  congratulating the Cubs on their magical season with the best record in baseball.  What a bunch of stereotypical, wife-beating, inferiority complex-wearin' losers.  Worry about your own god-damned team.  I heard from one Sox fan that more or less sent condolences, but other than that it was nothing but South Siders rubbing it in.  So from now on - fuck 'em.  I let out a little cheer when they lost to the Rays today.  Call me the asshole.

Or just call the Cubs the assholes.  That's what I've been doing for three days.

Dodgers 2, Cubs Zip

I was actually watching the end of the VP debate tonight (with the start of the game recording) when my phone started buzzing with text messages.  Shortly thereafter, my cell and my house phone started ringing.  I heard the MSN chat window dinging across the room.  Something happened.  Maybe good, probably bad.  Something happened.  So I switched off the debate and started watching the game.  First inning - not bad.  Nice to see the crowd in to it.  Soriano stranded.  No biggie.  Then the 2nd inning happened.  And now I read (and understood) the text messages:

• It's going to be a long night
• Head cases
• Things are going swimmingly
• WHAT THE F?
• Embarrassing.  I might need to move to another town.
• It's over
• Now we know why Atlanta fans were so indifferent in the NLDS.  Wake me when the NLCS starts.

And a whole lot more just like it.  Shell-shocked.  Z actually wasn't that bad.  Everyone in the infield?  F--king keystone cops.  They looked like clowns out there.  Embarrassing.  Just a debacle all around.  NOBODY did their job tonight.  EVERYBODY sucked.  On to L.A.

Can they turn it around?  Sure.  They've won 3 in a row a dozen times this year.  Maybe this is just a test for the Cubs.  Maybe they have to crawl across 500 yards of shit-smelling foulness to find their redemption.  Maybe this is their Shawshank. 

Or maybe they're just a bunch of head-case chokers and will never win a World Series.  We'll see on Saturday night. 

Cubs Sky is Falling

Quick email thread with my cousin, Jim:

Jim:  They have to win tonight.  They need a huge performance from Z.  I'm talking like 7 innings of 3 hit, shutout ball.  And they need, someone, anyone, to step up offensively.  I am so tired of seeing the big 3 choke in the playoffs.  They need to get Fukudome out of there and work some other guys in - Johnson, Fontentot.  Honestly I think they made a mistake leaving Hoffpauir off the playoff roster too.  I'd have kept him over Ward. 
 
In a nutshell, must win tonight.  It's amazing the ramifications this game has.  It will determine the series, if it's not already determined.  They win, it's huge, because they have Harden going in game 3 and I like that match up.  They lose, it's probably over. 
 
They need someone to come out and make a statement early in this game to get the positive vibes back - like Z strike out the side in the first or someone comes up with a big hustle play or something.  The negativity surrounding this franchise right now is just really eerie.

Mike:  Agreed.  I think the fan reaction worried me more than anything.  All the negativity in the building and waiting to fail is just killing the team.  Like when the Cubs gave up 8 runs after the Bartman play.   Shell shocked.  I'm convinced that a similar play on the road would have been overcomable.
 
Not sure about Hoffpauir over Ward.  It's pretty difficult to hit cold off the bench, and Ward always has good at-bats (even if he doesn't often get a hit).  I have never seen Micah get even a single hit off the bench.  That said, I may have taken him over Pie and considered starting him in right (even though he's fricking terrible on defense.  TERRIBLE.)  But I think DeRosa's hamstring (and subsequent limited range) prevented that from happening. 
 
Like you said, Z wins tonight or its over.  Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez REALLY need to step it up.  If they get swept, I might have to seriously start rooting for another team.

Jim:  Pie is a complete waste of a roster spot.  Like you said, Hoffpauir even though he's terrible defensively.  Pie only has value as a baserunner, which unfortunately the Cubs don't get too many of. 
 
If they get swept, I will sulk about it a lot - I mean, for a long time.  Inevitably I'll be back next year, but I think my mood would be forever changed about the Cubs.  This was the year.  Last year was a surprise.  2003 was a surprise.  They were dominant from start to finish this year, and if it culminated in a sweep, I'd just about lose all faith that this thing is ever going to end.  Lou's mood after the game was strange too - very melancholy and reserved. 
 
What do you think about the divisional series being switched to 7 games?  It's only 2 more games so you're not lengthening out the playoffs too much.  I just think that's part of the reason why you see so many of these teams come out of nowhere and go all the way.  There should be more reward for teams that have great regular seasons - of course, I'm saying this now, that my team is being burnt.  I don't know, just doesn't seem fair that a team works all season long to be great only to lose their season in basically 1 game. 

Mike:  You know, you're right.  I understood the Pie pick because of his defensive ability.  But even if DeRosa's hurt, they've got Edmonds, Johnson and Fukudome - who all can play anywhere just fine.  Dumb pick. 
 
Sure, I'd love a 7 game NLDS.  Better teams win more in longer series.  Personally, I think they should cut the season back to 154 games and do it.  No sense in having a longer regular season with 8 playoff teams now.  I talked about it yesterday in my blog.  Best way to get the best 2 teams is to ONLY take the best two teams.  No playoffs at all.  Cubs-Angels.  Done.  Not that I'm complaining, mind you.  If that were the case, this would be the Cubs first postseason since I was 14, and every single season since would have been a waste.
 
I will sulk and be incredibly pissed beyond belief if they get swept, but its too early to think about that.  And this series isn't over after one game, by any means.  Sure, NLDS history has 24 of 28 game one winners winning the series, but did you know AL is like 12-14 to the game one winners?  Yeah. 
 
I might be more concerned about Billingsley than Zambrano.  I can see Z throw 7 innings of 1-run ball, only to have Billingsley shut the Cubs out.  Typical Cubs.
 
Typical Cubs.

Jim:  The only good thing I've heard about Billingsley from a Cubs perspective is he has looked tired recently and has thrown more innings this year than ever.  I want to see counts worked deep. 
 
Ya know, this is the moment of truth.  At some point, if this thing is ever going to end, somebody is going to have to step up and do something big.  Either this happens, or they lose.  It's that simple.  If it happens, my bet is on someone like Fontenot or Johnson being the guy. 
 
It would be good to see the crowd into it from the start tonight too.  I think that would help a lot to get rid of the jitters. 

Game one goes to Dodgers

This was a pretty routine-looking loss for the Cubs so there's no sense in over-analyzing it. 

• Dempster had zero control.  Nevertheless, he still could have gotten out of it with one good pitch.  Too bad that one pitch went into the bleachers.  Just one of those days.
• The offense struggled, especially with guys on base.  Soriano, Lee, Ramirez - the big three didn't nothing with men on.  (Bases clear and two outs, though?  Money!)  Fukudome's struggles continued.  Look for Fontenot in the lineup Thursday with DeRosa back in right.  Maybe even Reed Johnson will be in there as a change of pace.
• Lou made some bad choices with his bullpen.  There was nothing wrong with the use of Sean Marshall; he threw fine and the fifth and sixth innings have to go to somebody outside of your core group.  You can't blame him for the pitch that Manny golfed into the bleachers.  My problem was with the next two guys.  Eighth inning, three run game.  Marmol should have been used in place of the shaky Samardzija.  What are you saving him for?  He hasn't pitched in five days and they have an off day Friday.  He can go two days in a row; so can Wood.  Then Marquis in the 9th - same thing.  Were you trying to put this game out of reach?  Pretty frustrating set of moves by Lou.  (Oh, and THAT's why you don't make postseason rosters, Jason.)
• Really weird crowd tonight at the game.  Aside from DeRosa's homer and a few 0-2 counts, the ballpark was clammed up.  Lots of nervous murmuring throughout, even before the grand slam by Loney.  I don't know.  Wrigley has more active crowds on Tuesday nights in May, and the fans in attendance should be ashamed.  Maybe they should all wear black tomorrow.

That's pretty much it.  Gotta go get 'em tomorrow.  Remember, anything less than a World Series appearance will be a massive disappointment.

Playoff talk and a Cubs-Dodgers NLDS Preview

I went to the Cubs Rally today in Daley Plaza, and I couldn't be more excited that the playoffs are finally starting.  Unlike the last few times the Cubs have made the playoffs, the Cubs are the universal pick to win their first series (against the Dodgers.)  Best record in the NL, best run differential in baseball, best OBP, best BA, 2nd best ERA, most strikeouts...  It's clear that the Cubs are the best team in the NL.  But oh, there's this:

"My s*** doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f****** luck." - A's GM Billy Beane

The playoffs are a complete crapshoot.  What happened over the last six months means precisely d*ck once the playoffs start.  Eight teams.  First one to win 11 games are the champs.  You have a slight advantage with better players, of course.  Better pitching especially.  But the beauty of baseball is any team can sweep any team.  Exhibit A thru Q in this argument is the 2006 Cardinals.  Obviously NOT the best team in baseball; probably not even in the top 8 teams.  But they snuck in and got hot in October and that's all there is to it. 

The best way to determine the best team in baseball is to go back to the way things were in the 1960s.  Take the best team from the AL and the best team from the NL and have them meet in the World Series.  The best teams are the teams with the best record over a 162 game season.  Top two teams meet, and you'll never have an un-worthy champion.  Well, let me rephrase.  Every team that wins the World Series deserves their trophy.  I guess I'm just re-iterating the fact that the best team doesn't always win.  In fact, since the wild card started in 1995, the team with the best record in baseball won the World Series exactly once.  The 1998 Yankees.  A better record doesn't even guarantee that you'll win a single series.  Since 1995, in all matchups, the team with the better record won only 49% of the time.  The team with the better run differential won 56% of the time.  So yeah, crapshoot.  (I got these numbers from Baseball Prospectus)

Do I want to go back to the way it was in the old days?  Heck, no.  Without the new format, this would be the first Cubs postseason appearance since 1989.  No game 163 in 1998, no Bartman in 2003, no division series sweep in 2007.  They barely would have contended into September during any of those seasons.  So I like the new format.  It gives fans across the country a rooting interest in baseball into October.  And the more times you make it to the show, the more chances you have to win it all.

Anyways, let's talk about this series.  The Dodgers have a pretty good team.  They finished the season only a handful of games over .500, but that doesn't tell the true story of their season.   Once they acquired Manny and got stooges Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones out of the lineup, they went on an absolute tear.  Their starting pitching really stepped up, their young hitters started to produce more consistently, and their bullpen solidified.  They may have only won 84 games, but they've been playing like a 95-win team since the All-Star break.  So despite the Cubs being "better across the board", this series is closer than it looks. 

I think its all going to come down to the Cubs starting pitching.  If the Cubs starters can throw seven innings, this series should be won by the Cubs.  After that, Marmol is lights out and Wood is solid enough.  I'm pretty sure that Dempster and Lilly are up to the task of throwing seven innings.  Harden?  Usually not but he's clearly got ace talent and is certainly capable.  Then there's Big Z.  Who knows what the Cubs will get out of him.  A "former Cub" told Tim Kurkijan that Biz Z freaks out in big games, that he can't even handle the pressure of Opening Day.  I'm curious as to who this former Cub is.  Pre-2007, this was a fair assessment.  Since then, he's been great in the spotlight.  Playoffs last year, 6 shutout innings (before being foolishly lifted by Lou.)  Opening Day this year, stellar matchup with Ben Sheets.  All-Star game, two scoreless innings.  First start in September after arm problems and the Cubs had been scuffling - no-hitter.  Z doesn't struggle in big games - he struggles in less-meaningful ones.  If Z's on, this Series will be done in four.

As for the Dodgers pitching, it's been really good of late, but on the whole I don't think any of these guys is markedly better than Ted Lilly.  They've got decent numbers...in a pitcher's park....in a lousy division.  They certainly have a deeper bullpen, though, and that's where the Cubs scare me most.  They've got nothin' after Marmol and Wood.  I can't believe Howry made the postseason roster.  He's f*cking awful.  Two out of every three appearances, he gives up run.  Every appearance, he gets hit hard.  He pitches, Cubs lose that game.  Mark it down.  I'd have gone with Weurtz, who has at least had three or four good outings this month.  I wouldn't exactly be excited about seeing Weurtz pitch, but I at least would have a shred of hope that he might not give up three runs. 

Anyways, back to the happy thoughts.  Home field advantage is huge for the Cubs.  The wind will probably be blowing in, which unlike years past has become a real advantage for the Cubs.  They're far more patient than the Dusty years, and they keep pitchers in the stretch and working hard all day.  Eventually, someone will come through with a big hit.  That's the Cubs mantra and it will serve them right here.  Cubs in 4.

P.S. Congrats to the Sox.  I'm sincerely excited to see to Chicago baseball teams play in October.  I can't even fathom a World Series matchup.

Baseball, Attendance and the Economy

You want to know what I'm starting to get sick of?  Big-city media criticizing towns for not selling out their games during the stretch run.  Last week, Mike & Mike were ragging on the Tampa Bay fans for not selling out their stadium for the Boston series; and then yesterday Mac, Jurko & Harry were criticizing Twins fans for leaving 10,000 seats empty (in their 50,000 seat football stadium) for the crucial Twins-White Sox series this week.  Ron Gardenhire, the Twins manager, cut Minnesotans some slack by saying it was a school night and the 40k in attendance did their job, etc.  The Rays don't have any defenders, or fans, so I'll pick up their cause.  They've been absolute garbage for ten years, fans want to see if they're for real, most teams don't experience their attendance boost until the year AFTER doing well, most of the local citizens are seniors (and transplants at that) and not game-attending types.  (Is that enough reasons or should I continue?) 

Anyways, want to know why else people aren't going to games?  It's the economy, stupid.  The world is going to hell in a handbasket, and you're wondering why people don't want to spend a few hundred dollars to take their family of four to a baseball game?  Think about it.  Forget recession, we're teetering on the brink of a full-blown depression.  Don't think for a moment that its not affecting people's "entertainment" budgets. 

Just look at the cost of tickets.  I'm not poor, but I'm not even close to being considered rich.  I've had the luxury of throwing 600 or 800 dollars per year at Cubs games the last few years, but next year I don't even think I'll have that much.  Would I love to go to a playoff game or two (or heaven forbid a World Series)?  Absolutely.  But I can't give up my kid's college education to do it.  The Cubs held a lottery for the right to buy NLDS tickets, and I of course didn't win.  Not unexpected to say the least.  Anyways, the day after they sold out, cubs.com sent me an email telling me that there are still plenty of great seats available on stubhub.  Awesome!  How much?  Oh.  Nevermind.  Standing room only is $115 a pop.  Average seats are $300-400.  Good seats are a grand.  Great seats?  Try $3000.  And that's for game one.  Imagine how much World Series tickets will cost.  Actually, don't imagine.  Somebody is selling row 9 behind the dugout for World Series game 3 for, get this, $32,000.  Are you freaking kidding me?  That's not much for the John Cusacks or Mark Cubans of the world, but I think it would disintegrate my bank.  Take the value of both my cars put together and double it.  Now I'm within five grand of that 32 G.

And this is just the beginning.  A year from now, we might look back at this conversation and laugh.  With all this going on, you were worried about the cost of baseball tickets?  Seems rather petty and insignificant, doesn't it?  But if a middle class fan can't buy tickets and the big money wall street types have all gone bankrupt, who's going to go to the games?  How are the Cubs going to pay Aramis Ramirez his $15 million?  Baseball might have to close shop.  (Actually, if we could somehow re-elect Bush for a third term, you KNOW that baseball would never go away.  Here, have $700 billion!  On second thought, maybe not.)

Ugh, this post has taken a wrong and ugly turn and I really didn't want to go there.  I just started typing and, well.... Anyways, this is a baseball blog and sports is supposed to be about escapism.  Something to keep your mind off your problems. 

Let's go, Cubs!

My Top 15 Favorite moments of the 2008 Cubs Season (so far)

Ever watch the TV Show Survivor?  If you haven't, it jumped the shark years ago so there's no point in starting now.  But if you have watched Survivor, I'm going to attempt to re-create a staple from their annual season finale.  The season-reflection segment, except I'm going to try to do it without sitting on the edge of a cliff and staring off into the sunset.  With the Cubs magic number down to two, it's time for a little reflection on what we've seen so far in this 2008 season.  Here's my favorite moments (so far).

1.  March 31: Opening Day, Kosuke Fukudome's game-tying homer in the 9th.  Howry ended up blowing the game in extras, but Fukudome's homer was a coming out party for our Japanese import.  He cooled off considerably the last few months, and Lou has been right to keep him out of the starting lineup lately.  Give him the offseason to regroup and make him the everyday right fielder again next year.

2.  April 25:  Reed Johnson's catch.  Another game the Cubs ultimately lost, but that's not the point.  This catch is the play of the year.  Excellent pickup by Hendry.

3.  April 29: Cubs 19, Milwaukee 5.  Warning: you're going to see a lot of Brewers games on this list.  I don't know what it is about Milwaukee, but since they moved to our division, there's been a half-dozen classic battles every year.  This particular game wasn't especially tight, but I was at Wrigley and had the best seats of my life.  Right behind home plate, five rows up.  Rookie-of-the-Year shoo-in Geovany Soto had a pair of homers and six RBIs in route to the slaughter.  The six-spot in the 8th was just icing on the cake, and the fans went nuts.

4.  May 18:  Cubs complete 8-2 homestand, with Alfonso Soriano's blistering bat to thank.  He won several of these games practically by himself.

5.  May 30: The Cubs score nine unanswered runs against the Rockies, in a miraculous 10-9 comeback.  Mark DeRosa supplied the heroics in route to his career year.  Even on vacation, I had a Dwight Smith flashback during this one. 

6.  June 12: WGN Turn-back-the-clock day.  Jim Edmonds, determined to prove me and the rest of the world wrong, hit a game-tying homer in the 9th.  At this point it seemed the Cubs would never lose at home again.  Also, Len Kasper's tribute to Jack Brickhouse on the home run call was excellent.  

7.  June 23: Cubs Sweep Sox.  While we won't mention what happened on the South Side a week later, it's always a treat to sweep your city rivals.  Aramis Ramirez was on nuclear fire in this series, with a game-tying homer in the 7th followed by a walk-off in the 9th on Friday.

8.  July 9: Cubs acquire Harden.  I was at Wrigley when I got a call from my friend telling me about the trade that announced to the world that the Cubs are for real this year.  They acquired a true "Ace" from Oakland, and all of a sudden they have the best rotation in baseball.  Oh, and they beat up on Dusty Baker's Reds that day, too.  Nice.

9.  July 15: The Cubs have seven representatives at the All-Star game in New York.  Big Z goes two scoreless and Ryan Dempster strikes out the side in the 9th in the midst of his out-of-nowhere season.  He's a legit Cy Young candidate.  (Not the winner, but as of now he's gotta be 2nd or 3rd.) 

10.  July 28: Ted Lilly outduels CC Sabathia in one of the most exciting mid-season games I've ever seen.  This was the start of a four-game sweep over Milwaukee, and the Cubs have never looked back.

11.  August 15: Ward's bomb.  I still can't believe it.  August was a great month for the Cubs. 

12.  September 14: Zambrano's No-Hitter.  Just what the doctor ordered.  Z's healthy; Astros are cooled off; Slump: over. 

13.  September 16:  Sabathia vs. Cubs, round 2.  The Cubs didn't need this one as bad as Milwaukee did, but nevertheless this was another  awesome game that I saw in person.   Carlos Marmol was his usual wicked-good self, and Kerry Wood matched up with the mammoth-homering Prince Fielder for an epic at-bat in the top of the 9th.  Cubs Win!  Sabathia gets first loss.  Go, Cubs, Go!  Magic Number down to 4.

14.  September 18:  Today's comeback vs. Milwaukee.  Down 6-2 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, the Cubs staged a remarkable comeback - highlighted by Soto's 3-run game-tying bomb.  Derrek Lee then followed with the game-winning knock in the 12th.  It sure would be nice if he heated up for the playoffs.  Magic Number?  2.

15.   September 20:  When they clinched the division, it sealed this team's fate as the best Cubs team of my lifetime.  Will they win it all?  Who knows, but they have as good a shot as anybody and so far its been one hell of a ride.   

ZambraNo-No! Big Z no-hits Astros

Today has been the exact opposite of last Sunday.  Last week, the Cubs blew a miserable game to Cincinnati in the 9th inning before the Bears had a shocking upset at night over the Colts (and thus rescuing my day).  Today, the Bears blew a lead and lost to the Panthers, and then Big Z goes and throws a no-no tonight against Houston -- in Milwaukee of all places.  Couple that with the deluge of unprecedented rain and redacted and you have yourself one heckuva weekend. 

It was the first no-hitter the Cubs have had since Milt Pappas in 1972, and of course the first Cubs one that I've ever seen.  (I've seen the ninth inning of non-Cubs no-nos a few times on ESPN.)  The closest any Cub has been since I've been watching is when Jamie Moyer made it to the 9th hitless in 1986.  I do remember watching that one.  There's been a number of other guys who went 7+ innings through the years, but none got especially close. 

This wasn't some clunky error/walk riddled no-no either.  Nine innings, 0 hits, 1 walk, 10 SOs.  Probably the best Cubs pitching performance I've ever seen live.  (Kerry Wood's 20k game in 1998 was probably better - with the one infield single - but I actually didn't see that one live.  Stupid work got in the way so I had to watch that one on replay later that night.)  Zambrano was masterful.  Full command of his pitches, painting corners, never once in a jam.  I guess his arm is ok, huh?

This couldn't have come at a better time for the Cubs.  After that wretched stretch of play earlier this month, with the hitters struggling and various pitchers on the shelf, the Cubs needed a dominant performance to set the tone for the rest of the regular season.  Enter Houston, or rather "enter Hurricane Ike."  MLB needed to get the games in so they sent the teams to Wrigley Field North.  23,000 Cubs fans made the last minute trip, and at least 20 Houston fans.  Who could imagine a weirder scenario for the Cubs to get their first no-hitter in 36 years?  Derrek Lee even had a big hit.

The whole situation did kind of suck for Houston.  Hurricane at home to worry about; last minute long travel plans; zero home field advantage; long winning streak.  Could this no-no been partially the result of some Ryan O'Malley type of hangover?  Maybe a little.  But Z was dealing and legitimately good.  I'll take it. 

This awesome Cubs high almost made me forget about the Bears.  The Bears lost today for three reasons:  1) Penalties, 2) Turnovers, and 3) Orton.  Way, way too many penalties.  They killed drives, called back great Forte runs, and surrendered excellent field position.  Then, Olsen had to go and fumble the ball twice.  Both times led to a Carolina score, and the comeback would not have been possible without those turnovers.  Simple as that.  Then, there's Kyle Orton.  Orton didn't make many mistakes - no fumbles, no picks - but he also didn't do anything to help the Bears win.  He couldn't make plays when they needed him most.  We all know that the long ball isn't his strength, and that couldn't have been more obvious today.  He had open receivers deep and just didn't come within a mile of any of them.  After two weeks, I've seen nothing to change my mind that "Kyle Orton doesn't lose games, and he doesn't win them either."  I don't think the Bears need to bench him or anything, as I'd like to see him start at least another four or five games before the Bears do anything rash.  If he continues to not win games, it might be time to develop some sort of "bullpen" strategy.  Let Kyle start and not screw things up.  Down in the fourth in need of a comeback?  Put in the gunslinger.  It's quickly becoming obvious that Orton is not the next Elway.

Ah, but who cares.  Big Z!! No-No!!  I can't believe it!

Cubs hanging in there

The Cubs beat the Cardinals tonight for the second consecutive night, after having lost eight of their previous nine games.  It was a pretty horrible stretch, and it was really starting to piss me off on Tuesday night, but all in all I can't complain too much.  The lead was and still is too big for me to get too worked up over a few (albeit miserable) losses.  (Thank you, Brewers!)  Barring a stretch of sub-.200 ball to close the season, the Cubs will make the playoffs.  Would I prefer that the Cubs pull their heads out of their collective asses?  Sure.  We all would.  But they're gonna make it.  What happens when they get there is another story.

Now, the glass-half-full crowd suggests that this stretch of lousy play is normal.  Check out this great post from Al at BleedCubbieBlue.  It shows how each of the last seven World Series winners all had a stretch of lousy, sometimes horrendous, play in the month of September before ultimately winning it all.  (Including the 2005 White Sox, who I mentioned in my last post.)

The seesawing teams is actually starting to become a staple of every MLB season, thanks to the Wild Card.  Teams coming, teams going; happens every September.  Look at Houston this year (and 2005 for that matter).  Left for dead, they went on incredibly winning streaks to finish the season.  Last year's Rockies, too.  Though, also note that neither team actually won the World Series; they were too spent and simply ran out of gas in October.  Maybe the Cubs will be one of the "lousy September" teams that barely hung on before getting hot at the right time in October.  One can dream, can't he?

Of course, you could also be the 2007 Mets, who blew a 7 game lead with 17 to play.  That's what we're trying to avoid here.  We don't need another 1969 on our hands. 

This is all to say I don't know what the hell's going to happen.  All I know is the magic number is 11 and the Brewers just keep on losing.  I'm just going to cross my fingers and go on with my life.

EAMUS CATULI

What? Me Worry?

I know I've been nitpicking the Cubs lately.  They win 9 of 10, have the best record in baseball, and I write a post about how the "little things" are going to kill them.  Or I do a historical post about how they've had crappy center fielders forever.  Now that the Cubs have been swept by the Astros and have lost five in a row overall, I'm going to pull the old switcheroo.  I'm not going to complain.  Not about this losing streak, anyways.

Every team has stretches where they play like absolute garbage.  You can't have a 162-game season without having a few losing streaks.  No hitting, lousy pitching, horrendous pen, errors, bad-baserunning - the whole nine.  Take the 2005 White Sox.  (Please.) They had a 15-game lead in August, entered September with a 9-game lead, played like crap down the stretch and let the lead dwindle to 1.5 games.  What happened in October?  Eleven and one. 

Not that I'm advocating a swoon or anything, I'm just saying this team is too talented and the lead is too big for the Cubs to miss the postseason.  They'd have to go something like 5-20 the rest of the way, while the Phillies play out of their minds, for the Cubs to miss the playoffs.  So I'm not concerned.  Yet.

What I am concerned about, of course, is team health.  Just get to October healthy and roll the dice.  First and foremost, I'm concerned about Carlos Zambrano.  The Big Z.  So he had a dead arm and skipped a start over the weekend?  No big deal, he just wanted to get out of his own personal hell month, right?  No.  Last night he was shaky and asked out after 5 innings and 86 pitches.  Ok.  Not too bad.  But wait, there's more.  Today, he was scheduled for a MRI but decided to skip it.  Then, he was a no show for the game.  Um, what?  He skipped the MRI?  What does he think they'll find?  He's on the shelf in October and the Cubs will no longer be the favorite.  They'd still be good, and have a chance to win it all, no doubt.  But they'd be no better than any of the other seven teams competing.  And that's not good enough for this Cubs fan.

To make matters worse, Rich Harden is experiencing "discomfort."  You don't say.  Harden says he could have pitched this week but Lou has wisely shut him down.  No big deal, right?  Tell you what, if they still have a 5 game lead come Monday, I'd push him back some more and continue to use him sparingly the rest of the way.  Get him healthy.  Don't risk it.  If our ace-in-name-only is on the bench, we absolutely need our young, fragile superstud starting multiple games in each round. 

In other words, if Marquis makes the postseason roster, consider the dream season over.  I'm just saying.

I guess still feel the need to complain.  Till next time...

Little Things Kill

There's very little to complain about in Cubland these days, so this will definitely sound a bit cavil.  (Especially if you're a Pirates fan - man, they're godawful.)  But I was watching the Cubs game today, and I was getting annoyed by the little things.  I mean, this is the best Cubs team I've ever seen, and I really am enjoying the heck out of this season.  I just can't stand watching when the Cubs screw up the easy plays and/or not hustle. 

Case in point: Alfonso Soriano.  I love watching him when he's hot, and when you come down to it he's the lone super-duper-star on the team.  But yesterday, he took his eye off the ball for a split-second, mid-hop I might add, and dropped the most routine of flyball outs.  This ultimately caused the Cubs to cough up the lead (temporarily).  I honestly think that even I would have had a 50% chance of making that play.  But for a major leaguer to drop it?  Without sun in his eyes?  Almost unheard of.  You might see one drop that bad in an entire season of watching baseball, and even would probably be because the guy was playing out of position.  

Then today, he had two more brain freezes.  In the first, he hit a double off the wall...which is great.  But had he even remotely hustled, it would have been a leadoff triple.  I wouldn't say that he was jogging, but he was definitely giving less than 75% effort on his way to first.  So frustrating.  A half inning later, Jack Wilson hit a weak liner to left, except he was running hard to first.  Soriano jogged over and bobbled the ball for a second, and that was all Wilson needed to make it to second.  (Aramis, of all people, benefited from a similar hustle play last week.)

And Soriano's not the only one.  I've found that Ryan Theriot routinely doesn't have his head in the game either.  Case in point, he got thrown out at third today (on a grounder) for like the 5th time this year.  That's Jacque Jones bad, and he hasn't gotten 1/100th of the crap that the much-maligned Jacque got.  I should know, I maligned Jacque very much.  Plus The Riot's been caught stealing almost as many times as he's been successful.  Rule is, if you're not successful at least 75% of the time stealing, you're actually hurting the team more than helping.  Don't steal, especially third, when you aren't positive you'll make it.

And I don't even want to get in to Zambrano's recent struggles.  Once a head case, always a head case.  I don't want to overreact on this, because he's always been prone to mid-season mini-slumps.  Ultimately, I think he'll be fine by the time September rolls around.  But how long will it be before he breaks a bone punching dry wall or busting a bat over his leg?  Talk about an avoidable injury.

All in all, I'd much rather have one Soriano giving 80% than a hundred Jack Wilsons giving 110%.  I'm not stupid.  I'm just saying it can be incredibly annoying to watch.  If one of those little plays causes a postseason series to be lost, the player in question will go down in infamy with Leon Durham, Bill Buckner, Alex Gonzalez, Fred Merkle, and the rest.  Hustling and playing smart would avoid half those problems.

Of course, the Cubs ended up doing the little things right in the 7th with the squeeze play and some smart baserunning. And, of course, they ended up sweeping the Pirates for about the ninth time this year.  And they're the best team in baseball, thirty-three games over .500 for the first time since 1945.  So I really have no right to complain in the slightest.  I'm just saying....